canderson Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Came to read the euro and 6z runs … what the heck happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: The 6z GEFS would be nice for many in here. Give up on the GEFS. One thing funny would be if the East solution actually were correct. Op will not budge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, canderson said: Came to read the euro and 6z runs … what the heck happened? Everyone is blaming you. Way to go 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, canderson said: Came to read the euro and 6z runs … what the heck happened? Russians apparently didn’t like the reliance on the EURO in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 10 minutes ago, kerplunk said: Been watching the GFS and EURO and still feeling good about 10+ with blowing and drifting during and after the storm for UNV. Think Altoona, Clearfield, and State College are all looking good. Yeah I think you guys are a lock, no matter what whiggle n jiggle this storm does. Were I you....i sit back, crack a Hi Life, and just wait and enjoy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Give up on the GEFS. One thing funny would be if the East solution actually were correct. Op will not budge Here is the 6z GEFS snow map. Maybe it scores an upset? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 10 minutes ago, Porsche said: I agree, my hope is for 4" before a changeover and hopefully get some ice to preserve the snowpack and then dryslot. Or the storm shifts about 50 miles east too I'd sign for that as well. Not a far fetched solution either. Most guidance has us safely in 3-6" ish. Throw some sleet on (wishcasting again) and dryslot us w/ a little mood flakes on tail end. Then cold comes to make it look Burle N Ives for a few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: Yeah I think you guys are a lock, no matter what whiggle n jiggle this storm does. Were I you....i sit back, crack a Hi Life, and just wait and enjoy. You’ve definitly hit on the right idea. If I were still a drinker, it would be a Grolsch for me. But some hot cocoa will do just fine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Man, I'm having such a hard time with this storm, really one of the trickier evolutions I've ever seen. If you told any of us that there would be a coastal getting its act together around Savannah on a day where we start with temps damn near the single digits we'd all take that to the bank. Unfortunately, nothing about this is that clean. Too much latitude is gained by the dueling Lows and the merge pulls the coastal too far west, allowing for the mid-level thermals to be breached in many areas. Heck, we even have to worry about surface temps overnight, and again, this on what started as perhaps our coldest day of the year. But such is life when those easterlies get screaming off the ocean, nothing we all haven't seen many times before. In short, this looks like a classic PA slop storm for those of us in the SC/SE part of the state. We should do alright with the front end WAA thump but then messy after that. The I99 corridor should do very well with this one, congrats to all out that way. One last IMBY tidbit, Lancaster County has been consistently showing up as one of the places with the tightest gradient in snowfall amounts, could easily see places south of Quarryville with only a couple inches and Elizabethtown with 6+". Going to be one heck of an interesting storm to watch unfold and while it's not too late to see some easterly jogs in the trajectory, I think the writing is on the wall for most of us down here in the Maryland border counties. No complaints here though, will gladly take my snow/sleet/ice/rain cake and run. Now let's bring this sucker home! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 13 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: My bar right now is 4”. Always seems that mixing events turn over quicker than modeled. I do think a lengthy period of sleet is possible. As long as I stay all frozen I’ll take the win I wish I didnt agree, but yeah, when taint is mentioned, it usually overpreforms 80/20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I wish I didnt agree, but yeah, when taint is mentioned, it usually overpreforms 80/20. Yes it does. As I said in the deleted thread, expecting 6 inches or less in my backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: I wish I didnt agree, but yeah, when taint is mentioned, it usually overpreforms 80/20. A couple of red taggers were mentioning last evening that this is the type of storm where the mix will occur even faster, and much farther N&W than the models currently indicate. It will be something to watch on Sunday PM/early Monday to see what happens out towards true Central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: I wish I didnt agree, but yeah, when taint is mentioned, it usually overpreforms 80/20. Something as well to watch is low level cold air. I have forecast low of 7 on sat night. Then clouds push in Sunday. Always under modeled and forecasted 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 This is Valentines Day 2007 again but with less snow for the 81/78 corridor. That storm SUCKED. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, canderson said: This is Valentines Day 2007 again but with less snow for the 81/78 corridor. That storm SUCKED. Agree. I could totally see a sleetfest occuring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: A couple of red taggers were mentioning last evening that this is the type of storm where the mix will occur even faster, and much farther N&W than the models currently indicate. It will be something to watch on Sunday PM/early Monday to see what happens out towards true Central PA. Yes. You can watch on the cc mode the mix line racing north and west and wonder when it’s going to stop 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: A couple of red taggers were mentioning last evening that this is the type of storm where the mix will occur even faster, and much farther N&W than the models currently indicate. It will be something to watch on Sunday PM/early Monday to see what happens out towards true Central PA. 1/19/19? 2/15/21? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 18 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: My bar right now is 4”. Always seems that mixing events turn over quicker than modeled. I do think a lengthy period of sleet is possible. As long as I stay all frozen I’ll take the win This is a fair expectation and yes, mixing almost always arrives earlier than modeled, and even before the radars shows it. How many times have we all seen the radar indicating the mix line at least 30 miles to our south and think we have a good bit of snow left, before hearing the pinging a mere three minutes later? Too many times to count. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 If I get 4” before 1-2” of sleet/zr I’d be ecstatic. I fear a huge bust and it’s a majority of a sleet storm. Wonder what 6” sleet looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Yes. You can watch on the cc mode the mix line racing north and west and wonder when it’s going to stop From a ton of experience I can’t tell you how many times in Pittsburgh we were forecasted to stay all snow 24hrs out only to have the mix line go well up past I-80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, canderson said: If I get 4” before 1-2” of sleet/zr I’d be ecstatic. I fear a huge bust and it’s a majority of a sleet storm. Wonder what 6” sleet looks like. It won't go anywhere for awhile, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 It’s back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, TimB84 said: 1/19/19? 2/15/21? Those, and quite a few more. The 1/19/19 storm sent me off the board for a while. Not one of my prouder moments. I learned from it, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, anotherman said: It won't go anywhere for awhile, that's for sure. 8 days and counting with no golfers. I could make a run at 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Seems as tho the thread was accidentally deleted by the author...ahem @Bubbler86 Anyway, I restored it and merged 3 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, Cashtown_Coop said: 8 days and counting with no golfers. I could make at run at 30 Correct me if I'm wrong here, but I kill all the golfers....they're gonna lock me up and throw away the key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Seems as the thread was accidentally deleted by the author...ahem @Bubbler86 Anyway, I restored it and merged IS @Bubbler86A LONGCON RUSSIAN MOLE?!?! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, canderson said: IS @Bubbler86A LONGCON RUSSIAN MOLE?!?! Canderson you’re off the hook 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 We’re back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 12 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Seems as tho the thread was accidentally deleted by the author...ahem @Bubbler86 Anyway, I restored it and merged I figured it had to do with something with me as it disappeared right when I replied to a message. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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