Central PA - Winter 2021/2022

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Many of the great storms mix at the height or end of the storm.

Both of our major 1 foot snow storms last year had mixing for a few hours.

It helps with snow preservation in the long run! 

Yea, was not saying anything to suggest bad vs. agree with Chris that we (even out this far) probably mix especially with the current depiction of the low(s) path. 

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Who know…spin the Wheel of the NAM and see what you get?

I think the NAM does much better under 48 hours…but sometimes it’s 4.8 hours out until it gets a clue.

I will not be comfortable until we get into Rap range 

[Blizzard of 93]

Here was the 18z GEFS ensemble in case it wasn’t posted earlier.

 

[Blizzard of 93]

Where the heck is @paweather ?

Major storm on the way & nothing from him?

 

[canderson]

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

Where the heck is @paweather ?

Major storm on the way & nothing from him?

 

I thought about him earlier today  - hope he’s ok. 

[pasnownut]

44 minutes ago, Voyager said:

I was talking about the left hook to the MD/WV panhandle before scooting ENE. I, too, remember many that came close and took off out to sea.

I was being playful w/ my wording...reread....dont blush 

[MAG5035]

Just now, canderson said:

I thought about him earlier today  - hope he’s ok. 

Wasn’t he travelling somewhere? 

[Blizzard of 93]

Here is the CTP current forecast discussion on this storm:

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Focus Sunday turns to the potential high impact and widespread
Winter Storm, whose surface reflection will be moving NE up
along the I-95 corridor Sunday into early Monday.

Initially P-type should be all snow and last for at least the
first half of the even, even across the SE half of the state,
where minor changes in the storm track could equate to major
differences in precip types and snow accum. Latest guidance
suggests a more western track, with WPC sfc prog for 12Z Monday
putting sfc low just northwest of KMDT. This would mean a mix
and or changeover from snow over a good part of central PA.

Highest confidence for a plowable and high impact snowfall
exists across the Central and Western Mtns ATTM, however, this
doesn`t rule out the potential for the heaviest snow to occur
near the I-81 corridor. Phasing of the initial split flow and
significant northern and slightly lagging nrn stream energy is
handled quite well with respect to timing and location by GFS
and EC along with their ensembles.

We increased pops 80-95 percent for the meat of the storm Sunday
night.

Main message is to pay attention to forecasts over the next
several days as/if confidence in details emerges. This certainly
has the makings of the largest storm of the winter thus far,
but much can change over the next 5 days. 

 

[pasnownut]

4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Where the heck is @paweather ?

Major storm on the way & nothing from him?

 

I think he's on vaca in Fla.

 

[Cashtown_Coop]

2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Here is the CTP current forecast discussion on this storm:

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Focus Sunday turns to the potential high impact and widespread
Winter Storm, whose surface reflection will be moving NE up
along the I-95 corridor Sunday into early Monday.

Initially P-type should be all snow and last for at least the
first half of the even, even across the SE half of the state,
where minor changes in the storm track could equate to major
differences in precip types and snow accum. Latest guidance
suggests a more western track, with WPC sfc prog for 12Z Monday
putting sfc low just northwest of KMDT. This would mean a mix
and or changeover from snow over a good part of central PA.

Highest confidence for a plowable and high impact snowfall
exists across the Central and Western Mtns ATTM, however, this
doesn`t rule out the potential for the heaviest snow to occur
near the I-81 corridor. Phasing of the initial split flow and
significant northern and slightly lagging nrn stream energy is
handled quite well with respect to timing and location by GFS
and EC along with their ensembles.

We increased pops 80-95 percent for the meat of the storm Sunday
night.

Main message is to pay attention to forecasts over the next
several days as/if confidence in details emerges. This certainly
has the makings of the largest storm of the winter thus far,
but much can change over the next 5 days. 

 

I want a refund on my point and click 

Sunday

Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a chance of snow in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30s. Chance of snow 50 percent. Wind chill values as low as 5 above. 

Sunday Night

Snow. Sleet in the evening, then freezing rain and rain after midnight. Little or no snow accumulation. Not as cool with lows in the lower 20s. Temperature rising into the lower 30s after midnight. Chance of precipitation 90 percent. 

Martin Luther King Jr Day

Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain, freezing rain and snow in the morning. Highs in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.

[Bubbler86]

9 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Wasn’t he travelling somewhere? 

I was not sure if this week or next but last year he still posted during his Florida trip.

[Cashtown_Coop]

In between nam panels I took the dog out and made a turkey sandwich 

[mahantango#1]

DT will have his first guess map out @1100pm

[pasnownut]

at 36 slp is about 5-7....maybe 8 miles south of 18z

Am I trying too hard...??

 

[Bubbler86]

12 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Nam stronger  with a closed 500 low at 33 

Hello gulf.

[pasnownut]

2 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

DT will have his first guess map out @1100pm

 

It only matters when his 4th guess comes out...then he says "he nailed it"

[Cashtown_Coop]

1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

at 36 slp is about 5-7....maybe 8 miles south of 18z

Am I trying too hard...??

 

Long as it gives you more snow 

[Rd9108]

1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

 

It only matters when his 4th guess comes out...then he says "he nailed it"

He doesn't even know where Pittsburgh is on a map.

[pasnownut]

6 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Long as it gives you more snow 

Gonna be what its gonna be....but boy can I gin up a storm like nobodys business.

Or maybe its just the gin.........

[pasnownut]

2 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

He doesn't even know where Pittsburgh is on a map.

Truth told, the dude knows his shit, but gets a bit too wrapped up in himself, and it really takes away from his talent.

[pasnownut]

2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

54 hour 1001mb Fl panhandle 

 

[Bubbler86]

4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

54 hour 1001mb Fl panhandle 

So far tha nam a lot like last night.

[Voyager]

Hour 60, the lows up near Birmingham, AL.

[pasnownut]

5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

54 hour 1001mb Fl panhandle 

running behind you a bit, but that is a pleasant surprise for sure.  Anxious to see what this may do up here.

[Bubbler86]

Just now, Voyager said:

Hour 60, the lows up near Birmingham, AL.

It jumps north.  That is different from yesterday. 

[Bubbler86]

The nam does not appear to be snow friendly unless it transfers and goes northeast.

[pasnownut]

Precip shield notably larger/more expansive vs 18z.  Looks like it took a big drink in the gulf

[Voyager]

At 66 the low's in Eastern Tennessee...

[TimB]

This is going to look a lot like 18z, I suspect.

[canderson]

This NAM  gulf fetch is crazzzzzzy.