canderson Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 The Germans have been incredibly consistent with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 from 33 and rain little east this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Is this west of last night Tick east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, canderson said: The Germans have been incredibly consistent with this system. Das einheitlich. They are being taken a lot more seriously on the MA this go around. For every post that says they are ignoring the Nam and Icon, there are two or three which actual do real model analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 17 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Did you intentionally say this to goad me? No, I definitely do not love snow maps. I hate 'em, period. I've said this before but never explained why...here's one reason, and I hope you can appreciate where I'm coming from. 72 hours ago there were multiple snow maps that showed our 'hoods with numbers like 21.7", 19.8", and another with 18.8". I know this because...they all ended up in my inbox at work. And they came from a higher pay grade than I am, which in layman's terms means the executive team. Once again, I had to tirelessly start explaining that the maps were highly inaccurate, and why they were. Keep in mind, I work with 950 people, and to my knowledge the only other person here who knows what a GFS, NAM, EURO, CMC, and ICON even are is daxx. When these people get a hold of these maps (from social media) they honestly believe that what they see is coming. Then it's up to me from walking them off the ledge. They're coming to me with staffing questions, potential shift shutdowns, yadayadayada, and it leaves me feeling like I really wish those maps would disappear. We here...we understand. We get it. (at least most of us) We know...well, we just know not to take anything verbatim. Sadly, the world around us does not. I can say I personally appreciate your position with snow maps and in my opinion, you are correct as to them not being a very accurate predictor of anything until 72 hours and in. They are fun to look at though so I do post them sometimes. I can say the best thing about your post is that you do not go out of your way to grind the anti snow map thoughts in when someone posts one. No one wants a group professor going around trying to look smart by correcting and "teaching" them. LOL. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Tick east Good news is that while the ICON comes at us, it then scoots NE down around DC/Bal area. Mitigates some damage for us LSV'rs. 500LP still taling behind, and not vertically stacked, but would be close enough to be the cuprit for the tucked solutions. Still like the trends with enough time left. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 Icon up on TT. I like that it dips well south, ala Nam, and scoops up some fresh Gulf moisture before turning North East. Both it and the Nam really look close to a Miller A. Icon does get dragged back inland for a bit before transferring back to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 20 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: CNN has a article up. 12-18 for MAG and myself. The rest of you lot, bunions and bunion-free, 8-12. Think your chances to score big with this look pretty good. I’d be okay with a foot. But my feet are killing me so am inclined to think this will be bigger AND with lots of wind both during and after for some nice blowing and drifting. Been a very long time since I’ve seen that. All the elements are certainly there. Which hasn’t happened in quite awhile for my location. Just a matter of everything aligning just right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I like the parallels to March 1994. Not because I remember that storm specifically but because I had 70" of snow that winter (living in north jersey) along with a ton of ice, especially in January. Of course, January 1994 is quite noteworthy for us in the LSV as in 8 days we will observe the 28th anniversary of the coldest temperature ever recorded in Harrisburg (at least since 1888) with a low temperature of 22 below zero. I'm guessing that out this way there were some readings even colder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 This should make a few happy. Jury is still out for me.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: This should make a few happy. Bring it home. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: This should make a few happy. Jury is still out for me.... Not until those dark blues are over the Skook... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, kerplunk said: Bring it home. We're trying pal... Wishing you def bands and snowdrifts.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: I like the parallels to March 1994. Not because I remember that storm specifically but because I had 70" of snow that winter (living in north jersey) along with a ton of ice, especially in January. Of course, January 1994 is quite noteworthy for us in the LSV as in 8 days we will observe the 28th anniversary of the coldest temperature ever recorded in Harrisburg (at least since 1888) with a low temperature of 22 below zero. I'm guessing that out this way there were some readings even colder. 1994 shows up on the Nesis list several times. I was a young buck but I do remember the extreme cold and being off school that whole week. And maybe the most sleet I can remember from a single storm, something like 6” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: I like the parallels to March 1994. Not because I remember that storm specifically but because I had 70" of snow that winter (living in north jersey) along with a ton of ice, especially in January. Of course, January 1994 is quite noteworthy for us in the LSV as in 8 days we will observe the 28th anniversary of the coldest temperature ever recorded in Harrisburg (at least since 1888) with a low temperature of 22 below zero. I'm guessing that out this way there were some readings even colder. Great info, I love talking about that winter. One thing I remember fairly well is there wasn't a huge disparity in the overnight lows. I also recorded -22, and I think that most stations in the area were all within a degree or two of that mark. That, and the incredible lasting power of the snow/ice glacier that seemed to never go away. For weeks my neighborhood (I lived in Centerville at the time) was nothing but 2 deep ruts sandwiched around a deep ice pack. As long as you stayed in the ruts you were okay, but when you went up onto the pack it threw you around pretty good! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, Voyager said: Not until those dark blues are over the Skook... I get ya....but I'd still trade seats w/ you for this one.... Starting to think mix threat will be further mitigated, but still not sure if eliminated yet. That damn SLP coming due north chaps my ass. As of last pic I shared, it has to be the ULL doing the tug a lug in an attempt to stack which pulls it W until it hits the colder dome and heads NE. Thats just me spitballin though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I get ya....but I'd still trade seats w/ you for this one.... Starting to think mix threat will be further mitigated, but still not sure if eliminated yet. That damn SLP coming due north chaps my ass. As of last pic I shared, it has to be the ULL doing the tug a lug in an attempt to stack which pulls it W until it hits the colder dome and heads NE. Thats just me spitballin though. We shall see on trading seats. I know we often mix/flip early in these setups as currently depicted. This storm so far is just fascinating and frustrating at the same time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 14 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I can say I personally appreciate your position with snow maps and in my opinion, you are correct as to them not being a very accurate predictor of anything until 72 hours and in. They are fun to look at though so I do post them sometimes. I can say the best thing about your post is that you do not go out of your way to grind the anti snow map thoughts in when someone posts one. No one wants a group professor going around trying to look smart by correcting and "teaching" them. LOL. I know that the overwhelming majority of people like them. I certainly respect and appreciate that on several levels, and it's not something for me to get worked up over and cause unnecessary friction. Thank you for understanding and sharing that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 10 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: 1994 shows up on the Nesis list several times. I was a young buck but I do remember the extreme cold and being off school that whole week. And maybe the most sleet I can remember from a single storm, something like 6” Speaking of compares, I have a Florida radio station on in the background...that has a real met that comes on. He is taking the Nam very seriously and invoking his own compare but using March '93. He does admit its not as wound up. Apparently the sirens are going off in Florida for high winds and somewhat extreme cold post storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Speaking of compares, I have a Florida radio station on in the background...that has a real met that comes on. He is taking the Nam very seriously and invoking his own compare but using March '93 though he admits its not as wound up. Apparently the sirens are going off in Florida for high winds and somewhat extreme cold post storm. GFS has the low north of nam for sure edit at 63 jumps down to gom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: GFS has the low north of nam for sure edit at 63 jumps down to gom It is North of the Nam even with that jump. Has two areas of LP at 78. Only one shows (the lowest) on the panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Speaking of compares, I have a Florida radio station on in the background...that has a real met that comes on. He is taking the Nam very seriously and invoking his own compare but using March '93. He does admit its not as wound up. Apparently the sirens are going off in Florida for high winds and somewhat extreme cold post storm. One of the memorable things about March ‘93 (aside from a great storm here) was the extreme weather still in the South while the storm was in progress here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 To me the GFS seems to be having lots of issues dealing with how to handle the capture. Just grinds away in S Va for 6-12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: To me the GFS seems to be having lots of issues dealing with how to handle the capture. Yeah. Hr 90 jumps off coast. 96 looks classic with deform across PA more of a normal look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Yeah. Hr 90 jumps off coast. 96 looks classic with deform across PA more of a normal look Also noticed for the eastern half of PA, the snows maps are better at 10-1 (vs kuch) for some locales. Close to the same at others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Yeah. Hr 90 jumps off coast. 96 looks classic with deform across PA more of a normal look Also, having the 3 hour panels on Pivotal does make it look more jumpy. Run through it on TT and its a more normal progression as to the look though in hour 90 you can see the "other low" sitting over VA ruining what would otherwise look like a great track for us,. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Yeah. Hr 90 jumps off coast. 96 looks classic with deform across PA more of a normal look This is what I've been waiting for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 yeah, a beauty 6 minutes ago, pasnownut said: This is what I've been waiting for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 17 minutes ago, kerplunk said: One of the memorable things about March ‘93 (aside from a great storm here) was the extreme weather still in the South while the storm was in progress here. I remember watching James Spann live from Birmingham on Friday night (night before our impact) and he had a comrade were outside the station and it was surreal...they got 13" of snow in area that hardly sees anything. It was blowing and drifting like it does around here at times. Cool stuff for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 18 minutes ago, kerplunk said: One of the memorable things about March ‘93 (aside from a great storm here) was the extreme weather still in the South while the storm was in progress here. Yea. That was what it may me think of when I headed the Florida met. Still not where near as devastating (modeled) as March 93 but with the more recent trend for the low to go over or near the peninsula, it has some compares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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