canderson Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 29 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 15 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Just hit 40 slightly before my nooner. 12 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Triple 3's here at the moment - 33.3 6 minutes ago, canderson said: 29 here 28 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Yep pasnownut it is getting there.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Ukie holds with the coastal idea...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Encouraging runs. Only 4-5 more days to go. Second glance GFS showing a lot of pink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 WPC def favoring a coastal track 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 9 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Ukie holds with the coastal idea...... Thats from last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Came west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 32 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: So the question becomes - will the pattern support an adjustment east with the LP? With so many moving parts/variables....I ask you or others....why not? I get the whole east west ridge trough thingy, its been used as a tool for decades, but if it were that easy, we'd have nothing to chat about. Furthermore, we're not asking for 500 miles of moving here, were looking for 50-100 that makes a huge difference in our backyards....so yeah I say why not. Lastly, as I've done for some time, I put my thoughts out and follow them up w/ my logic/reasoning, and I don't wait to jump on any bandwagons or to make sure I'm right. Thats not my jam or why I'm' here. Right or wrong, I hope peeps that read my garble know that I'm not afraid to jump on something. After all...as weenies, that's what the fun of forecasting is isn't it? Now for more fun....off to the dentist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cfbaggett Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 12Z GFS MSLP operational vs 12Z GEFS MSLP ensemble members. Operational still on the northwestern envelope of the ensemble spread. but maybe not as far NW as the 6Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Usually this is when the Euro comes in to crush our dreams. But maybe it holds steady this time.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 10 minutes ago, anotherman said: Usually this is when the Euro comes in to crush our dreams. But maybe it holds steady this time.... The Euro used to follow the Ukie (and vice versa) but not sure that's accurate any longer. Ukie did come west today at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 23 minutes ago, pasnownut said: With so many moving parts/variables....I ask you or others....why not? I get the whole east west ridge trough thingy, its been used as a tool for decades, but if it were that easy, we'd have nothing to chat about. Furthermore, we're not asking for 500 miles of moving here, were looking for 50-100 that makes a huge difference in our backyards....so yeah I say why not. Lastly, as I've done for some time, I put my thoughts out and follow them up w/ my logic/reasoning, and I don't wait to jump on any bandwagons or to make sure I'm right. Thats not my jam or why I'm' here. Right or wrong, I hope peeps that read my garble know that I'm not afraid to jump on something. After all...as weenies, that's what the fun of forecasting is isn't it? Now for more fun....off to the dentist. Fair questions and valid points. I guess what I'm looking for is what will cause the ridge axis to shift into a favorable position? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just posted by psuHoffman in MA. One of a handful of posters there who I pay attention to: I think we’re still in the game for a very significant storm but I don’t think this has HECS 20”+ potential for 95. I don’t think anyone is expecting that. We have a -NAO but not a true block. 95 really does need a classic block usually to get those storms. Also what’s going on across Canada isn’t ideal for those hecs storms. The trough amplifying there will pull this north. To get a hecs we typically want the storm cut off from the NS there and higher pressure over the top. That’s when we get a storm to crawl to off the Delmarva then slide ENE. This is going to lift north pretty sharply. This will be a storm that runs the coast. Kinda old school, these used to be way more common than recently. And they can be pretty good but not 20” good in DC usually. The key will be how far southeast we can get the H5 before it gets captured and lifts north and how much resistance the cold can make to get a really nice WAA thump. Any deform is bonus. The 2014 storm was this type. One of the 1987 storms was and worked out to like 10” in DC. There was a similar storm to this evolution in 66 that was good in DC. There are also examples where this can go wrong if the h5 gets captured too soon. That’s why faster is better. Get it into the southeast before the trough amplified and it lifts. There were 2 storms in 1994 that remind me of this also. Early January and one in early March. Those were more ehh with like 2-4 in DC and a lot more west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Here we go! let see where she goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Looks like it’s heading west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Where will she go next!? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Caving to the GFS? Looks so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 24 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Here we go! It still makes me smile to see someone else excited about a model starting (I am as well when I have time). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Cashtown_Coop said: For us, thump then dry slot. But not a classic Miller A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Snow map still looks decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Bubbler86 said: For us, thump then dry slot. But not a classic Miller A Called it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Not the best look. I think we want this to come in faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: Not the best look. I think we want this to come in faster. Thump looks pretty stout though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Snow map still looks decent We want that WAA to come in like it's nobody's business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Called it. Yes you did. Pitt stole our deform. The TimB Blizzard of 22. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: Thump looks pretty stout though! Sittin in dr office. Gfs op leads the way fir the biggies. Hoping ens are still se or I’ll need a rubber ducky and not a shovel. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Where will she go next!? Answer: She goes north. Although the snowfall is still quite robust. 'Tis one model run 4+ days out, gaggles of adjustments yet to sort out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Verbatim, on this run, it's still about a foot of snow for the I-81 corridor with amounts a bit more N&W and less S&E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now