Bubbler86 Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, anotherman said: 6Z Euro Ensemble What a stark difference from the Icon (realizing this is a smoothed out ensemble average) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 On today's 12Z GFS, the main area of LP is about 400-500 miles NW of the 12Z placement yesterday for Sunday afternoon. Though there is some hint of redevelopment closer to the coast. Makes for a tricky call with it getting up that far West into Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Super clean panel here ha..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 Then the new area of LP, near the coast, takes over and goes Due North or a bit West of North into Central PA putting a driving rain storm into a lot of Eastern PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 GFS still wants to plow straight north through central PA. I for one am not buying it, but it is a player on the field at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 The Kuch for the 12Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 QPF for the storm, heaviest snow west of 11/15...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Bubbler86 said: The Kuch for the 12Z GFS Seems better than 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: GFS still wants to plow straight north through central PA. I for one am not buying it, but it is a player on the field at this point. Agreed. If you parse over, you can see it "coming around" to a better coastal solution. Not there yet, but I saw enough +'s to not be too worried yet. That HP needs to anchor a bit more, and things will correct to a much nicer solution IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, anotherman said: Seems better than 0Z. Here is a more smoothed over look I saw from Wxbell/MA. Makes is seem less bad, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Agreed. If you parse over, you can see it "coming around" to a better coastal solution. Not there yet, but I saw enough +'s to not be too worried yet. That HP needs to anchor a bit more, and things will correct to a much nicer solution IMO. Exactly, you can see slow but steady improvement. Apologies to our western PA friends for my use of the word "improvement" ha. As always, theses things are relative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Exactly, you can see slow but steady improvement. Apologies to our western PA friends for my use of the word "improvement" ha. As always, theses things are relative. Ens guidance should hopefully narrow things a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Here is a more smoothed over look I saw from Wxbell/MA. Makes is seem less bad, GFS holding steady. I still say euro is coming west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Cashtown_Coop said: GFS holding steady. I still say euro is coming west It actually came east a bit. Maybe that means the west trend stopped for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Great, albeit lengthy writeup by Kyle Elliott at MU last night. Essentially, he believes the most likely scenario is pretty much what the GFS is showing...the ridge axis out west looks to set up to the west of Boise, Idaho. For the LSV to get a major snowstorm we'd want the ridge axis set up to the east of Boise. This would allow the low to plow northward through PA and bury the Appalachians. So, he's giving the GFS full props at this point. On terms of percentages, this is where he's at: Track through CPA: 45% Track up the coast: 30% Southern slider/out to sea: 25% He emphasized (obviously) that there are a ton of moving parts and things can/may change quickly and significantly; HOWEVER, he believes that the pattern supports the storm heading up through PA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said: GFS holding steady. I still say euro is coming west You bite your tongue! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said: GFS holding steady. I still say euro is coming west See my last post - a pretty good met from MU is in your camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 Being discussed on the MA board but here is a panel showing an area we really need improvement for a mostly snow event (LSV). It's really not even close for the LSV with the 850 low in Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: GFS holding steady. I still say euro is coming west That seems to be a consensus opinion among many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 14 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The Kuch for the 12Z GFS I sign anywhere? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Great, albeit lengthy writeup by Kyle Elliott at MU last night. Essentially, he believes the most likely scenario is pretty much what the GFS is showing...the ridge axis out west looks to set up to the west of Boise, Idaho. For the LSV to get a major snowstorm we'd want the ridge axis set up to the east of Boise. This would allow the low to plow northward through PA and bury the Appalachians. So, he's giving the GFS full props at this point. On terms of percentages, this is where he's at: Track through CPA: 45% Track up the coast: 30% Southern slider/out to sea: 25% He emphasized (obviously) that there are a ton of moving parts and things can/may change quickly and significantly; HOWEVER, he believes that the pattern supports the storm heading up through PA. Thanks for adding that. Great to put a reason to the results on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Getting there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 @Cashtown_Coop, we are not holding on to just snow long once that 850 low moves from Kentucky to Ohio. The primary is not giving up fast enough regardless of where the new Surface low goes once it forms to our South. Need the 850's to collapse which means a much sooner transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Thanks for adding that. Great to put a reason to the results on the models. In terms of science, a ridge axis positioned where it's projected to be will be a rainer in the LSV. (after an initial thump) That's what the met said. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 7 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Getting there So the question becomes - will the pattern support an adjustment east with the LP? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: So the question becomes - will the pattern support an adjustment east with the LP? looking over 500s and was a 2 contour closed 500 lp, you can now see it opens up slightly (this would argue for a slightly less wound up solution and should/could help thermal boundary for us eastern folks). Again, I'm not saying its happening, but as one knows, this is the time to look for trends...good or bad. Just a verbatim obs...I look at this timestamp because this is when our precious thermals start to erode, so I'm looking for S and E adjustments for my logic to hold. If it doesnt...I'm always learning and never profess to have all of the answers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just hit 40 slightly before my nooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Just hit 40 slightly before my nooner. Triple 3's here at the moment - 33.3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 and one more to share. Op GFS Wonder Twins. Less diggy and one notably SE of the Op. Next panel shows even more separation. Ok now I'm done. Gotta run. Hope this helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Triple 3's here at the moment - 33.3 The farther east one goes, the less heat up today per the short term models I looked at. You may stay in the mid to upper 30's. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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