Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 4 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Bingo. Started seeing the Susqu river wall forming late yesterday on some guidance. As you stated, always winners n loseres, but with an event like this, there isnt a ton of forcing issues, but it may be a reflection of SLP jumpin and jippin....dunno. Like I said, its noise to me at this juncture, but its a possibility. Dont care really. I want snow...i'm getting snow...I'm good. Agreed, noise. My 2-4" outlook still stands and we're still looking at a cold column with solid ratios. One of the lesser variable events around these parts if we're being honest. Like you said, snow is coming. I will always sign up for that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 CTP ha bumped up MDT’s grid forecast to 2-4”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Non-snow question real quick - for those that have weather stations, did any of you have a sudden, short spike in wind gusts between 4:00AM - 5:00AM? As I've stated before, my station is not set at a location to accurately measure wind speed. In fact, since I've had my current station up and running the past 3 years, my top wind gust recorded is 22.6mph. All night, my wind was between calm and 1.8 mph. From 4am to 5am, I had multiple gusts approaching 15mph. Judging from what I "heard", I'd guess the actual gusts were in the 30mph range or so. Did anyone else record this? As quickly as the winds came, they went back to calm in less than an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Yes indeed. Actually was the 24hr high. Had a gust to 30 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 NO WSW this time that will be sometime during the week of the 15th 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Yes indeed. Actually was the 24hr high. Had a gust to 30 It seemed odd to me how quickly the wind ramped up and then died within such a short period of time. Similar to a storm rolling through, but with clear skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Start time is going to be interesting - CTP doesn't have the snow reaching the Susky until 10pm. That's WAY later than some of the short term models indicate. Not sure what they use, and not saying it will be wrong. Their graphic doesn't have snow reaching Bubbler until about 7pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: Start time is going to be interesting - CTP doesn't have the snow reaching the Susky until 10pm. That's WAY later than some of the short term models indicate. Not sure what they use, and not saying it will be wrong. Their graphic doesn't have snow reaching Bubbler until about 7pm. Most Model start time is around 6-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 58 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Close up Looks like I need a little "crossing swords" to get more snow.....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 21 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: It seemed odd to me how quickly the wind ramped up and then died within such a short period of time. Similar to a storm rolling through, but with clear skies. Don’t have a wind station, but was awakened in the middle of the night by the windows rattling and walls making noises. This is very unusual for my place as it’s kind of sheltered and I rarely hear the wind. Mostly only notice it by the taller trees swaying across the road. So a strong gust must have blown through here. And it was quickly here and gone - at least judging by the sound of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Hey @Voyager I see Tamaqua beat Jim Thorpe in wrestling last night 45-27, bet you're riding high! And yes I completely understand that the odds of you caring about this post or even having any idea what I'm talking about are slim 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Another reasonable depiction from the RGEM. Again, we are honing in on consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 6, 2022 Author Share Posted January 6, 2022 28 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Start time is going to be interesting - CTP doesn't have the snow reaching the Susky until 10pm. That's WAY later than some of the short term models indicate. Not sure what they use, and not saying it will be wrong. Their graphic doesn't have snow reaching Bubbler until about 7pm. That tongue (that is what it is, right...a tongue?) of moisture going north of me could delay it here a bit. HRRR starts in Harrisburg before me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 14z HRRR looks sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: That tongue (that is what it is, right...a tongue?) of moisture going north of me could delay it here a bit. HRRR starts in Harrisburg before me. Based on progression of this event, I think we can all agree that you will be snowing before HBG. Thats the stuff that makes me scratch my head we short term messo's. If I'm wrong...find me another crow....I got the magic injection recipe to make it taste like chickn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 20 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Hey @Voyager I see Tamaqua beat Jim Thorpe in wrestling last night 45-27, bet you're riding high! And yes I completely understand that the odds of you caring about this post or even having any idea what I'm talking about are slim Haha... I didn't know, but that's cool! Back when I moonlighted as a newspaper photographer, I probably would have been there covering it, but now, I work way too many hours trucking. As for the snow, I have mixed feelings. I'd have been much happier if it came Friday night instead of tonight...lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 14 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: That tongue (that is what it is, right...a tongue?) of moisture going north of me could delay it here a bit. HRRR starts in Harrisburg before me. maybe one is a tongue and the other a pecker.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 6, 2022 Author Share Posted January 6, 2022 3 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Based on progression of this event, I think we can all agree that you will be snowing before HBG. Thats the stuff that makes me scratch my head we short term messo's. If I'm wrong...find me another crow....I got the magic injection recipe to make it taste like chickn. I was not making a forecast just discussion like usual...I agree you would think it arrives here before Harrisburg but there are reasons why it would not. I am only 50 miles from Harrisburg as well. Not as far out as some might think. Parts of Cumberland County are to my West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 6, 2022 Author Share Posted January 6, 2022 Just now, pasnownut said: maybe one is a tongue and the other a pecker.... That was what I was going for. You and Atomic are fast thinkers. :-) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said: Non-snow question real quick - for those that have weather stations, did any of you have a sudden, short spike in wind gusts between 4:00AM - 5:00AM? As I've stated before, my station is not set at a location to accurately measure wind speed. In fact, since I've had my current station up and running the past 3 years, my top wind gust recorded is 22.6mph. All night, my wind was between calm and 1.8 mph. From 4am to 5am, I had multiple gusts approaching 15mph. Judging from what I "heard", I'd guess the actual gusts were in the 30mph range or so. Did anyone else record this? As quickly as the winds came, they went back to calm in less than an hour. Yes I did. Corresponding with that was a rapid rise in temps before they crashed again. From 3:20am to 4:20am the temp shot up from 25 to 33, then dropped sharply afterward. There was also a light dusting of snow on my Jeep, and any bare ground where the dog killed the grass. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: That was what I was going for. You and Atomic are fast thinkers. :-) now i really want them to meet.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: now i really want them to meet.... Pecker missed the tongue and end up in the turd cutter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 I also had a sudden increase in winds between 3:00 and 4:00, though not nearly the magnitude. Highest gust was 12 mph. (My anemometer is partially sheltered as well). I was at my low of the night at 22.3 at 2:47 just as the winds began and one hour later at 3:46 I reached my high of the day at 35.2. Right now I'm locked in at 30 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Very solid GFS run. Say it with me, consensus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Lock it up!!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Very solid GFS run. Say it with me, consensus. This matches well with channel 8 map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 7 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Very solid GFS run. Say it with me, consensus. Heres another for your consensus pal. We got this. Time to enjoy some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Haven't seen TimB. Guessin its cause he yanked the snow max over his way and doesnt wanna share w/ us . Good for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 I dare say that WGAL map show earlier looks rather reasonable. Turnpike special... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 26 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Pecker missed the tongue and end up in the turd cutter. right past Hummelstown into downtown Hershey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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