Cashtown_Coop Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I dont have off hr access to Euro, but all other models that have storm are not B's....as there is no transfer regarding SLP. Precip outputs may present as a B, but technically, its just us finding another way to get jipped... LP was moving up nice a steady then moved couple hundred miles in 3 hr frame so thats my ob of Miller B. As you stated precip shows how to get jipped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 I’m not feeling this storm at all for some reason. If the GFS caves, ok, but until then I’m erring on the side of a continued whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, canderson said: I’m not feeling this storm at all for some reason. If the GFS caves, ok, but until then I’m erring on the side of a continued whiff. Inside 90 hours now and euro rock steady. Plus GEFS looks good. I feel good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, canderson said: I’m not feeling this storm at all for some reason. If the GFS caves, ok, but until then I’m erring on the side of a continued whiff. It’s coming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Agree . There's not a definitive look in most guidance of a transfer. More like enhancement once it gets at our latitude over water Either way, it robs parts of CPA of qpf, and therefore good snow amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 I was writing the below before several of you were already describing things the way I have below...so I'm just adding my two cents... Is this really a Miller B? the low starts out down in central Alabama and moves northeast to northwestern Georgia, to north central South Carolina, to just off the southern Virginia coast, and then the jump happens up to southeast of NYC. But, the jump doesn't happen until the low is practically at the coast. A "jump" is more of a low pressure well inland, coming northeast over the Appalachians heading up towards southwest PA with the jump taking place there to the coast as a new low pressure center, and then redeveloping / strengthening moving northeast from there. In our case while there appears to be a "jump", the low is already at the coast before the jump. It almost has more of a Miller A'ish look to it, but regardless, the MA appears to receive the jackpot once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Down to 20 degrees already. I'm wondering if I make a run at low teens/single digits even without snow cover tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, Voyager said: Down to 20 degrees already. I'm wondering if I make a run at low teens/single digits even without snow cover tonight? 23 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 18 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I've noticed over all these years that in Pa that most times there's a " Shadow" or screw zone in North Central Pa with Miller Bs or hybrid transfers . Just been my memories over the last 25 + years. Hopefully all see something because today was 0.0" . It goes up from here lol This is why Elmira, NY only averages around 40 inches a year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 31 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: I was writing the below before several of you were already describing things the way I have below...so I'm just adding my two cents... Is this really a Miller B? the low starts out down in central Alabama and moves northeast to northwestern Georgia, to north central South Carolina, to just off the southern Virginia coast, and then the jump happens up to southeast of NYC. But, the jump doesn't happen until the low is practically at the coast. A "jump" is more of a low pressure well inland, coming northeast over the Appalachians heading up towards southwest PA with the jump taking place there to the coast as a new low pressure center, and then redeveloping / strengthening moving northeast from there. In our case while there appears to be a "jump", the low is already at the coast before the jump. It almost has more of a Miller A'ish look to it, but regardless, the MA appears to receive the jackpot once again. Well said. We are in good shape. There is a lot of upside to this storm. Way to early to worry about precip totals or jackpot areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 50 minutes ago, Voyager said: Now you done went and jinxed it... I’ve not touched my snowblower or sleds yet as I didn’t want to jinx it. Maybe I need to start playing with them to tell the weather gods….we’re ready… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 42 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: LP was moving up nice a steady then moved couple hundred miles in 3 hr frame so thats my ob of Miller B. As you stated precip shows how to get jipped Gotcha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 43 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Agree . There's not a definitive look in most guidance of a transfer. More like enhancement once it gets at our latitude over water That sounds like a great way to describe…… jipped 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 4, 2022 Author Share Posted January 4, 2022 Feel like I am missing out on the Miller talk but Miller or not, assuming we are talking 18Z Euro, there something going on off the coast at hour 78....see circled area below. At hour 84 that something now has an elongated look to it like it is absorbing the first low (and the moisture). That is my non professional take on the precip hole. It may have already been said as I missed some of the posts. I saw another post stating that it was a change in where the model focused showing the low at the baroclinic zone which is basically what I think happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Feel like I am missing out on the Miller talk but Miller or not, assuming we are talking 187Z Euro, there something going on off the coast at hour 78....see circled area below. At hour 84 that something now has an elongated look to it like it is absorbing the first low (and the moisture). That is my non professional take on the precip hole. It may have already been said as I missed some of the posts. Miller Lite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 44 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: I was writing the below before several of you were already describing things the way I have below...so I'm just adding my two cents... Is this really a Miller B? the low starts out down in central Alabama and moves northeast to northwestern Georgia, to north central South Carolina, to just off the southern Virginia coast, and then the jump happens up to southeast of NYC. But, the jump doesn't happen until the low is practically at the coast. A "jump" is more of a low pressure well inland, coming northeast over the Appalachians heading up towards southwest PA with the jump taking place there to the coast as a new low pressure center, and then redeveloping / strengthening moving northeast from there. In our case while there appears to be a "jump", the low is already at the coast before the jump. It almost has more of a Miller A'ish look to it, but regardless, the MA appears to receive the jackpot once again. ^^^. This. Well stated bud. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 4, 2022 Author Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, paweather said: Miller Lite? No cheap beer for our snow storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Feel like I am missing out on the Miller talk but Miller or not, assuming we are talking 187Z Euro, there something going on off the coast at hour 78....see circled area below. At hour 84 that something now has an elongated look to it like it is absorbing the first low (and the moisture). That is my non professional take on the precip hole. It may have already been said as I missed some of the posts. Whatever happens jumps the precip up coast. Our best panels. from 84 to 87 I mentioned a Miller B look then many had other ideas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 46 minutes ago, Voyager said: Either way, it robs parts of CPA of qpf, and therefore good snow amounts. Just clarifying for those who may not know the difference. For those not sure…See carlisle’s eloquently stated description. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 13 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: HH Eps is a bit more progressive compared to 12z fwiw . On to 0z... To see the Wizard Here is the 18z EPS. Lots of individual member low tracks would work well for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: Just clarifying for those who may not know the difference. For those not sure…See carlisle’s eloquently stated description. I agree it’s not a Midwest low dying out and transferring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 4, 2022 Author Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Whatever happens jumps the precip up coast. Our best panels. from 84 to 87 I mentioned a Miller B look then many had other ideas I am just enjoying the model talk. Note that what the nam showed is not much different just much further apart. Low forms then weakens as something new forms way off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: I am just enjoying the model talk. Note that what the nam showed is not much different just much further apart. Low forms then weakens as something new forms way off the coast. Agreed. If nothing else, makes conversation and learning experiences 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 43 minutes ago, Voyager said: Down to 20 degrees already. I'm wondering if I make a run at low teens/single digits even without snow cover tonight? New Wood stove is getting its first real workout. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Here is the 18z EPS snow map. Very general area of amounts with no real jackpot. Everyone in our region is very much in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 38 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I know there's also Miller A/B hybrids as well Yep sure are. For any B there still has to be a “transfer”. As others stated, this one, like today is riding a boundary. Difference is the next one should have better trough axis for our region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 4, 2022 Author Share Posted January 4, 2022 4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Here is the 18z EPS snow map. Very general area of amounts with no real jackpot. Everyone in our region is very much in the game. Has that dying low petering out in West PA look again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 15 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Feel like I am missing out on the Miller talk but Miller or not, assuming we are talking 18Z Euro, there something going on off the coast at hour 78....see circled area below. At hour 84 that something now has an elongated look to it like it is absorbing the first low (and the moisture). That is my non professional take on the precip hole. It may have already been said as I missed some of the posts. I saw another post stating that it was a change in where the model focused showing the low at the baroclinic zone which is basically what I think happened. Can you look it share 700 panels at same time stamp. That’s where our storm should show best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 15 minutes ago, paweather said: Miller Lite? Nice. That’s my beer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 4, 2022 Author Share Posted January 4, 2022 Just now, pasnownut said: Can you look it share 700 panels at same time stamp. That’s where our storm should show best. Need someone who paid cash to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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