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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
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1 hour ago, CarlislePaWx said:

I can answer that question for you.  @Voyagerhas the Ambient Weather WS-2000.  I whole-heartedly endorse Ambient's products.  I've had the WS-2902 model for 3 years and it has worked flawlessly.  Ambient has revised the firmware in the 2902 4 times since introduction, so current model is WS-2902C.  Retails for $169.99, but occasionally goes on sale for 15% off.  The 2902 and the 2000 both use the exact same outdoor sensor assembly.  The only difference is the type of display they use for the 2 models.  The WS-2000 uses a pure LED display with a wide viewing angle.  The 2902 uses a TFT film display, which works great but you have to adjust your viewing angle to have it display completely and brightly.  I have mine placed right next to my La-Z-Boy on a table whose height is about the same as my head position in my chair.  The display comes with a support base that intentionally angles the display top-forward.  You just need to experiment a little.  As for Voyager's comment about battery backup, the 2902 does come with that which means that during any power outage, the display goes off but the unit continues to operate normally.  The other thing that happens with no power is the unit stops transmitting over your wifi until power is resumed.  I don't know off the top of my head what the WS-2000 costs but I'm pretty sure it's in the high 200's (not on sale).  PM me if you want any additional info.

Excellent description. I just wish mine kept recording data in a power outage. You'd think for the nearly $300 price tag, it would have battery backup.

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2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Ground truth for us is not much different but DCA is a lot different.   MA forum should go bonkers. 

Need a good second storm if the first one looks anything like that for DCA. I don’t know if I can handle being behind DCA’s season total snowfall for any appreciable amount of time. :lol:

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Boy we’re really about to find out about the GFS’s short term prowess these days with a snowstorm on the line, especially the folks in Central VA. In the meantime the NAM should sue the GFS for copyright infringement of the term “NAM’ed”.

584843030_NAMWeatherBellMaps.thumb.png.cdfccf0f5cd207a1bf946edcec739023.png

 

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Just now, MAG5035 said:

Boy we’re really about to find out about the GFS’s short term prowess these days with a snowstorm on the line, especially the folks in Central VA. In the meantime the NAM should sue the GFS for copyright infringement of the term “NAM’ed”.

584843030_NAMWeatherBellMaps.thumb.png.cdfccf0f5cd207a1bf946edcec739023.png

 

How will people rank this if the middle of the road solutions are correct?  More amped than the Nam but just 4-6 for any maxes. 

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1 minute ago, MAG5035 said:

Boy we’re really about to find out about the GFS’s short term prowess these days with a snowstorm on the line, especially the folks in Central VA. In the meantime the NAM should sue the GFS for copyright infringement of the term “NAM’ed”.

584843030_NAMWeatherBellMaps.thumb.png.cdfccf0f5cd207a1bf946edcec739023.png

 

I've been a fan and supporter of the NAM....but yeah, its a little unnerving to see such disparity in the short range home team models...

Might make for a challenging and trying couple of weeks.  

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1 minute ago, paweather said:

Looks sweet 3” would be great

I have seen a trend recently of people posting simulated radar instead of the actual precip maps?   Is that something we are doing this year?  Not being sarcastic just curious as it has happened here and other forums quite a bit.  The simulated radar shows virga I believe. 

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4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

How will people rank this if the middle of the road solutions are correct?  More amped than the Nam but just 4-6 for any maxes. 

I mean swath-wise with the axis of heaviest snowfall is certainly a hat-tip toward the GFS when considering what the Euro/Canadian has. The 12z Canadian indicated a lot of heavy sleet where the heavy deform bands presumably would be in central/eastern VA. GFS still NW with it’s axis vs those two and very heavy with snowfall and the 18z GEFS largely backs it up it appears. The Euro/Canadian take is still a pretty big snowstorm for that area but 18z GFS evolution is a big ticket snowstorm for the Mid-Atlantic region. 12 and 18z NAM today has been straight up uninterested in any of this which I’d imagine is probably wrong to at least some degree considering the rest of the guidance suite and associated ensembles and the fairly robust shortwave in question even with limited amplification opportunities.

So at any rate, obviously the middle of the road is the best way to approach this as there’s a lot of questions to resolve. If this indeed ends up a deeper wave and puts good precip into the Mid-Atlantic region, big question probably is going to be if there’s gonna be a changeover to overcome and how long it takes where biggest snow totals are being presented, which comes down to timing and how well the cold actually progresses. LSV shouldn’t have that problem by that time, but northern extent is now the big question for some in this subforum. I still say I don’t expect a lot if it does make it into the southern tier LSV, but we shall see. 

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I have seen a trend recently of people posting simulated radar instead of the actual precip maps?   Is that something we are doing this year?  Not being sarcastic just curious as it has happened here and other forums quite a bit.  The simulated radar shows virga I believe. 

I’ve often looked at them but it is important to still pay attention to QPF maps, especially in fringe situations like the LSV is going to be possibly be positioned in for this 1/3 event. 

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