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0Z model discussion

Bluescat1

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weatherweather

weatherweather

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This event resembles 2/89, 3/09 and 1/25/00...overall all 3 systems tracked more north than northeast and needed a major negative tilt at 500 because the ridge was displaced too far east out in the west or was progressing eastward at the time....1/25/00 and 3/09 got it...this one might but I doubt it.

The 3/09 event, looking at these maps to me it seems it was the southern s/w that did all the work. Maybe im just readin it wrong.

http://www.njfreeways.com/weather/2009/02-Mar-09-500MillibarMaps.html

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spf

spf

Posted
Posted

This could not have been the case--- the Winter Storm Warning came out before 10 pm. Earlier, at 5 pm, the TV Mets were pretty much unanimous in saying that something was way off with the radar compared to the modeling in South Carolina. The NWS issued the rapid-response WSW at 9:48 pm and the 11 pm newscasts led with that as the top story.

Agreed. In DC, as the 6:00 pm news was going off the air, Bob Ryan noted that he was very nervous about the radar moving the storm north rather than northeast. By 10 pm, there was a crawl across the TV screen that DC was now expecting 8-12 inches.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

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This could not have been the case--- the Winter Storm Warning came out before 10 pm. Earlier, at 5 pm, the TV Mets were pretty much unanimous in saying that something was way off with the radar compared to the modeling in South Carolina. The NWS issued the rapid-response WSW at 9:48 pm and the 11 pm newscasts led with that as the top story.

You're right. 10 years ago and my memory is foggy. I used to get up at 4:30 back then so there is no way I was awake for the late news. It must have been the 6pm forecasts vs the 9-10pm radar I was watching. Regardless, it was one heck of a surprise.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

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As one of the two guys that started that battle royal over the 1/25/00 event this is nothing like it.

The NGM was the first to give a hint something was up. It had some pretty prolific VV's offshore at 48h. No other model really offered a hint at that point that the focus had been on the wrong s/w but for about 36-48 hours in the IRC chat Brian and I were banging the drum that the focus was on the wrong system. If all of you remember the progression it went from euphoria to depression. Everyone thought it was all over and had moved on for the most part after the last night where Dave, Brian and I had the scrum. The first hints came from the NGM that the idea of the wrong parcel driving the east coast storm. I don't see this situation as similar in any way. What's lacking in this situation is the epic jet streaks evident and the s/w in the base of the trough...well take a look at the old storm http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/research/blizz2000/eta500.html

It does remind me of another storm that I can never place. Jim Cantore did a storm stories on it, it was a bowling ball that moved across the GOM and was modeled pretty weakly. It blew up coming across the Gulf and had a nasty squall line with it. It was so strong it actually brought with it a storm surge to parts of the Florida coast. OT but anyone remember the date as it does remind me a little of that event.

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

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As one of the two guys that started that battle royal over the 1/25/00 event this is nothing like it.

The NGM was the first to give a hint something was up. It had some pretty prolific VV's offshore at 48h. No other model really offered a hint at that point that the focus had been on the wrong s/w but for about 36-48 hours in the IRC chat Brian and I were banging the drum that the focus was on the wrong system. If all of you remember the progression it went from euphoria to depression. Everyone thought it was all over and had moved on for the most part after the last night where Dave, Brian and I had the scrum. The first hints came from the NGM that the idea of the wrong parcel driving the east coast storm. I don't see this situation as similar in any way. What's lacking in this situation is the epic jet streaks evident.

It does remind me of another storm that I can never place. Jim Cantore did a storm stories on it, it was a bowling ball that moved across the GOM and was modeled pretty weakly. It blew up coming across the Gulf and had a nasty squall line with it. It was so strong it actually brought with it a storm surge to parts of the Florida coast. OT but anyone remember the date as it does remind me a little of that event.

Wow....

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NattyBo

NattyBo

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Posted

Per tombo, re: 0z Euro:

hr 18 the h5 low opened up over western tex... while 12z the h5 low was closed still. s/w is digging a little better compared to 12z also the hgts on the eeast coast are a little higher

hr 24 has a little closed h5 low over central tex..while 12z had a bigger h5 closed low over dallas region...s/w looks alittle more amplified compared to 12z, hgs continue hgr on east coast

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

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National radar loop is interesting to look at. Sw's in ND and NM are clearly visible. Too bad the timing is going to be off. I'd be happy with a dusting at this point. Just enough snow to keep the holiday season spirit going. Either way, the xmas weather is a heck of a lot better than a foggy/rainy slopfest while watching two feet of week old snow going down the stormdrain.

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