0Z model discussion

[PhineasC]

Surface low at 72h about 50m west of 18Z GFS ensemble mean.

We just need another 75 miles to get some decent snow.

[Atlas]

66 hours out...2.5 days...one more small shift west and we are in the snow. this is where i thought the GFS would be tonight actuallly with the EURO still showing the HECS:(

Hey Ji remember the Euros mysterious hiccup run at 72 hours for the last storm? Maybe today was the Euros hiccup run for this storm...lol.

[Ian]

The question, is this a trend or just a hiccup?

the problem is now we're in the deadly range for the euro so even though it fooled us it's probably the leader of the pack with its current solution. if the southern s/w is really that slow the gfs could be on to something. i would think in this timeframe the 0z euro or other globals would pick up the same thing. we can't seesaw thru 12 hrs out can we?

[joey]

We just need another 75 miles to get some decent snow.

the low is 50 miles from giving NYC deform bands. It's pretty close for you guys down south as well.

[swva]

Boston gets crushed on this run!

[Sparky]

Looks like Dec 31, 2000?

not really. That was a miller B that only got from southern Jersey north plus it rained in Boston.

[Dr No]

Looks like Dec 31, 2000?

lolz... I didn't know that storm originated in the GOM.

[Bluescat1]

Looks like light snow for me.

[PhineasC]

if the GGEM shows a hit, I'm back in

otherwise I'll stick to the seasonal climo established this year <MA pays the price this year for for 09/10>

If the GFS is on to something, the UKMET and GGEM should also have west moves.

[Ji]

there is no way this should lead to OTS solution

[Fozz]

I'm happy to see this trend back west, the GFS is a significant snowstorm even for NYC now.

[mitchnick]

If the GFS is on to something, the UKMET and GGEM should also have west moves.

hence my statement

but I ain't holding my breath

[wkd]

If the strength, location and timing of that northern vorticity is so critical we may have to wait until 24 hpours or less before the event to be pretty sure of the storm track.

[WhiteoutWX]

there is no way this should lead to OTS solution

Also closed at 850 mb by hr 60:

[mitchnick]

there is no way this should lead to OTS solution

yes

the trough is too broad (round)

we need it egg shaped standing on the pointed end, preferably tilted NNW/SSE

[Dr No]

If the GFS is on to something, the UKMET and GGEM should also have west moves.

UKIE is way west of its previous runs, but flat and a little further east of the GFS.

[mitchnick]

UKIE is way west of its previous runs, but flat and a little further east of the GFS.

please no God, please not again

[SnowGoose69]

I have no faith in the GFS...remember the last storm the NAM was correct with its further west solution and the GFS was wrong being further east....at this point I have to assume they are both doing the same this time, just in the opposite directions

[Atlas]

FOLKS RGEM!

Hey guys, the 00z RGEM @ 48 hours looks VERY good for a possible phase. Note the backside energy really digging southward.

Compare that to the 12z GGEM @ 60 hours which looks nothing similar!!!

http://www.weatherof...SIC@012_060.jpg

Wow huge trends.

[atownwxwatcher]

UKIE is way west of its previous runs, but flat and a little further east of the GFS.

Keep in mind according to HPC ..one of the biases of the UK is to suppressed beyond 72

[SnowGoose69]

The RGEM differed from the NAM for the first time in about 8 runs, lets see what the GEM does though....we may just be seeing a consensus towards a near miss and based on the trough position that seems legit.

[WinterWxLuvr]

What I don't understand, well, one of many, is how the 500 and 700 maps can improve so much, and yet see no improvement in the surface track. Maybe I'm seeing improvement that really isn't that great.

[Atlas]

What I don't understand, well, one of many, is how the 500 and 700 maps can improve so much, and yet see no improvement in the surface track. Maybe I'm seeing improvement that really isn't that great.

Look at 300mb, just a tad earlier phase and negative tilt and big cities COULD be in business

[ohleary]

Between the 00Z GFS and NAM, from a quick look at 500h, it's not an initialization problem, they look similar through 30 hours, but after that, they handle the northern stream energy differently. NAM sort of dissolves an important piece of it coming down the back side of the trough, the GFS pushes it all through to dig and cut the thing off.

[SnowGoose69]

Keep in mind according to HPC ..one of the biases of the UK is to suppressed beyond 72

The UK has been overly suppressed all year, I've posted this alot...as the Nina may be negating the GEM's west/warm bias which is causing it to perform very well the Nina is playing into the UKMET's bias and thus probably why its been too suppressed on most recent storms.

[Amped]

Have found tonights spoiler. That little piece on negative vorticity between shortwaves allos the closed 500mb low to keep a positive tilt and prevents it from pulling snow inland.

[donsutherland1]

FWIW, the forecast qpf on the last three runs of the GFS:

[SnowGoose69]

More bones for the weenies...00Z NOGAPS crosses 40N/74W with the low track.

[midatlanticweather]

FWIW, the forecast qpf on the last three runs of the GFS:

This is interesting. Think original DT thoughts may come true for East of I-95 snow. A few more shifts and it will be historic again! Eastern NC could do well.

Now I have much more to watch!

[njblizzard]

FWIW, the forecast qpf on the last three runs of the GFS:

Thanks, i guess by tomm morning it will shift another 50 miles west. lol