0Z model discussion

[mitchnick]

[stormtracker]

54 looks amazing at h5 much better than 18z

[goldstar]

GFS just lost its mind, how can it go from no storm to maybe storm to no storm to storm in 48 hours? That 54hr panel is as good as it gets considering where we were! I can't wait to see the Euro!

[Ian]

Compare 42 hours with 54 at 12z...lol. Its still gonna miss, but its amazing how many things are changing and moving around this much

the stream has had lots of vorts all season... think that's big part of the model problem is they don't necessarily visualize them correctly/same run to run. as long as the southern vort is slow it gets a few opps for phase.

[stormtracker]

the stream has had lots of vorts all season... think that's big part of the model problem is they don't necessarily visualize them correctly/same run to run. as long as the southern vort is slow it gets a few opps for phase.

Dude, look at the 54 hour panel!!

[ArtRosen]

I can't look. It's going to get me hooked again and then going to leave me in 12 hours from now.

[forkyfork]

i am doing an impromptu play by play in the chatroom... go there

[dg12x]

78hr has a 978mb low a bit to the south of Cape Cod. Precip shield extends back to the Jersey shore.

[Ian]

Dude, look at the 54 hour panel!!

it's going to be tough watching the heavy just offshore on radar when this happens.

[PhineasC]

Definitely closer than 18Z, I would say. Man, what a tease.

[Riptide]

How much bust potential exists with this type of situation? *** damn.

[Ian]

pretty but in the Mid-atl the .1 line didn't budge at all from 18z. is interesting it wants to keep that southern wave slow tho.

[dg12x]

Heavy snow in eastern Mass at 84hr....lighter snows back to NYC.

[stormtracker]

it's going to be tough watching the heavy just offshore on radar when this happens.

Sure, but it is a change at h5. It will miss us for sure, but this run to run fluctuations are agonizing. Enjoy your CT snow

[mitchnick]

How much bust potential exists with this type of situation? *** damn.

can't be any greater than the 1.5"+ qpf on the 12Z Euro yesterday and the .01" today

[stormtracker]

Definitely closer than 18Z, I would say. Man, what a tease.

Enough to make a grown man cry

[Dr No]

The movement of the storm is interesting as it gets caught by the upper energy... almost due south to north.

MA is very close to being back in it- just a very minor shift needed.

[Ian]

surface track is still very similar to 18z.. pressure slightly weaker thru 72

[PhineasC]

Another adjustment like this and PHL would be back in the game, I think.

[mitchnick]

[ohleary]

Surface low at 72h about 50m west of 18Z GFS ensemble mean.

[stormtracker]

Game back on for Eastern Carolinas, NYC, BOS

[wesleyhtswx]

This run at least gets a hook slide into SE NE. Too bad that N. Atlantic Low is exiting stage right.

[Ian]

sene maybe all sne gotta be loving the last several runs of globals

[Bluescat1]

surface track is still very similar to 18z.. pressure slightly weaker thru 72

The question, is this a trend or just a hiccup?

[mitchnick]

if the GGEM shows a hit, I'm back in

otherwise I'll stick to the seasonal climo established this year <MA pays the price this year for for 09/10>

[Ji]

Enough to make a grown man cry

66 hours out...2.5 days...one more small shift west and we are in the snow. this is where i thought the GFS would be tonight actuallly with the EURO still showing the HECS:(

[ohleary]

Boston/Cape Cod hammered at 84h

[mitchnick]

66 hours out...2.5 days...one more small shift west and we are in the snow. this is where i thought the GFS would be tonight actuallly with the EURO still showing the HECS:(

at least you were half right

[mdhokie]

Looks like Dec 31, 2000?