LakeEffectKing Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Click on this link: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewallsref.html and you goto the 21z SREF for the US H500 progs....then go to the link I just posted before and see what 500 evolutions are needed....there's a couple different scenarios that would work.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 link? RSM 2 FTW, type sref psu into google Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The GFS is slowing the TX s/w down even more than the 18z. Mid MS Valley energy - well look for yourselves at 18 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 It was the December 19th storm last year. Randy pulled it out and said he was sticking with it and it verified- probably the one in 100 LOL nah, it was the Jan. 30 storm that every "respectable" model was saying measurable qpf would stay to our south the CRAS was advertising around .5"+/- depending upon the run ultimately, we received around .25-.3" but great ratios lead to a general 6" snowfall around BWI/DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 when you compare its solution to 18z its much farther south and east. Reminds me of a few euro runs which then brought the system straight north. 18z 00z there is so much more to this than just looking at where the L is, especially when the main storm hasn't developed yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The GFS is slowing the TX s/w down even more than the 18z. Mid MS Valley energy - well look for yourselves at 18 hrs. More like, The west coast ridge is also more amped. I think this run is going to be awesome for New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twodogs Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 12hr slightly slower with southern s/w, just slightly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 RGEM - i hate these maps so someone else can figure out what it is doing but it looks ugly to me. ugly as sin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The GFS is slowing the TX s/w down even more than the 18z. Mid MS Valley energy - well look for yourselves at 18 hrs. maybe if it would just go away the N stream could come further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 darn shame about that southern vort it does look pretty on sat/pic http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaaport_loop.php?PATH=/var/www/leads_images/satellite/SPN/WV/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 ugly as sin. better than 18z by a long shot. the trof as a whole is sharper. however, heights are still to low in the east to get a storm close enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 looks like it should be relatively similar to 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Vortmax over Kansas is nice, thats the key player. Gives hope for New england Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Out to sea. lolz the primary LP would still be in the north central GOM at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 We have to be slightly careful, maybe a bit skeptical, I think still. The NAM and GFS are worlds apart and hence, there must be something being missed by one of the two NWP. This tends to make me think that we truly don't have a goo handle on this system yet. It would be one thing if both the NAM and GFS placed the low 300+ miles off the coast, but that's not been the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 looks like it should be relatively similar to 18z i'm not so sure... look at the position and strength of the s/w over the central plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 It was the December 19th storm last year. Randy pulled it out and said he was sticking with it and it verified- probably the one in 100 LOL As I recalled, the final CRAS precip type and snowfall amounts verified for the MidAtlantic, but the overall model depiction was not really near the actual synoptic solution. Right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Second vort max pops over s. NE....might be the piece that can "get to" s. s/w.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Second vort max pops over s. NE....might be the piece that can "get to" s. s/w.... i'm hoping that vort max slows the whole thing down and allows heights over the east to relax a little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 i'm not so sure... look at the position and strength of the s/w over the central plains yeah perhaps. usually it seems like getting overly analytical on one frame doesnt help much. more often than not it corrects later. at 42 the southern vort is still in basically the same place which i would have expected to speed up again but prob still a near miss till new eng? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 This is going to be a close call... vort digging hard over AR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 So um...anybody else seeing what I'm seeing on the GFS at 42? Where did that new s/w come from diving down? Could it catch up to... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Absolutely amazing how much the models continue to change inside of 36 hours. Notice heights poking further east north of the dakotas at the same time slots? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Should be a little west of 18z.. digging more and by hr 54 heights are higher along the MA coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 So um...anybody else seeing what I'm seeing on the GFS at 42? Where did that new s/w come from diving down? Could it catch up to... According to some....it's coming from the CRAS................ This actually was part of the "second" vort channel that sped into the Euro a few days ago that produced that little 962'er.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Compare 42 hours with 54 at 12z...lol. Its still gonna miss, but its amazing how many things are changing and moving around this much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 i'm hoping that vort max slows the whole thing down and allows heights over the east to relax a little faints Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 So um...anybody else seeing what I'm seeing on the GFS at 42? Where did that new s/w come from diving down? Could it catch up to... I' just mentioned it and I was tooting off about that S/w all last night.. It looks almost awesome enough to save the day on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Ummm....THIS is a TRUE improvement folks!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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