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0Z model discussion


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It was the December 19th storm last year. Randy pulled it out and said he was sticking with it and it verified- probably the one in 100 LOL

nah, it was the Jan. 30 storm that every "respectable" model was saying measurable qpf would stay to our south

the CRAS was advertising around .5"+/- depending upon the run

ultimately, we received around .25-.3" but great ratios lead to a general 6" snowfall around BWI/DCA

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when you compare its solution to 18z its much farther south and east. Reminds me of a few euro runs which then brought the system straight north.

18z

3295_100.gif

00z

520_100.gif

there is so much more to this than just looking at where the L is, especially when the main storm hasn't developed yet

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We have to be slightly careful, maybe a bit skeptical, I think still. The NAM and GFS are worlds apart and hence, there must be something being missed by one of the two NWP. This tends to make me think that we truly don't have a goo handle on this system yet. It would be one thing if both the NAM and GFS placed the low 300+ miles off the coast, but that's not been the case.

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It was the December 19th storm last year. Randy pulled it out and said he was sticking with it and it verified- probably the one in 100 LOL

As I recalled, the final CRAS precip type and snowfall amounts verified for the MidAtlantic, but the overall model depiction was not really near the actual synoptic solution. Right?

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i'm not so sure... look at the position and strength of the s/w over the central plains

yeah perhaps. usually it seems like getting overly analytical on one frame doesnt help much. more often than not it corrects later. at 42 the southern vort is still in basically the same place which i would have expected to speed up again but prob still a near miss till new eng?

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So um...anybody else seeing what I'm seeing on the GFS at 42? Where did that new s/w come from diving down? Could it catch up to...

According to some....it's coming from the CRAS................ :arrowhead:

This actually was part of the "second" vort channel that sped into the Euro a few days ago that produced that little 962'er....

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So um...anybody else seeing what I'm seeing on the GFS at 42? Where did that new s/w come from diving down? Could it catch up to...

I' just mentioned it and I was tooting off about that S/w all last night..

It looks almost awesome enough to save the day on this run.

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