Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Yikes, misses SNE by a wide margin. True but it would be a decent - light to moderate event through OES etc. No sense talking about it, the NAM verifying at 72+ has very little chance of happening verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pythium Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/images/cras45na_pcp_084m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 http://cimss.ssec.wi...na_pcp_084m.gif how reliable is that model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 how reliable is that model? Not at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldstar Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 http://cimss.ssec.wi...na_pcp_084m.gif that looks like a nice hit for many! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I had forgotten about the CRAS. What was that one storm a few years back that it nailed? AFAIK, it has a severe northwest bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Not at all. lol figures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pythium Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 it nailes 2 of the 3 big ones last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 And that is an old run on top of it. At least post the most recent run. Not at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 it nailes 2 of the 3 big ones last year Every model nailed the storms last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I had forgotten about the CRAS. What was that one storm a few years back that it nailed? AFAIK, it has a severe northwest bias. I've seen some storms it took way out to sea when in reality they were closer to the coast. The only bias the CRAS has is being wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 anyone got the gfs 00z running yet ncep still hasnt started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxClimate Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 It's time we realized that the northern stream, once sampled well by the 00z runs last night, is not going to be fast enough, energetic enough, nor oriented in the proper direction to make an east coast bomb that gives out abundant snow on land. No amount of s/w slowing and/or placement can change that. This event is over as the models have all the players on the field so to speak. The fact that we're nibbling around the edges of this thing speaks volumes. Well said ... A LOT would have to change in order for us to get east coast storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 call it stupidity, but i just got a funny feeling were gonna see a nice nw push with 00z of GFS. maybe just the weenie in me but i think we will be pleasantly surprised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pythium Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 no that is the cras45na of 12z oz is not out yet....and yes last year it sored a big hit.. too bad you all have forgotten Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 call it stupidity, but i just got a funny feeling were gonna see a nice nw push with 00z of GFS. maybe just the weenie in me but i think we will be pleasantly surprised of course a nw push by gfs means nothing lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 RGEM - i hate these maps so someone else can figure out what it is doing but it looks ugly to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 When does it come out again? Keep our hopes alive in cast the GFS dashes them again. no that is the cras45na of 12z oz is not out yet....and yes last year it sored a big hit.. too bad you all have forgotten Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 RGEM - i hate these maps so someone else can figure out what it is doing but it looks ugly to me. 1013 low on eastern side of fla, going bye bye lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 RGEM - i hate these maps so someone else can figure out what it is doing but it looks ugly to me. Out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 If you guys want to see what types of solutions the MA/SNE areas need to get this back, go see the individual SREF members at the PSU site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pythium Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 about an hour or so...just saying it has scored... this thing is not set in stone yet.. it will change for us in MA we need something big but it can happen.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 of course a nw push by gfs means nothing lol are you responding to yourself? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Do you have a link for this? If you guys want to see what types of solutions the MA/SNE areas need to get this back, go see the individual SREF members at the PSU site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 are you responding to yourself? no lol i just forgot to add it to a previous post is all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 If you guys want to see what types of solutions the MA/SNE areas need to get this back, go see the individual SREF members at the PSU site. link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 1013 low on eastern side of fla, going bye bye lol when you compare its solution to 18z its much farther south and east. Reminds me of a few euro runs which then brought the system straight north. 18z 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SREF21PRSUS_21z/srefloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwonder Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I had forgotten about the CRAS. What was that one storm a few years back that it nailed? AFAIK, it has a severe northwest bias. It was the December 19th storm last year. Randy pulled it out and said he was sticking with it and it verified- probably the one in 100 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twodogs Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 GFS 6 hr looks the same as 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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