0Z model discussion

[PhineasC]

Ends up OTS, as usual. Even though the pieces look better, the overall setup is no longer any good. These small adjustments do nothing more than buy parts of SNE another inch or so of snow, at best.

[mitchnick]

loop the radar

its heading ene

no one of the east coast gets anything substantial imho

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/index_ref_l_loop.shtml

[chris87]

slightly better....but the clock is about out for the MA

[PhineasC]

This is way OTS, actually.

[stormtracker]

Than NAM is getting so agonizingly closer and closer each run. Compare 18 and 12 and this run. Ugh

[SBUWX23]

This is way OTS, actually.

The NAM has not had anything close to a hit yet.

[SeVa]

Initially the NAM was looking decent, but the **** hit the fan at around hr48. We always say next set of runs is key, and it looks like Euro and GFS will seal the deal. Hopefully they won't throw a bone at us and sucker us back in. I just want some closure at this point.

[Riptide]

This is way OTS, actually.

NAM still playing catchup with the GFS.

[Sunny and Warm]

It's time we realized that the northern stream, once sampled well by the 00z runs last night, is not going to be fast enough, energetic enough, nor oriented in the proper direction to make an east coast bomb that gives out abundant snow on land. No amount of s/w slowing and/or placement can change that. This event is over as the models have all the players on the field so to speak. The fact that we're nibbling around the edges of this thing speaks volumes.

[rainstorm]

looking at that radar it wouldnt much to get some snow in here.

[psuhoffman]

You know thinking back on the euro runs that had the monster solution...and thinking about the timing of those runs...its the energy back over Minnesota at hour 54 still diving due south into the trough that phased in and produced the monster storm. The vort in front of it was much weaker and got out of the way without pulling everything east. Instead, that first vort has trended stronger and its basically stealing the energy that was supposed to wait for that more impressive vort diving into the trough to bomb out. I think our stj vort is hitching itself to the wrong ride basically. We need it to hang around 12 more hours and then bomb when that energy dives in. Instead its running out ahead and....game over.

[mitchnick]

slightly better....but the clock is about out for the MA

oh we're out of it, but NE looks no better based on the 60 hr map and looped images

[goldstar]

closer is better, and looking at the players, there will plenty of moisture, here's to rolling the hard 6!

[PhineasC]

Than NAM is getting so agonizingly closer and closer each run. Compare 18 and 12 and this run. Ugh

Is it all that close in the end? We can sit here and say the upper levels look better, but the storm still heads way OTS.

[PhineasC]

You know thinking back on the euro runs that had the monster solution...and thinking about the timing of those runs...its the energy back over Minnesota at hour 54 still diving due south into the trough that phased in and produced the monster storm. The vort in front of it was much weaker and got out of the way without pulling everything east. Instead, that first vort has trended stronger and its basically stealing the energy that was supposed to wait for that more impressive vort diving into the trough to bomb out. I think our stj vort is hitching itself to the wrong ride basically. We need it to hang around 12 more hours and then bomb when that energy dives in. Instead its running out ahead and....game over.

Yes, we need the southern s/w to slow down. We all realized that and that is why the Euro showed us a big storm, because it has a bias of holding back shortwaves in the Southwest. All of these other notions of doing this or that to bring the storm back are just trying to compensate for the increased speed, which all the models picked up on last night.

[VAsnowlvr82]

How can the upper levels continue to look better and not have much of an impact on the outcome?

Is it all that close in the end? We can sit here and say the upper levels look better, but the storm still heads way OTS.

[psuhoffman]

Is it all that close in the end? We can sit here and say the upper levels look better, but the storm still heads way OTS.

I really think the problem is that first northern branch vort. That was not the energy that created our "superstorm" on the euro. It was the energy diving in behind it. If that was not there, and the southern stream energy was still kinda chillin in the northeast gulf as that second more impressive vort dives in the back side we would get the euro solution probably. The problem is the first northern stream vort sparks some development, not enough to help but enough to steal the energy we needed for the second. The southern stream hands off to that first wave and it slides OTS. Then the second dives in but there is nothing left for it to phase with. Just a mess.

[Sparky]

oh we're out of it, but NE looks no better based on the 60 hr map and looped images

when Miller A's swing too wide right for the MA they are usually too wide for NE too except maybe the Cape/Nantucket

[winterymix]

The entrance region for the 300 mb jet streak is slipping south and away from the

Mid-Atlantic during the time interval that the storm tries to spin up.

My hunch is this is extremely unfavorable.

[MDScot]

This is still some ways off - if the 66 hr showed the storm right where you want it to be ( where ever that is) would you stop watching the models and start shoveling in 3 days. I don't think so. T

[chris87]

it's the lead vort....it crashes heights across New England and eastern Canada and although we have better upper levels...we can't get enough ridging ahead of the second wave

[PhineasC]

How can the upper levels continue to look better and not have much of an impact on the outcome?

Because the setup sucks.

[PhineasC]

The entrance region for the 300 mb jet streak is slipping south and away from the

Mid-Atlantic during the time interval that the storm tries to spin up.

My hunch is this is extremely unfavorable.

Wow, what gave you that impression? Was it the fact that the storm misses by hundreds of miles OTS?

[PhineasC]

Yikes, misses SNE by a wide margin.

[psuhoffman]

it's the lead vort....it crashes heights across New England and eastern Canada and although we have better upper levels...we can't get enough ridging ahead of the second wave

Thank you, been pointing that out for 3 runs now.

[friedmators]

What is the NAM's best range verification wise?

[Confuzzled]

What is the NAM's best range verification wise?

0-48hrs.

[winterymix]

Wow, what gave you that impression? Was it the fact that the storm misses by hundreds of miles OTS?

In two days, we went from storm to dying to dead to perhaps virga and a flurry.

Well there is some small comfort in seeing all the ingredients available

and no process to reach gestalt.

Disappointment yet insight trumps disappointment and ignorance.

[psuhoffman]

[Clinch Leatherwood]

You know thinking back on the euro runs that had the monster solution...and thinking about the timing of those runs...its the energy back over Minnesota at hour 54 still diving due south into the trough that phased in and produced the monster storm. The vort in front of it was much weaker and got out of the way without pulling everything east. Instead, that first vort has trended stronger and its basically stealing the energy that was supposed to wait for that more impressive vort diving into the trough to bomb out. I think our stj vort is hitching itself to the wrong ride basically. We need it to hang around 12 more hours and then bomb when that energy dives in. Instead its running out ahead and....game over.

I'd pretty much agree. We're seeing the same tired pattern repeat of the first important impulse shooting out early taking the moisture and the developing surface low with it. Try as we might up here we did not see that change just 4 days ago and it played out very much like you describe. The lead impulse had everything so far east it was too late for most.

At face value the NAM is very odd to me. I'd say toss it. I doubt we will see twin s/w's rotating down through at 60-70 hours. I doubt we will see a fairly impressive s/w crash into the ridge out west as is modeled. But will these things really make a ton of difference for most? Probably not.