0Z model discussion

[Bluescat1]

http://www.nco.ncep....0/fp0_006.shtml

[chademer07]

I know we need a miracle, but what the hell, why not...................

Ridge looks alot more amplified out west and SW is a little slower.

[PhineasC]

Latest SREFs are more NW, FWIW.

[psuhoffman]

3 things to look for that must improve if we want a better solution tonight.

1. The southern vort has to be stronger and start to deepen faster.

2. The northern stream has to dig south further instead of more SE'ward

3. The trough has to be more consolidated. Instead of having several vorts in the northern stream rotating around the trough, we need one to be dominant and take over and have everything collapse into it and phase. This would tighten up the trough and perhaps pull things west.

I doubt we get all 3, but that is what we need.

[twodogs]

close 500 east side of panhandle at 21

[twodogs]

still closed east of Fort Worth at 24

[Dr No]

3 things to look for that must improve if we want a better solution tonight.

1. The southern vort has to be stronger and start to deepen faster.

2. The northern stream has to dig south further instead of more SE'ward

3. The trough has to be more consolidated. Instead of having several vorts in the northern stream rotating around the trough, we need one to be dominant and take over and have everything collapse into it and phase. This would tighten up the trough and perhaps pull things west.

I doubt we get all 3, but that is what we need.

4. A nice line of convection along the Gulf Coast, considering the cooler, relatively drier air mass not far to the north.

[mitchnick]

ridge heights look a smidge better in the MW at 24 hrs and N stream is digging a little further south fwiw

EDIT: vs. 18z at 30 hrs

[chris87]

ridge to the west is def. a bit stronger.....looking esp. at 3H

[stormtracker]

Ridging out west definitely better than 18z...northern sw has dug a bit more..not sure about the s.w short wave

[tmagan]

Latest SREFs are more NW, FWIW.

That may be the rogue members.

[NaoPos]

ridge to the west is def. a bit stronger.....looking esp. at 3H

prob like a 75-100 miles difference at the "crest" of the ridge

should help the norhern stream dig on a better NNW to SSE axis than the 18z run

[stormtracker]

36 hours..you can tell the ridging is better vs 18z at 42 hours.....northern energy looks sharper...heights look a bit higher on the coast

[varicweather]

4. A nice line of convection along the Gulf Coast, considering the cooler, relatively drier air mass not far to the north.

That moisture plume entering Texas has as its source region the Eastern Pacific

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_central+/24h/

[crainjd]

I certainly do not see phasing at 36

[Riptide]

I certainly do not see phasing at 36

It was never really there on the NAM, looks closer to phasing than 18z.

[chademer07]

Many of the variables look better.....but I have a question.......

I would think an earlier phase is better b/c it would be closer to the coast, but I've also heard the opposite. What exactly are we rooting for here?

[twodogs]

s/w looks slower at 39 compared to 18z about 75 miles

[SEVAsNOwSTORM]

Looks slightly slower.

[PhineasC]

Noticeably higher heights on the east coast. The trough looks sharper. Closer, more agonizing miss? No way this will be a hit.

[iammrben]

Presumably there's no chance the piece of energy coming down the backside of the trough in the Dakotas could make it down to the Gulf Coast in time? Heights look higher in the west, lending a slightly sharper look.

[mitchnick]

N stream is digging a bit further at 42 and trough is a bit further west with a better angle, but it (the trough) is a bit too broad still

[mitchnick]

700mb RH looks like a glorified cold front

[stormtracker]

Noticeably higher heights on the east coast. The trough looks sharper. Closer, more agonizing miss? No way this will be a hit.

Yeah, its not going to be a hit, but every run of the NAM keeps improving as we get closer. Can't be a bad thing I guess...but all it does is string us along a bit. Like Mitch said, the trough is just too broad. That thing would have to sharpen up in a hurry

[WxUSAF]

700mb RH looks like aspires to be a glorified cold front

Fixed.

Big bag of fail it looks like here.

[PhineasC]

Yeah, its not going to be a hit, but every run of the NAM keeps improving as we get closer. Can't be a bad thing I guess...but all it does is string us along a bit. Like Mitch said, the trough is just too broad. That thing would have to sharpen up in a hurry

It is sharper at 42 and some serious energy is diving down. As usual, it will phase 6-12 hours too late for south of eastern SNE.

[kurtstack]

Looks like the 500 mb level just missed phasing early on in this run. I think we need a phase for a monster storm. As you can see without a phase everything gets sheared out.

[mitchnick]

It is sharper at 42 and some serious energy is diving down. As usual, it will phase 6-12 hours too late for south of eastern SNE.

I'm not so certain they are safe

the pattern this year has screwed them just as much as it has us

NAM has shown some decent qpf for them w/in 60 hours only to leave them relatively high and dry

[WxUSAF]

Congrats South Carolina and Georgia? Looks like they might be the only locales to see snow out of this.

[NaoPos]

Looks like the 500 mb level just missed phasing early on in this run. I think we need a phase for a monster storm. As you can see without a phase everything gets sheared out.

You think??? lol, where have you been? Without the phase, no storm... without and early phase, no east coast storm..