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Widespread Snow Potential January 16th to January 18th


sferic
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13 minutes ago, CoolMikeWx said:

Poor nothing for those Mid-Atlantic folks, they just got a nice storm a week ago and we all missed out.:lol:

Sorry, I should have put an ellipsis after that... If you can't tell, I'm pretty sarcastic. lol

Earlier this year, I wished "10 dustings on them" for their winter total. Mother nature punished me and gave me all the dustings for a month. :P

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1 minute ago, rochesterdave said:

That UKIE is perfect! Tick it just a touch east to get more of the forum in.  I still think 81 corridor is the sweet spot. 100 miles either side. This one is going to have a bigger QPF field. Just don’t want dry slotting. 
But the best part is that GEFS caved!

This one is gonna be juicy with it being a Miller A - draws up all sorts of moisture from the Gulf...

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Little bit outdated..

 

Model guidance for the 12/18Z cycle (and the incoming 00Z cycle) shows a similar idea to the previous couple of cycles of model guidance with the impactful surface low in the East--that is, a low track as described above staying onshore in the deterministic guidance, but with the GEFS and EC ensemble means showing a track offshore, while individual ensemble members demonstrate considerable spread in low placement, with certainly some ensemble members along the coast or inland. Again, while model guidance exhibits good agreement for a strengthening low, the exact low track will create significant differences in weather type at certain locations, especially near the Atlantic coast to about the I-95 corridor. The 12/18/00Z GFS along with the 12/00Z CMC all show a track basically on the western side of the guidance envelope (well inland over the northern Mid-Atlantic Monday morning), with the 12Z ECMWF a bit farther east but still onshore. Felt it prudent to continue with a low track in between the western deterministic guidance and the eastern EC and GEFS ensemble mean guidance, but somewhat favoring the fairly well clustered deterministic models. The best proxy for this at the time of forecast creation was close to the 12Z ECMWF and the 12Z CMC ensemble mean; the 12Z CMC ensemble mean along with the incoming 00Z CMC mean are the first ensemble means to show an onshore track with the low. This led to a surface low basically over Philadelphia on Monday morning, which was a very minor shift farther inland/west compared to continuity. Hopefully models will converge and confidence will increase within the next day for the exact low track, as the shortwave energy leading to this system will enter the Pacific Northwest/southwestern Canada and have better data sampling for input into the model guidance.

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9 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

That UKIE is perfect! Tick it just a touch east to get more of the forum in.  I still think 81 corridor is the sweet spot. 100 miles either side. This one is going to have a bigger QPF field. Just don’t want dry slotting. 
But the best part is that GEFS caved!

Eh, I don't know. The Euro, GFS, Canadian, and now Ukie all have Wester NY as the jackpot.

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4 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Eh, I don't know. The Euro, GFS, Canadian, and now Ukie all have Wester NY as the jackpot.

Just where we want it 3 days out.

I think your area, from Syracuse east to 81 and down to BGM is the jackpot.

I may have a dry slot issue here in Otsego but not the snow hole currently depicted.

 

 

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17 minutes ago, vortmax said:

With a last minute SE correction, I think ROC-SYR are jackpots (w/lollies), but everyone here easily gets 6"+ on either side. Ratios should be 15:1 ish.

Barring future corrections, I doubt I see 6" this far east, but anything over 2" will be my heaviest "storm" this season. So this should be a net gain, even here. I do agree with your max area though, especially towards SYR.

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2 minutes ago, Stash said:

Barring future corrections, I doubt I see 6" this far east, but anything over 2" will be my heaviest "storm" this season. So this should be a net gain, even here. I do agree with your max area though, especially towards SYR.

ENY is a little far east to guarantee 6" with the , but you never know.

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Just catching up and thought this was cool from KBUF, have to go look up those storms now

Storms of this nature have a history of
generating widespread snow throughout all of western and north
central New York. Similar sfc patterns occurred with the following
storms: 2/13/93, 12/29/97, 1/12/96, 2/23/98, 12/11/92 and 2/12/85.
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