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Widespread Snow Potential January 16th to January 18th


sferic
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4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Whoever is in that deform band to NW of the storm will be happy. Just clobbers WNY, still believe that band ends up across Central NY. It drops 1-1.75" of QPF for all of Upstate. 

snku_acc.us_ne.png

Dude look at that remarkable cutoff on the western edge. 24” in BUF , 5” in Hamilton Ontario. A distance of 50 miles… this thing moves East and we’re in big trouble in far WNY.

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1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Models have been pretty consistent in showing banding across the NW flanks of the storm. Whoever ends up in that band of death @Syrmax is going to experience some incredible synoptic snowfall rates. 

prateptype_cat.us_ne.png

 

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Models have been pretty consistent in showing banding across the NW flanks of the storm. Whoever ends up in that band of death @Syrmax is going to experience some incredible synoptic snowfall rates. 

prateptype_cat.us_ne.png

You're skating on thin ice pal.  :)

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Just now, lakeeffectkid383 said:

Dude look at that remarkable cutoff on the western edge. 24” in BUF , 5” in Hamilton Ontario. A distance of 50 miles… this thing moves East and we’re in big trouble in far WNY.

Its going to be similar to lake effect snow bands. I still think that band sets up across CNY. GEFS are too far SE for it to come this far to the NW. We've been seeing subtle shifts the last few runs. It all depends on what side of the apps it tracks. If it goes East I expect it to go further SE then modeled, if it goes west than I expect it to go further NW than modeled. 

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3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Its going to be similar to lake effect snow bands. I still think that band sets up across CNY. GEFS are too far SE for it to come this far to the NW. We've been seeing subtle shifts the last few runs. It all depends on what side of the apps it tracks. If it goes East I expect it to go further SE then modeled, if it goes west than I expect it to go further NW than modeled. 

As Delta said (along with the BUF disco), the HP placement is good for a rare Apps runner and the Apps aren't too large to mess with the LP, especially a Miller A.

Gravity waves with this one? ;)

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4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Its going to be similar to lake effect snow bands. I still think that band sets up across CNY. GEFS are too far SE for it to come this far to the NW. We've been seeing subtle shifts the last few runs. It all depends on what side of the apps it tracks. If it goes East I expect it to go further SE then modeled, if it goes west than I expect it to go further NW than modeled. 

GEFS have been a bit of a train wreck to this point.  Too many members way out to sea, skewing the mean. Interesting to see if that tightens up.  CMC ensembles looked tighter last night.

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3 minutes ago, vortmax said:

As Delta said (along with the BUF disco), the HP placement is good for a rare Apps runner and the Apps aren't too large to mess with the LP, especially a Miller A.

The HP is retreating though...not a classic look for a hook low or something forced inland.  At this point anyway...

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2 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

The HP is retreating though...not a classic look for a hook low or something forced inland.  At this point anyway...

NAO should be slightly negative at this point so hopefully the HP doesn't move too quickly. I just hope we see a stronger phasing to keep this tucked more.

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9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Its going to be similar to lake effect snow bands. I still think that band sets up across CNY. GEFS are too far SE for it to come this far to the NW. We've been seeing subtle shifts the last few runs. It all depends on what side of the apps it tracks. If it goes East I expect it to go further SE then modeled, if it goes west than I expect it to go further NW than modeled. 

So screwed either way? Helpful

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10 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

IF trends continue I’m guessing with the magnitude of this system watches hoisted tomorrow afternoon?

Thinking more Saturday am given Friday afternoon package is still 60 hrs out from gametime...  But maybe...given its a holiday weekend for many.  And impact looks to be high. And waiting till after 12Z runs tomorrow gives them 2 more model cycles to see what/if anything changes before hoisting the Black Flag.

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