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Widespread Snow Potential January 16th to January 18th


sferic
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There has been little change in the 12Z model consensus. Snow
will move in slightly faster (perhaps an hour), but models
continue to show a major winter storm impacting the area. Raised
storm total snow amounts slightly east of Lake Ontario, but
only by an inch or two. This area will be close to a dry slot in
the storm system Monday morning, but 12Z models show a bit more
QPF before the dry slot moves in.
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This is a really tough forecast, obviously.  I think most of Central New York becomes a sleet fest after 2 AM. 

In Western New York, I do believe some sleet will mix in... Keeping totals down a bit from what is currently modeled. 

 I tried to pick a time when I thought the synoptic system was done, and true lake-effect kicks in..... This forecast is for the synoptic system only.

 

Screenshot_20220116-141435_Samsung Notes.jpg

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6 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

Verification at KSYR: first pingers 4:45 AM. Dryslot 6:13 AM to 9:53 AM. What’s the prize?

My in house Deterministic  Model (which relies heavily on determining the location of @TugHillMatt for snowfall events), has first pingers 0230, full slot by 0700, lasting thru 1400.

Prize could be an all-inclusive virtual tour of the snow belts of Beyond the Holler Pennsyltucky.

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Bernie Rayno did a whole podcast this am. He talked about Syracuse a lot. He still likes them for 12. “I just don’t see the warm intrusion making it that far with the ULL placement”. He mentions Buffalo, Batavia and Rochester as the bullseye with 2 feet. But I wanted to throw some hope towards you guys. 
I’ll be looking at pressure fall maps soon. 

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4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Bernie Rayno did a whole podcast this am. He talked about Syracuse a lot. He still likes them for 12. “I just don’t see the warm intrusion making it that far with the ULL placement”. He mentions Buffalo, Batavia and Rochester as the bullseye with 2 feet. But I wanted to throw some hope towards you guys. 
I’ll be looking at pressure fall maps soon. 

Rayno really missing the boat if he didn't factor in "The Tug Hill Curse". #protip ;)

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11 minutes ago, 96blizz said:

BGM upgraded pretty much everyone to a warning. I don’t see much difference in my forecast yet though. 

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