Ericjcrash Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Euro and UK really going up here. Getting jucier and juicier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 6:04 PM, ayuud11 said: Already up to 31F in Buffalo. Expand From -3 to 23 here. Should hit 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 6:12 PM, wolfie09 said: Need to start looking at temps and we can't see in-between frames.. Expand Damn that’s ugly. That’s all sleet here verbatim. Most of the entire Thruway corridor from SYR to BUF even to Erie is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Euro is pretty close to rgem at 1Am.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Ready or not here it comes. The leading edge is probably not reaching the ground. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 6:12 PM, wolfie09 said: Need to start looking at temps and we can't see in-between frames.. Expand Start?!? I’ve been obsessing for days. Lol. Right on the cusp. The maps are more aggressive than the soundings. But it’s very close. As Vort said, dynamic cooling should help. NYC always gets saved by it- why can’t we for once? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 6:15 PM, rochesterdave said: Start?!? I’ve been obsessing for days. Lol. Right on the cusp. The maps are more aggressive than the soundings. But it’s very close. As Vort said, dynamic cooling should help. NYC always gets saved by it- why can’t we for once? Expand I'm no pro, but I would be shocked if there were any sleet mixed in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Yep. One would think this might support a lot of mixing. IDK. Similar to earlier runs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Wonder if it would be graupal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owensnow Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Really hopeful this thing amps up and makes a NW jog to put me in some snows. Very close to nothing right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 6:24 PM, Owensnow said: Really hopeful this thing amps up and makes a NW jog to put me in some snows. Very close to nothing right now. Expand Your hope is our disaster. Lol 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Hrrr continues to look better than the rgem/euro but it's definitely marginal..Well we'll know soon enough lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 6:24 PM, Owensnow said: Really hopeful this thing amps up and makes a NW jog to put me in some snows. Very close to nothing right now. Expand You're near Detroit lol? THis post won't make popular on here haha. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 6:12 PM, Ericjcrash said: Euro and UK really going up here. Getting jucier and juicier. Expand Euro’s been pretty good down here in Delco, at least compared to other models. Hoping it’s right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 This storm is the perfect test for the model snow algorithm’s. The maps look great. The temp profiles kind of suggest a different story. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 6:23 PM, tim123 said: Wonder if it would be graupal. Expand I was thinking than too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 6:24 PM, Owensnow said: Really hopeful this thing amps up and makes a NW jog to put me in some snows. Very close to nothing right now. Expand Are you trying to steal my snow, lol. You’re almost to Detroit! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Pretty massive jump east on NWS map 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owensnow Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 6:27 PM, rochesterdave said: Your hope is our disaster. Lol Expand I get that but cant help but think a 75-100 mile shift west is logical. Most storms that head to this region end up much farther north and west than previously thought. We currently are running a zero snow cover and extreme snow drought. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Looks like the banding is creating warmth? Mixing seems to follow it north.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 6:42 PM, rochesterdave said: Pretty massive jump east on NWS map Expand Talk dirty to us… 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 NBM I wanted to post a GIF of the composite reflectivity but it's too large to post more than a few frames. That band has been well advertised on the models... definitely looks like 2-4"/hour rates might be possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 6:42 PM, rochesterdave said: Pretty massive jump east on NWS map Expand Why do they do this to me lol Especially with the models showing sleet during heaviest precipitation..Hrrr does have 1.5" liquid overnight, couple hours of sleet, hope that verifies, which it won't lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 6:44 PM, Owensnow said: I get that but cant help but think a 75-100 mile shift west is logical. Most storms that head to this region end up much farther north and west than previously thought. We currently are running a zero snow cover and extreme snow drought. Expand You trolling? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 6:48 PM, wolfie09 said: Why do they do this to me lol Especially with the models showing sleet during heaviest precipitation..Hrrr does have 1.5" overnight, couple hours of sleet, hope that verifies, which it won't lol Expand Looking forward to their disco. You’d hope that they have cohesive reasoning behind such a huge jump. They moved the 12-18 by like 40 miles 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 6:52 PM, rochesterdave said: Looking forward to their disco. You’d hope that they have cohesive reasoning behind such a huge jump. They moved the 12-18 by like 40 miles Expand Probably cause nam shifted 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 6:42 PM, rochesterdave said: Pretty massive jump east on NWS map Expand Like to see that after the 12" line (basically a proxy for mix/dry zone) was charging west for 2-3 straight updates and was well across Monroe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 6:47 PM, BGM Blizzard said: NBM I wanted to post a GIF of the composite reflectivity but it's too large to post more than a few frames. That band has been well advertised on the models... definitely looks like 2-4"/hour rates might be possible. Expand What the hell is the NBM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 6:42 PM, rochesterdave said: Pretty massive jump east on NWS map Expand It's always like that...just before the #fail. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 6:54 PM, tim123 said: Probably cause nam shifted Expand Seems like they’ve been hugging the 3k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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