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Widespread Snow Potential January 16th to January 18th


sferic
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20 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

If you look closely I’m still in the blue area. :D  We’re almost into now casting time. Looking at all these models is giving me a headache. Beautiful blue skies here, it’s hard to believe 12 hours from now we could be getting heavy snow. Up to 14 degrees. 

Kind of same. Been looking at models, skew-Ts till my eyes pop out for 3 days. It's all blended together now. Interested mainly in the initial dump and dryslot action to see if the models work out over CNY. Since we got no help from 0Z models, I can see why KBGM went WWA. Even if we hit 7"+, (which ibthink we will) it'll be drawn out longer than the time criteria for a Warning.

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Also, greater Syracuse is quite borderline for snow
amounts, and incoming models will help us determine whether to
maintain high end Advisory or adjoin Onondaga to the existing
Warning to its north and west. It is a close call, because while
the overall snow totals appear a bit foreboding, only 4-6
inches of it is anticipated with the storm itself overnight
followed by a relative lull in the morning to midday before snow
showers redevelop in the afternoon-evening as lake enhanced to
lake effect gets going.
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4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:
Also, greater Syracuse is quite borderline for snow
amounts, and incoming models will help us determine whether to
maintain high end Advisory or adjoin Onondaga to the existing
Warning to its north and west. It is a close call, because while
the overall snow totals appear a bit foreboding, only 4-6
inches of it is anticipated with the storm itself overnight
followed by a relative lull in the morning to midday before snow
showers redevelop in the afternoon-evening as lake enhanced to
lake effect gets going.

KBGM has had some really good discos about this system over the past few days. Clearly they are seeing the same things the rest of us are regarding CNY. 

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8 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Well if the rgem verified we would lose a decent amount of precipitation to mixing.. During the heaviest portion of the event..

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If I get woken up at 2 am by heavy sleet with a low over Harrisburg, I will not be happy about that. We need to be piling up 6-8" overnight or this could really go sideways.

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