tim123 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 12z Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 20 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: If you look closely I’m still in the blue area. We’re almost into now casting time. Looking at all these models is giving me a headache. Beautiful blue skies here, it’s hard to believe 12 hours from now we could be getting heavy snow. Up to 14 degrees. Kind of same. Been looking at models, skew-Ts till my eyes pop out for 3 days. It's all blended together now. Interested mainly in the initial dump and dryslot action to see if the models work out over CNY. Since we got no help from 0Z models, I can see why KBGM went WWA. Even if we hit 7"+, (which ibthink we will) it'll be drawn out longer than the time criteria for a Warning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Also if no one noticed forecast calling for 45 mph wind gusts Monday evening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Also, greater Syracuse is quite borderline for snow amounts, and incoming models will help us determine whether to maintain high end Advisory or adjoin Onondaga to the existing Warning to its north and west. It is a close call, because while the overall snow totals appear a bit foreboding, only 4-6 inches of it is anticipated with the storm itself overnight followed by a relative lull in the morning to midday before snow showers redevelop in the afternoon-evening as lake enhanced to lake effect gets going. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Tornado outbreak in Florida. Snow in Southern Mississippi. Almost like 93. Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Also, greater Syracuse is quite borderline for snow amounts, and incoming models will help us determine whether to maintain high end Advisory or adjoin Onondaga to the existing Warning to its north and west. It is a close call, because while the overall snow totals appear a bit foreboding, only 4-6 inches of it is anticipated with the storm itself overnight followed by a relative lull in the morning to midday before snow showers redevelop in the afternoon-evening as lake enhanced to lake effect gets going. KBGM has had some really good discos about this system over the past few days. Clearly they are seeing the same things the rest of us are regarding CNY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Nice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Looks like a land falling hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 6 minutes ago, tim123 said: Looks like a land falling hurricane It’s a well developed mid latitude cyclone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Am I really going to chase this thing at 3am? Seems like it could actually be worth it with crazy rates for a couple hours. Look at the forcing on the RGEM 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Am I really going to chase this thing at 3am? Seems like it could actually be worth it with crazy rates for a couple hours. Look at the forcing on the RGEM Nws in buffalo did mention thundersnow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, Blue Moon said: It's quiet in here. Everyone must be passed out or hung over after the Bills game last night Saving strength for the chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, Blue Moon said: It's quiet in here. Everyone must be passed out or hung over after the Bills game last night Out enjoying a gorgeous day with the fam. Time for a hike. Been at it since 4AM. Benefits of not drinking. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 So did the NAM shift east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Just now, vortmax said: So did the NAM shift east? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Hrrr drops this is 6 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Well if the rgem verified we would lose a decent amount of precipitation to mixing.. During the heaviest portion of the event.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Anyone have any concerns with some of the trends on the RAP? It has moved progressively west and has highest totals near Cleveland now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 15 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Am I really going to chase this thing at 3am? Seems like it could actually be worth it with crazy rates for a couple hours. Look at the forcing on the RGEM You know you want to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Hour 18 12z euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Anyone have any concerns with some of the trends on the RAP? It has moved progressively west and has highest totals near Cleveland now. RAP has over 2 feet here. That model blows. Yesterday it had the heaviest axis over SYR , today it’s over Erie to BUF. Toss it right in the trash. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 6 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Anyone have any concerns with some of the trends on the RAP? It has moved progressively west and has highest totals near Cleveland now. Not worried about RAP too much. Last storm it nailed was like the Blizzard of 1888. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Doesn't anyone think there will be enough dynamic cooling in the def zone to prevent any mixing? I mean we are talking about a rapidly deepening 980 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 8 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Well if the rgem verified we would lose a decent amount of precipitation to mixing.. During the heaviest portion of the event.. If I get woken up at 2 am by heavy sleet with a low over Harrisburg, I will not be happy about that. We need to be piling up 6-8" overnight or this could really go sideways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Already up to 31F in Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Euro colder gets syr close to a foot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Euro looks great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 7 minutes ago, vortmax said: Doesn't anyone think there will be enough dynamic cooling in the def zone to prevent any mixing? I mean we are talking about a rapidly deepening 980 low. That’s our prayer. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Need to start looking at temps and we can't see in-between frames.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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