BuffaloWeather Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 GFS still farthest NW camp, it has been the most accurate model so far with this storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 9 minutes ago, sferic said: HRRR looking better, no ? That's just up to 3 AM Monday, though, right? Most models seem to be increasing amounts for Toronto, for the entirety of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 GEM has some sleet mixing in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 hour ago, MGorse said: Short staffed again but we are making it work. Amazing the arctic air in place now will be gone tonight with just a wind driven rain occurring. Reminds me of a few of those storm in Philly in winters of 13/14 and 14/15. Going from single digits and teens to rain and 50s/60s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: GEM has some sleet mixing in Been showing that for days. But soundings look ok. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 16, 2022 Author Share Posted January 16, 2022 9 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said: That's just up to 3 AM Monday, though, right? Most models seem to be increasing amounts for Toronto, for the entirety of the storm. Yes, 3am Monday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Rgem has mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Not an expert here by any stretch but Hrrr is marginal between 1-3am.. Culprit right around 850 mb.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Not an expert here by any stretch but Hrrr is marginal between 1-3am.. Culprit right around 850 mb.. Yeah there is most likely going to be some sleet even here, especially if GFS is correct with track. That is pretty far NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Slip sliding away. Lol. Gonna be tight in SE Monroe county. I’d be better off in Irondequoit but I prefer it here for storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah there is most likely going to be some sleet even here, especially if GFS is correct with track. That is pretty far NW. Yep. A lot of signals screaming high bust potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said: True for most... Sleet and/or dryslot continue to show up over one of the most infuriating weather locations. Look on the brightside...6" of i-95 gruel will have some staying power esp given the cold regime forecast for the next week or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Close. But looks like snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 59 minutes ago, tim123 said: That's a disgusting look for Syracuse northern burbs. Almost looks like one of my trolling attempts at @TugHillMatt. Its almost as if the model is now trolling me. Sad Days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 16, 2022 Author Share Posted January 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, Syrmax said: That's a disgusting look for Syracuse northern burbs. Almost looks like one of my trolling attempts at @TugHillMatt. Its almost as if the model is now trolling me. Sad Days. That yellow in Cuse on is "mixed"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, sferic said: That yellow in Cuse on is "mixed"? It's yellow/green vomit. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, Syrmax said: It's yellow/green vomit. Depending on certain things, that can be high ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Just now, 96blizz said: Depending on certain things, that can be high ratio. High ratio vomit. Lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 11 minutes ago, Syrmax said: That's a disgusting look for Syracuse northern burbs. Almost looks like one of my trolling attempts at @TugHillMatt. Its almost as if the model is now trolling me. Sad Days. If you look closely I’m still in the blue area. We’re almost into now casting time. Looking at all these models is giving me a headache. Beautiful blue skies here, it’s hard to believe 12 hours from now we could be getting heavy snow. Up to 14 degrees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 hour ago, tim123 said: Rgem crushes rochester. Entire area does good. Yeah I feel like I’m in a perfect position here in KROC Even the tiniest jog East puts us squarely in the crosshairs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Hi rez canadian looks nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 NWS picking up on the mixing with sleet after 1 am which many of the SR models have.. How long it last determines how much snow we see lol Forecast solid even with sleet mixing in.. Tonight Snow after 10pm, mixing with sleet after 1am. The snow could be heavy at times. Temperature falling to near 17 by 8pm, then rising to around 29 during the remainder of the night. Southeast wind 13 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. M.L.King Day Snow, possibly mixed with sleet, becoming all snow after 8am. Areas of blowing snow after 3pm. High near 31. Northeast wind 6 to 11 mph becoming northwest 13 to 18 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Monday Night Snow before 1am, then snow showers likely after 1am. Areas of blowing snow. Low around 10. Blustery, with a northwest wind 17 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 7 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Yeah I feel like I’m in a perfect position here in KROC Even the tiniest jog East puts us squarely in the crosshairs. Are you concerned with the dryslot and sleet dynamics being so near us to our east? I’d love a little jog to the east. You are probably in the safer part of Monroe county. The rest of us are east siders Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Here was kbuf morning map.. Looks like the 9" over 24hr type warning..(eastern lake Ontario) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 P&C down to 3-7 for tonight and also tomorrow. It could go either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: I have to LOL that map for obviously reasons.. 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Lol.. Yeah it has a big blob of yellow right over matt and SW Oswego at that frame.. 32 minutes ago, Syrmax said: That's a disgusting look for Syracuse northern burbs. Almost looks like one of my trolling attempts at @TugHillMatt. Its almost as if the model is now trolling me. Sad Days. I just can't even. It's disgusting. Snow EVERYWHERE around us. I am telling you...the curse is real. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Hi res Canadian @tim123 Bunch o' sleet in CNY. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 8 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Are you concerned with the dryslot and sleet dynamics being so near us to our east? I’d love a little jog to the east. You are probably in the safer part of Monroe county. The rest of us are east siders It’s definitely on my mind but I think we get a 50 mile eastward shift during the final run up the coast. Also im hoping any warm layer is fleeting as it’s wraps into the backside of this. Genny valley is it the battle zone. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, DeltaT13 said: It’s definitely on my mind but I think we get a 50 miles eastward shift during the final run up the coast. Also im hoping any warm layer is fleeting as it’s wraps into the backside of this. Genny valley is it the battle zone. Thanks. My hope too. Should be fun! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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