wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I can't say for sure but I wonder if icon is chasing convection.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 50-100 mile shift to the East. Really pretty normal stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 We'll see if the GFS follows but the icon is still suspect to me, not that it matters, it will change in 6 hours lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: We'll see if the GFS follows but the icon is still suspect to me, not that it matters, it will change in 6 hours lol Yeah. I see what you mean. That 96 hour jump east is suspect. But sub 980 over Massachusetts ain’t bad 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Yeah. I see what you mean. That 96 hour jump east is suspect. But sub 980 over Massachusetts ain’t bad I wouldn't fixate on the exact qpf but icon does show a "mega-band" right where we want it for the most part...for CNY. FWIW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMikeWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: We'll see if the GFS follows but the icon is still suspect to me, not that it matters, it will change in 6 hours lol Honestly wouldn't complain with that nice band from ROC to Lowville, crushing Tug Hill, would make for some nice snowmobiling Monday. ICON feels really fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Definitely looks like it's experiencing some convective feedback with that low placement, but as the rest said, it all depends on how it handles that northern stream energy about to make its West Coast entrance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Verbatim we miss all the good stuff to the east.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 12Z GFS through 81hrs pretty similar to 06Z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, wolfie09 said: Verbatim we miss all the good stuff to the east.. Our Binghamton peeps would be happy. No way it’s that narrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 20 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: This is basically my prediction from yesterday. Most of us want to see the low going from Harrisburg or Philly to Albany or Springfield. This keeps it basically Atlantic City to Boston, with the heaviest snow east of Syracuse and ROC-BUF barely advisory-worthy. Really want my gut feeling to be wrong. Regardless the name of the game is getting into that deformation band, which has been insane on basically every run. Whoever's in there looking at easily 12"+. Outside of that will be a decent hit, but not remarkable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, vortmax said: 12Z GFS through 81hrs pretty similar to 06Z. If anything, it’s more tucked 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, vortmax said: 12Z GFS through 81hrs pretty similar to 06Z. H500 looks virtually identical thru hr 84. We'll see what the surface looks like... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, rochesterdave said: If anything, it’s more tucked The 06Z GFS has that same LP wobble, chasing the convection. With a true Miller A, there shouldn't be any transfers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 There’s always going to be wobbles. I’ve stayed out of the debate but this is 100% an A. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Right over the NYC metro area.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 And I’m 100% right at least 50% of the time. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 12Z GFS a major hit for just about everyone, again. Wow. Kuchera already about 2' for South Shore before it's over. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, wolfie09 said: That would be ideal for this forum. Minimal if any slotting and no mix/rain other than very lower HV... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: WOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Still not buying the double-barrel look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Whoever is in that deform band to NW of the storm will be happy. Just clobbers WNY, still believe that band ends up across Central NY. It drops 1-1.75" of QPF for all of Upstate. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 We all get 12 hours of very heavy snow. 1-2 feet for everyone. Lakeshore lollies of 24”+ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 The 12Z EC run will be VERY interesting. This is the time when these runs start to really converge and dictate reality. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Only need the GFS to stay the same for another 10 runs. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, vortmax said: The 12Z EC run will be VERY interesting. Bet it’s similar. The big models seem to do better with these BIG ones. We aren’t used to A’s. We are used to these anafrontal things. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMikeWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, Syrmax said: That would be ideal for this forum. Minimal if any slotting and no mix/rain other than very lower HV... Agreed, even I would see decent numbers from that here in Middletown. Not sure why but this exact same map from WB has northern NJ and NYC in the snow also...vs Trop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I’d be amazed if GEFS don’t cave 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Models have been pretty consistent in showing banding across the NW flanks of the storm. Whoever ends up in that band of death @Syrmax is going to experience some incredible synoptic snowfall rates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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