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Widespread Snow Potential January 16th to January 18th


sferic
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We saw this coming. 
 

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
5 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations
  of 4 to 7 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze. Winds
  gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Oneida, Onondaga, Chemung, Tompkins, Madison, Cortland
  and Tioga counties.

* WHEN...From 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow starts this evening, then changes to a
  mix late tonight, then back to snow Monday morning.

 

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Precipitation Type/Snow:Water Ratios...

The strong surge of warm advection in the warm conveyor driven by
the 80+ knot southeasterly low level jet may bring enough warm air
aloft into play to allow for a brief mix with sleet tonight for a
few hours. The mix with sleet may last a little longer across
Central NY and the southern Tug Hill region. Across Western NY, the
mix with sleet will be brief enough to not significantly impact snow
amounts, but it will hold down amounts in Central NY to some extent.

Snow:Water ratios tonight in the warm conveyor will likely be fairly
low, around 10:1 or even a little lower. A deep isothermal layer
beneath the dentritic growth zone in the mid levels suggests heavily
rimed conglomerates resulting in an "icy" snow initially. Snow:Water
ratios will steadily increase from west to east on Monday as the
thermodynamic structure improves within the deformation zone, and as
the column cools. By late Monday afternoon ratios will likely be
18:1 or better, especially in areas of developing lake enhancement
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