vortmax Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 18Z ICON precip shield looks west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 15, 2022 Author Share Posted January 15, 2022 11 minutes ago, 96blizz said: RGEM looks awesome! Love it, even if it's Kuchera How come my Paid pivotal on the I don't see the RDPS in NorthEast mode only national view? I can se all the others in NE view Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 13 minutes ago, vortmax said: 18Z ICON precip shield looks west. Can you post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 16 minutes ago, Gorizer said: Also representing the Eastern part of the thread here. At about 1,500 ft elevation in western Schenectady County, I typically fall into the "Helderbergs" part of the forecast, and high enough to avoid any easterlies shadowing. Just worried about the taint at this point that could really cut that top end of the range down. You usually do pretty well. Let's hope for the best 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Can you post? 12Z 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 18Z GFS running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Looks like euro and rgem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, tim123 said: Looks like euro and rgem. Less precip. That def band seems to move north quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, vortmax said: Less precip. That def band seems to move north quickly. I think the GFS won’t pick up on some of the lake enhanced the way the Meso models will. Great run for GFS regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, 96blizz said: I think the GFS won’t pick up on some of the lake enhanced the way the Meso models will. Great run for GFS regardless. I meant less than its 12Z run. Looks like it is caving to the NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 GFS is drier out west, little wetter east.. Really all noise at this point.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 GFS brings the LP to just east of Syracuse. Wish these would stop. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: GFS brings the LP to just east of Syracuse. Wish these would stop. Lol It’s a decent jump East though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Model uncertainty... The 12Z/15 NAM right now has the biggest impacts on snowfall amounts. If it where to verify, there would be a period of mixed precipitation for a period across parts of the CWA Sunday night. This would lower snowfall totals from current forecasts. That said, most all other guidance is still colder aloft. Although, the GFS and ECMWF do get close to 0C aloft (850 hpa) when the warm conveyer belt moves through the region. So can`t completely rule out a change over for some locations or a mix but thinking the NAM is a bit too warm and the outlier. As was previously said, have opted to keep it all snow. However, wouldn`t be surprised at all if some sleet mixes in from time to time for a brief period. Will need to closely monitored this potenial as the event nears. Next concern, where will the advertised strong deformation zone and trowel actually set up. 12Z/15 Canadian-NH guidance pivots it slightly to the west of Western NY and then across Lake Ontario. This would focus the heaviest snowfall across northern portions of the Niagara Frontier and along the south shore of the Lake Ontario. The GFS/ECMWF has it focused across Western NY to Rochester in a more of a SW to NE orientation. Only time will tell or until all guidance gets in line. Synopsis... Snow will rapidly overspread the area from south to north Sunday evening. This initial phase of heavy snow will be driven by a powerful 80+ knot southeasterly low level jet and warm conveyor on the front side of the system, transporting copious amounts of Atlantic moisture into NY. Strong forcing from DPVA ahead of the mid level wave, a coupled upper level jet structure, strongly diffluent upper level flow, and strong isentropic upglide within the warm conveyor will come together to produce a period of deep, strong ascent. Forecast soundings show strong ascent through the dendritic growth zone, which is quite high in the 10-15K foot layer, with a deep saturated layer and ascent below supporting ongoing collection of supercooled water for snow falling through the column. Snow will likely continue over Western NY overnight Sunday through the early morning hours and into early afternoon. That said, as was previously mention above there could be some sleet. Precipitation then pulls eastward across Central NY and the eastern Lake Ontario region from mid afternoon through early evening as the surface low accelerates into northern New England. The heaviest and longest lasting snow will likely be found across a portion of Western NY which will then likely weaken with time and have less residence time with eastern extent. As far as accumulations go, storm totals are forecast in the 12-20" range across much of far Western NY, and 8-12" across the eastern Lake Ontario region. Again, to hammer this home. Placement of the deformation zone is key to the higher amounts. Also, if the NAM trend shows up in other guidance the added sleet will knock down accumulations. So don`t focus on the higher end of these ranges just yet. Overall, confidence is still high to achieve warning criteria across Western NY with Winter Storm Warning still in place. A Winter Storm Watch still remain in effect east of Lake Ontario where forecast amounts are lower due to less precipitation anticipated. Monday night, some lake effect snow will develop following the exit of the widespread synoptic snow. This will add several more inches of accumulation southeast of Lake Erie for the Chautauqua Ridge, and also areas southeast of Lake Ontario from the Monroe County shore east to Oswego County. Winds will be relatively light initially in this event Sunday night through Monday morning, with 20+ mph winds limited to the south shore of Lake Ontario. Winds will increase markedly later Monday afternoon and Monday night as the pressure gradient tightens in the wake of the system, with wind gusts of over 35 mph likely areawide. This will result in blowing and drifting snow during the latter stages of this event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Have to say the 18z Canadian looks great for Toronto and Buffalo. Has the snow starting by 11PM Sunday night in Buffalo, 1 AM Monday in Toronto and pretty much continuing until Monday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Precipitation went up close to a third of an inch on the GFS (1.3"ish) but once again 10-1 maps don't reflect that lol Not sure if that's a PW thing or some in-between frames mixing lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 NWS point and click is 9” here in Skaneateles before lake effect with zero mention of mixing. Not sure I buy that but I will take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sub_Zero Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 13 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said: Have to say the 18z Canadian looks great for Toronto and Buffalo. Has the snow starting by 11PM Sunday night in Buffalo, 1 AM Monday in Toronto and pretty much continuing until Monday afternoon. This storm brings me back to December 2007, remember that here in Ottawa? @Organizing Lowwith the play by play, it was epic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brentrich Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Looks like Rochester, NY is in the jackpot zone - high chance Roc will get 24" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Several of them definitely trying to screw over CNY lol Member number 17 please.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Member#7 and the board would melt lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 29 minutes ago, 96blizz said: It’s a decent jump East though. But look at how the isobars are actually broader and more spread out. The placement of little L isn’t all that critical compared to how the overall pressure gradient is worse for wny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 23 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Model uncertainty... The 12Z/15 NAM right now has the biggest impacts on snowfall amounts. If it where to verify, there would be a period of mixed precipitation for a period across parts of the CWA Sunday night. This would lower snowfall totals from current forecasts. That said, most all other guidance is still colder aloft. Although, the GFS and ECMWF do get close to 0C aloft (850 hpa) when the warm conveyer belt moves through the region. So can`t completely rule out a change over for some locations or a mix but thinking the NAM is a bit too warm and the outlier. As was previously said, have opted to keep it all snow. However, wouldn`t be surprised at all if some sleet mixes in from time to time for a brief period. Will need to closely monitored this potenial as the event nears. Next concern, where will the advertised strong deformation zone and trowel actually set up. 12Z/15 Canadian-NH guidance pivots it slightly to the west of Western NY and then across Lake Ontario. This would focus the heaviest snowfall across northern portions of the Niagara Frontier and along the south shore of the Lake Ontario. The GFS/ECMWF has it focused across Western NY to Rochester in a more of a SW to NE orientation. Only time will tell or until all guidance gets in line. Synopsis... Snow will rapidly overspread the area from south to north Sunday evening. This initial phase of heavy snow will be driven by a powerful 80+ knot southeasterly low level jet and warm conveyor on the front side of the system, transporting copious amounts of Atlantic moisture into NY. Strong forcing from DPVA ahead of the mid level wave, a coupled upper level jet structure, strongly diffluent upper level flow, and strong isentropic upglide within the warm conveyor will come together to produce a period of deep, strong ascent. Forecast soundings show strong ascent through the dendritic growth zone, which is quite high in the 10-15K foot layer, with a deep saturated layer and ascent below supporting ongoing collection of supercooled water for snow falling through the column. Snow will likely continue over Western NY overnight Sunday through the early morning hours and into early afternoon. That said, as was previously mention above there could be some sleet. Precipitation then pulls eastward across Central NY and the eastern Lake Ontario region from mid afternoon through early evening as the surface low accelerates into northern New England. The heaviest and longest lasting snow will likely be found across a portion of Western NY which will then likely weaken with time and have less residence time with eastern extent. As far as accumulations go, storm totals are forecast in the 12-20" range across much of far Western NY, and 8-12" across the eastern Lake Ontario region. Again, to hammer this home. Placement of the deformation zone is key to the higher amounts. Also, if the NAM trend shows up in other guidance the added sleet will knock down accumulations. So don`t focus on the higher end of these ranges just yet. Overall, confidence is still high to achieve warning criteria across Western NY with Winter Storm Warning still in place. A Winter Storm Watch still remain in effect east of Lake Ontario where forecast amounts are lower due to less precipitation anticipated. Monday night, some lake effect snow will develop following the exit of the widespread synoptic snow. This will add several more inches of accumulation southeast of Lake Erie for the Chautauqua Ridge, and also areas southeast of Lake Ontario from the Monroe County shore east to Oswego County. Winds will be relatively light initially in this event Sunday night through Monday morning, with 20+ mph winds limited to the south shore of Lake Ontario. Winds will increase markedly later Monday afternoon and Monday night as the pressure gradient tightens in the wake of the system, with wind gusts of over 35 mph likely areawide. This will result in blowing and drifting snow during the latter stages of this event. Glad to hear they are discounting the NAM. Are we keeping both boards alive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Several of them definitely trying to screw over CNY lol Member number 17 please.. Is there anyone else that simply can't read the contours on these maps? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 18z Ggem... No surprise given what the rgem 18z showed.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Last Canadian lol 18z high Rez, pretty similar to last run..Has some mixing but tries to break it up as the band moves north fwiw 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 BUF dropping 18-24” for a synoptic storm in WNY. Just wow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 hour ago, 96blizz said: It’s a decent jump East though. It’s easier to look at the overall field as opposed to just the point LP. It blipped west a bit. Nothing too dramatic but these blips add up for those of us living on the edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 hour ago, 96blizz said: It’s a decent jump East though. But it blows the deformation band much farther west. Verbatim, this is the difference between ROC being in the jackpot zone vs. being in the "good, but not great" zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 9 minutes ago, PerintonMan said: But it blows the deformation band much farther west. Verbatim, this is the difference between ROC being in the jackpot zone vs. being in the "good, but not great" zone. Yea, we really need a SE shift. Only way that happens is a weaker wave, later phase. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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