wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 12z high res Canadian 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 It looks almost identical to 12z. Hoped for that tick. No tick for you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: It looks almost identical to 12z. Hoped for that tick. No tick for you. Thats because it is the 12z 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Yeah still a couple hours till the 18z run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said: Thats because it is the 12z I was referring to the NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 16 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: You gotta love it. We do NOT see this very often. 969. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Starting to buy those Nam runs and cutting back totals bit by bit over the eastern area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Seems they are buying the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 New forecast still shows all snow.. Sunday Night Snow, mainly after 11pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 14. Southeast wind around 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. M.L.King Day Snow. High near 30. East wind 10 to 15 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Monday Night Snow before 11pm, then snow showers likely after 11pm. Areas of blowing snow. Low around 12. Blustery, with a northwest wind 17 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Not liking how it's bringing the 12" line back into Monroe County. The NAM run was hideous and shows the potential for a really ugly sleet to dry slot solution with the monster band just to our NW. I feel like the two outcomes IMBY are: A. ticks a little east, stay all snow, mostly in the monster band + some backside lake-enhancement --> 16" B. ticks a little west, front end thump, then taint, then mostly dry slot + back end fizzles out --> slow and steady 4-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Where do you find the map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, vortmax said: Seems they are buying the NAM. All models have much less snow east of wayne county. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 6 minutes ago, vortmax said: Seems they are buying the NAM. Yep. They are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: New forecast still shows all snow.. Sunday Night Snow, mainly after 11pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 14. Southeast wind around 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. M.L.King Day Snow. High near 30. East wind 10 to 15 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Monday Night Snow before 11pm, then snow showers likely after 11pm. Areas of blowing snow. Low around 12. Blustery, with a northwest wind 17 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Is that for Pulaski? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Where do you find the map? https://www.weather.gov/buf/winter If you keep clicking it will show a bunch of maps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, PerintonMan said: Not liking how it's bringing the 12" line back into Monroe County. The NAM run was hideous and shows the potential for a really ugly sleet to dry slot solution with the monster band just to our NW. I feel like the two outcomes IMBY are: A. ticks a little east, stay all snow, mostly in the monster band + some backside lake-enhancement --> 16" B. ticks a little west, front end thump, then taint, then mostly dry slot + back end fizzles out --> slow and steady 4-6" The NAM is a shit model as is the ARW. They both are extreme outliers in opposite directions and should both be tossed until theres supports. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 BGM has a good updated discussion and explains why they are waiting on warnings. Probably waiting to see if Nams finally surrender, or if it leads the way with other models at 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Yeah was just posting it lol The synoptic pattern remains complex Sunday and Monday as a cutoff low over the Southeast US interacts with an incoming upper short wave over the Upper Midwest that will quickly drop southeast across the Ohio Valley Sunday morning. The interaction of these two features will be the determining factor in the track of the associated surface low and the entire system. The cutoff low is expected to fold back into the short wave and pull it slightly to the west. A warm front on the northern side of the system will usher in the initial round of precipitation with the air mass cold enough for all snow on the front end with temperatures starting out in the 20s Sunday evening. Strong forcing aloft and a weak band of mid level f-gen on the nwrn side of the low will combine with a strong influx of moisture from the Atlantic to produce a period of steady snow before midnight. Could see an initial 2 to 5 inches with this first round. This initial band of snow is expected to become oriented sw-ne across wrn NY and impact portions of the central southern tier and the wrn Finger Lakes into the overnight hours. An additional 2 to 4 inches is possible overnight. At the same time, a nose of warm air is expected to push in from the southeast, which would act to change the snow over to a mix of sleet and freezing rain, and eventually all rain for parts of the Wyoming Valley and the lower elevations of ne PA...for at least a brief period of time. The challenge with this storm system is the duration, intensity and location of this warm nose. There has recently been some concern that the warm wedge will work farther to the west than previously anticipated. The guidance has calmed down in that area (except for a few models), and is keeping the push of the warm air mainly east of Binghamton. The uncertainty with this warm nose is what has lead to the continuation of the Winter Storm Watch for most of the area. If this nose stays to the east and is relatively fleeting, then the impacts from ice (including keeping snow totals down) will be limited. However, if this warm wedge is stronger and lasts longer than anticipated there could be a lot less snow and more mix of sleet and freezing rain. We are hoping one more round of deterministic model guidance will allow for slightly better agreement about these thermal profiles before going Warning or Advisory. Another feature with this system as it evolves early Monday morning will be the development of a dry slot over ne PA and into the I-81 corridor, combined with the formation of a precip shadow that will occur due to downsloping from the strong southeast winds off the Catskills and Poconos. This feature will likely limit the amount of precipitation during the Monday morning hours. Total snow amounts will range from 9 to 12 inches in the Warning area. There is greater uncertainty in the Watch area where 5 to 9 inches is possible. The lower end of the spectrum will be impacted by the addition of mixed precipitation. The strong southeast winds will need to be watched closely as well, with the combination of the icy conditions and winds up to 40 mph possibly causing scattered power outages. The system wraps up and begins to lift n/newd out of the area during the day Monday with precipitation ending south to north through the afternoon. As this occurs though, the cold air will wrap around the backside across nrn PA into s-central NY and change the mixed precipitation back over to all snow by the late afternoon. There will also be a shift of the winds to the w/nw and an increase as well up to 30 to 40 mph. Blowing and drifting snow will be likely, especially in the areas that see mostly snow with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Observation thread! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Observation thread! Make your forecast your first post on the new thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 8 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: Is that for Pulaski? Yes sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 BUF's forecast for North Cayuga county is waaaay more wintry than BGM's for Onondaga county for the entire next week. Funny to see forecaster observations, opinions, and biases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Icon looks like a carbon copy of euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 And now I'm paranoid cuz I don't care if all the other models stay put I just want to see the NAM move east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 RGEM looks awesome! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 After all the lake effect. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Yeah I'm not buying it lol Rgem has bombed on a couple synoptic events this year already.. Pretty much doesn't have a dry slot which is why I get close 2 feet verbatim lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 hour ago, Ericjcrash said: 116 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy snow and mixed precipitation are potentially possible. Total snow and sleet accumulations of 4 to 12 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze possible. Winds could gust to 40 to 50 mph over the higher terrain. * WHERE...Southern Vermont, southern Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley, eastern Catskills, Helderbergs and the Lake George northern Saratoga Region and Schoharie Valley in eastern New York and the Berkshires of western Massachusetts. AKA we don't know if the NAM or Euro is right. Also representing the Eastern part of the thread here. At about 1,500 ft elevation in western Schenectady County, I typically fall into the "Helderbergs" part of the forecast, and high enough to avoid any easterlies shadowing. Just worried about the taint at this point that could really cut that top end of the range down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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