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Widespread Snow Potential January 16th to January 18th


sferic
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1 minute ago, rochesterdave said:

I love how we have different crews in here all kinda hoping for different outcomes. We got the eastern boys, the Syracuse/ Tuggies, the Buf and ski crew. Not sure where Skaneatles fits in? 

In Rochester we have Tim, Delta, Perinton, Me, Vort and I’m sure I’m missing someone? 

Think there is a poster from Caledonia and batavia

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Just now, rochesterdave said:

I love how we have different crews in here all kinda hoping for different outcomes. We got the eastern boys, the Syracuse/ Tuggies, the Buf and ski crew. Not sure where Skaneatles fits in? 

In Rochester we have Tim, Delta, Perinton, Me, Vort and I’m sure I’m missing someone? 

Missing me in Caledonia lol. North Livingston a very snow starved area!

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10 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

And I need a tic and a toc....

Yeah we may all need some back end turbo boost from L.O. to get >8".  Reasonably confident of that IMBY but my over/under is 8" for here. Really leery of the warm nose overperforming after an initial 4-6" here.

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4 minutes ago, vortmax said:

According to the EC, there will be 25-30kt winds over the lake hitting the shore for 12hrs+. Does this get taken into consideration for blizzard conditions for the South Shore ctys?

There probably will be a blizzard right at the lakeshore. I've seen that in Oswego when I lived there too but from what I've seen BUF wouldn't issue a blizzard warning unless the conditions were more widespread than that. This storm doesn't have really cold air and high pressure on its nw flank to get really strong winds during the heaviest snowfall. 

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116 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and mixed precipitation are potentially
  possible. Total snow and sleet accumulations of 4 to 12 inches
  and ice accumulations of a light glaze possible. Winds could
  gust to 40 to 50 mph over the higher terrain.

* WHERE...Southern Vermont, southern Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley,
  eastern Catskills, Helderbergs and the Lake George northern
  Saratoga Region and Schoharie Valley in eastern New York and
  the Berkshires of western Massachusetts.

 

AKA we don't know if the NAM or Euro is right. 

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The times I’ve seen blizzard flags hoisted in WNY the LP’s all took tracks and had depths just like this. Like OSU said, the one missing factor is a big HP centered N or NW of us. But I think we’ll see blizzard like conditions for a bit along the lake shore. It’s a holiday so some of the disruptions might be mitigated. I wouldn’t put it out of the range of possibilities.

We are still 36 hours out and we’ve all seen storms go to crap in that window but this one looks loaded and cocked. Like BufWX.  

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4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Pretty solid eastern camp. I know which one you’ll be hoping on. This is a big storm so even the eastern ones still get WNY. I think. The far NW ones were the ones that scare me a little bit. You got the next frame? 

Unfortunately not, stole it from another board lol

I'll take the middle zone right over NJ/SE NY please..

Granted that would probably screw the buffalo crew so maybe a blend lol

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44 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

I love how we have different crews in here all kinda hoping for different outcomes. We got the eastern boys, the Syracuse/ Tuggies, the Buf and ski crew. Not sure where Skaneatles fits in? 

In Rochester we have Tim, Delta, Perinton, Me, Vort and I’m sure I’m missing someone? 

I think me (Skaneateles) is more the Syracuse crew. 

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