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Widespread Snow Potential January 16th to January 18th


sferic
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The 850 mb and 700 mb frontogenetic forcing across western NY looks to be very impressive, particularly associated with the developing and pivoting deformation zone. Here is a snapshot of the 700 mb frontogenesis when the snowfall rates look to be peaking (via the 12z GFS).

gfs_temp_adv_fgen_700_neus_8.png

gfs_temp_adv_fgen_700_neus_9.png

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2 minutes ago, MGorse said:

The 850 mb and 700 mb frontogenetic forcing across western NY looks to be very impressive, particularly associated with the developing and pivoting deformation zone. Here is a snapshot of the 700 mb frontogenesis when the snowfall rates look to be peaking (via the 12z GFS).

gfs_temp_adv_fgen_700_neus_8.png

gfs_temp_adv_fgen_700_neus_9.png

Thundersnow?

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16 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Thundersnow?

I am not seeing much evidence in the forecast soundings of elevated instability. The 12z NAM though hints at it for a time at ROC early Monday morning, but probably not enough. Given the dynamics though, it would not be shocking if there are a few lightning flashes associated with the peaking deformation band.

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Solid forecast as it stands now..

Looks like they are going 6"-10" Sunday night for Kbuf-Kroc..

Still have yet to hit zero (-3°), forecast high is 4°..

 

Sunday Night
Snow, mainly after 11pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 14. Southeast wind around 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
M.L.King Day
Snow. High near 30. East wind 10 to 15 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
Monday Night
Snow before 11pm, then snow showers likely after 11pm. Areas of blowing snow. Low around 12. Blustery. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
 
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