Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 6 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: From what I can see the 925s are the most marginal for CNY, obviously could be some sneaky layers in there.. It's good enough for the meat of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 6 minutes ago, tim123 said: Anyone know what you wanna look for to forecast thundersnow? I think the potential is there? Possibly. Here is the nam3km at buf with steep 3 to 6km lapse rates of 7.1 c/km. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Also, 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 20 minutes ago, vortmax said: Really nice 700 RH with -12 850s on NW flow. Should be some really nice LE before the dry air moves in Tues 12Z. I think there could be some 2'+ lollies on the SS if we stay all snow by that time. Too bad that clipper is way north now. Sucks. Yeah trended towards the euro with that feature.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 22 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: So I’m guessing BW that THIS synoptic event will be as good as an LES event ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 hours ago, LakeEffectKing said: I think for areas Southeast of lake Ontario, there will be a decent amount of lake effect snow for some areas through Tue. morning. 4-8" as a first guess.. BGM had a tidbit about this in their discussion that the Syracuse area may have to have an advisory for the lake snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 hour ago, sferic said: Will that snow hole courtesy of a dry slot still encompass Syracuse ? What needs to happen for the dry slot to shift ? Me staying in Pennsylvania. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Cmc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Definitely looks better at the mid levels. But damn! Can we stop ticking that LP NW?!? 982 over Elmira. Whew Baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 hour ago, 96blizz said: Take a nap during the dry slot! Nope 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 CMC is serious. Loving it. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, tim123 said: Cmc. Tim, CMC would be ideal. Last 8 runs have been the same. Nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, vortmax said: CMC is serious. Loving it. And colder. I’m not sure who mentioned it earlier this AM but are we starting to see dynamic cooling? RGEM too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, 96blizz said: And colder. I’m not sure who mentioned it earlier this AM but are we starting to see dynamic cooling? RGEM too. Yeah. You can see it on the 850 maps. A colder core pulled in on the NW side. I never 100% believed those mixing maps yesterday. Too much. Ya never know 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 That entire blob of cold over WNY was missing yesterday. Dynamic cooling I’d suspect 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, 96blizz said: And colder. I’m not sure who mentioned it earlier this AM but are we starting to see dynamic cooling? RGEM too. Agreed. 700 temps are a couple degrees cooler (-5C) on the warmest frame, which is key. Really hoping to see the 12k relax a bit on its 18Z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, Blue Moon said: That's hot Yeah it would be nice wouldn't it? Lol Not necessarily buying it at the moment.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 11 minutes ago, Blue Moon said: That's hot Illegal word. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Here’s one for the downstate weenies. I don’t give it much chance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, TugHillMatt said: Illegal word. What about hawt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, rochesterdave said: Here’s one for the downstate weenies. I don’t give it much chance Anyone clinging to this in their forum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Ukie precipitation 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Ouch must have some mixing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, Blue Moon said: Any suspicion the WRF is onto a SE trend, or is it just an anomaly? An isuckomaly. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Ouch must have some mixing.. Kind of odd that there's a discrepancy on 10:1 even up to Montreal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I don't know... I think the Rap's got this figured out. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Ouch must have some mixing.. From what I can see mid levels look fine, not sure what PW problem is lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, Ericjcrash said: Kind of odd that there's a discrepancy on 10:1 even up to Montreal. I think it's a glitch TBH.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, Blue Moon said: Any suspicion the WRF is onto a SE trend, or is it just an anomaly? From a climo standpoint it looks legit, but an extreme outlier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: I think it's a glitch TBH.. I agree. No way it's less than 10:1 up there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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