tim123 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Kutchie for fun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Dynamic ratio. Similar to kuchie I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: Thats entire run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I think for areas Southeast of lake Ontario, there will be a decent amount of lake effect snow for some areas through Tue. morning. 4-8" as a first guess.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, tim123 said: Thats entire run? That’s hr65. Would be some lake stuff after I believe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 One last reference to the volcano, only because I don't think the banter thread is going to get a lot of action and this is time sensitive... ...check this out.. https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/basicLooper.pl?category=goeswestabifulldisk®ex=10p35um&title=GOES-West ABI Full Disk - 10.35 um - Band 13&time_drop=show 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just need that warm layer bs out of here and this could be a memorable one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Looks like Niagra falls region is where I’ll be staying. Can’t leave until tomorrow morning, about a 6 hour drive, but hopefully I can beat out the snow. Need to grab new tires and get an oil change and then we’re out. Really hoping to pull 18+, it’ll be close I think. I’m just as excited for the few hours of dumpage from that deform band before it lifts out. I told myself During the summer that I would chase towards the lakes this winter, didn’t realize it would be a synoptic event. Question, what kind of snow cover does region currently have? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 14 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: One last reference to the volcano, only because I don't think the banter thread is going to get a lot of action and this is time sensitive... ...check this out.. https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/basicLooper.pl?category=goeswestabifulldisk®ex=10p35um&title=GOES-West ABI Full Disk - 10.35 um - Band 13&time_drop=show That is insane. seems like this should be a bigger story globally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 hour ago, Buckeyes_Suck said: Warning hoisted for 12-18 in WNY Enjoy I had plenty of those in my lifetime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, Heisy said: Looks like Niagra falls region is where I’ll be staying. Can’t leave until tomorrow morning, about a 6 hour drive, but hopefully I can beat out the snow. Need to grab new tires and get an oil change and then we’re out. Really hoping to pull 18+, it’ll be close I think. I’m just as excited for the few hours of dumpage from that deform band before it lifts out. I told myself During the summer that I would chase towards the lakes this winter, didn’t realize it would be a synoptic event. Question, what kind of snow cover does region currently have? Closer to lake ontario shore the more. Getting so lake snow in roc at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, Heisy said: Looks like Niagra falls region is where I’ll be staying. Can’t leave until tomorrow morning, about a 6 hour drive, but hopefully I can beat out the snow. Need to grab new tires and get an oil change and then we’re out. Really hoping to pull 18+, it’ll be close I think. I’m just as excited for the few hours of dumpage from that deform band before it lifts out. I told myself During the summer that I would chase towards the lakes this winter, didn’t realize it would be a synoptic event. Question, what kind of snow cover does region currently have? ATM the Niagara frontier has anywhere from bare ground to a few, crunchy inches. This will change substantially around midnight Monday am to the midday Monday when the commahead is expected to park itself at the pivot point and deliver hours of heavy snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 9 minutes ago, Buckeyes_Suck said: That is insane. seems like this should be a bigger story globally. Hopefully someone can grab a GIF of nfsc noaa ir loop posted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 9 minutes ago, Heisy said: Looks like Niagra falls region is where I’ll be staying. Can’t leave until tomorrow morning, about a 6 hour drive, but hopefully I can beat out the snow. Need to grab new tires and get an oil change and then we’re out. Really hoping to pull 18+, it’ll be close I think. I’m just as excited for the few hours of dumpage from that deform band before it lifts out. I told myself During the summer that I would chase towards the lakes this winter, didn’t realize it would be a synoptic event. Question, what kind of snow cover does region currently have? Seems like the best area to be. If the deformation band hooks up with a little enhancement you could see some really special rates. 2”/hour. Which is great for synoptic. I doubt you’ll have any difficulties finding hotels so if need be you could move a little east. West is problematic due to the border. But I really don’t see this going any further west. Take lots of pics and keep us updated. Have fun bro! That’s awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Anyone have a 10:1 6z euro clown map? I see Tennessee gets wrecked by it. What a season in the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 As Tim pointed out. Some of the 6z suite is showing a colder column. I think some of this is dynamic cooling on the NW quadrant. Right over WNY. Buffalo and Rochester say, ‘what sleet’. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Anyone have a 10:1 6z euro clown map? I see Tennessee gets wrecked by it. What a season in the south Posted it last page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Really though the placement of the low moving ne to bmg then northern vt is the perfect track for buf roc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 47 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: EURO ticked colder. Looks like a good run for most of us - Toronto, Buffalo, Rochester... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 19 minutes ago, Heisy said: Looks like Niagra falls region is where I’ll be staying. Can’t leave until tomorrow morning, about a 6 hour drive, but hopefully I can beat out the snow. Need to grab new tires and get an oil change and then we’re out. Really hoping to pull 18+, it’ll be close I think. I’m just as excited for the few hours of dumpage from that deform band before it lifts out. I told myself During the summer that I would chase towards the lakes this winter, didn’t realize it would be a synoptic event. Question, what kind of snow cover does region currently have? Good call! Like Dave said, you can shoot east easily if the heaviest stuff sets up closer to Rochester. Not sure how familiar you are with the area…Besides the obvious attraction at Niagara Falls, Lewiston is a great spot to visit just 10 minutes or so away. Quaint village with coffee house/brewery and a place called Artpark with trails along the Niagara River gorge. If you want room to spread out and walk around or get a snowstorm experience along the shore of Lake Ontario, head to Wilson Tuscorara State Park, 15-20 minutes from NF. If you get there while it’s clear on Sunday you can see the Toronto skyline (usually) across the lake. Fantastic brewery in Wilson too. Happy chasing!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 6 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Posted it last page I shouldve specified NYS, my bad. The more localized was "dynamic ratio" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 14 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: As Tim pointed out. Some of the 6z suite is showing a colder column. I think some of this is dynamic cooling on the NW quadrant. Right over WNY. Buffalo and Rochester say, ‘what sleet’. except, the warm air is above 850 as well. H7 would be sleet in roch or very close to it with -3. At the very least it would cut down ratios big time with heavy riming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, tombo82685 said: except, the warm air is above 850 as well. H7 would be sleet in roch or very close to it with -3. At the very least it would cut down ratios big time with heavy riming can also see the warm nose inbetween those layers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: except, the warm air is above 850 as well. H7 would be sleet in roch or very close to it with -3. At the very least it would cut down ratios big time with heavy riming I find it a little odd this layer remains the same temp from the coast to the lakes without dropping off at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Still time for a SE tick or 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 9 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: I find it a little odd this layer remains the same temp from the coast to the lakes without dropping off at all. Look at your low level jet, it's a straight firehose aloft due to the severe neg tilt. It's pulling all that warm air inland aloft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Long range hrrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, tim123 said: Long range hrrr Obviously not the best model and range but there would be plenty more after. minimal mixing on that run as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 euro has me at 9 in ohio but the hrrrr gives me 0 from the entire storm......i hate these differences lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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