tim123 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Disagree.36 hours separate the two. Big difference. True. Hope we can get a tic south east say 50 miles with that dry slot and warming aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 lol near the ohio river now on NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 What a mess nam is. Precip schemes don't even make sence. Showing plain rain with Temps in 20s in nw Pennsylvania. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 i go from 0 to 7 inches in one frame lol these models..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, tim123 said: What a mess nam is. Precip schemes don't even make sence. Showing plain rain with Temps in 20s in nw Pennsylvania. Lol Thinking the same thing! Lol... This model can't be taken seriously sometimes. It has heavy sleet in CNY even though we are north of the 540. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 And it has the Low jumping all over the Mid Atlantic. Haha.... trying to find where it puts the low next is like playing Where's Waldo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I agree with Syrmax. I call total BS on the NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Its so confused. Shows rain in 20s when it can delineate rain and freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 5 hours ago, PerintonMan said: The low barely moved, but the dry slot/mix zone just exploded. What gives? Typical sounding of dry slotting.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Warnings are up. 8 to 18 inches lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Did you pay a recent visit to Cazenovia @TugHillMatt? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Basically 8 inches far eastern wayne to 18 in niagara. Watches still up east of this area in Cayuga County east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 BUF keeps its area all snow but acknowledged the NAM. BGM hitting the mix hard, but seemed to reiterate east of 81, while also extending the 8 to 12 inches across more of Western Onondaga county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Nam just looks odd as hell. 979 mb low near bmg and we mix all way back to buffalo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 4 minutes ago, tim123 said: Nam just looks odd as hell. 979 mb low near bmg and we mix all way back to buffalo? Mid levels just continue to warm further west on each successive run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Icon looks a tic se Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Rgem cam in a touch se and colder. Big hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 A tic se on 06 gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 4 minutes ago, tim123 said: A tic se on 06 gfs. Definitely. And I know it’s not a Meso model but it seems to show that dry slotting is more of an issue for eastern areas than P type with that track. RGEM was a smidge better too. Still an entire day of tracking ahead of a very complex situation. Should be fun! -6 in Skaneateles right now! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I think its a issue with meso models not tightening up a sub 980 low. Odd to have such low pressure and have so much warm air alof all around it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Rgem gem and gfs collapse column much quicker 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Some nice streamers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 06Z GEFS shifted considerably east... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Rap se almost no mixing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 man these mesoscale models out this far really screw ohio they must know something.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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