TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 16 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Toronto folk. They usually post in the great lake section but I think their climo is closer to ours, at least geographically. I mean they are an hour drive from Buffalo. They are more than welcome to post here! 2 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said: Thank you. Yes, and this storm looks to impact Toronto, Buffalo, and Rochester much more than Detroit or Chicago. It's an unusual set up, that's for sure. Our subforum's more fun anyways. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: GEM takes it Harrisburg to just east of Binghamton. Where you seeing this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, tim123 said: Where you seeing this? I can read the future. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 9 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: It actually looked quite a bit better for the Cuse and Binghamton than the rgem did on the 12Z runs. per bufweather track of gem was mdt to just east of bgm, inline with rgem track. Qpf amounts will differ most likely. but track basically the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, tim123 said: Where you seeing this? enviro canada site. black and white maps come out fast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 @tim123 https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: HiREZ GFS looks decent. For western areas especially. It’s not showing a sleet fest. Rain? Really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 GFS is maybe a touch colder. So far the NAM was the only total spaz. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Tim, make sure to change it to 00Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Looks to keep it all snow? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: enviro canada site. black and white maps come out fast also gem collaboration maps too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Looks to keep it all snow? Big hit for most 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 hours ago, DeltaT13 said: I’ve never seen Toronto get crushed so if it’s going to somewhat miss me I’d love to see them score a big one. It’s takes a really wild setup for that to happen with a huge return interval. I think the last time we got truly crushed, like 15"+ was January 2-3, 1999. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Interesting. That colder region around Buffalo is dynamic cooling? Coincides with the heavy band. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Looks to keep it all snow? per that yea, but I would not trust global resolutions, won't pick up small layers abv freezing like mesos. But we are still outside of useful range. So just pound a few beers and wait until sunday 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Whatever falls in terms of precip type some good model consensus on 1.5-2" of frozen QPF for most of WNY. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I can read the future. I saw it too. OTOH I'm the Triple Vaxxed Superspreader Dancing Queen. Yes, its Friday night in downtown SizzleCuse. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Rain? Really? All this time spent tracking this thing thinking it was "the one" only to find out that... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Lot of possibilities. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, Syrmax said: I saw it too. OTOH I'm the Triple Vaxxed Dancing Queen. Yes, its Friday night in downtown SizzleCuse. I'm going to miss so many model runs at the Bills game tomorrow, especially if they win we're going out all night. How will I get my model fix? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Nope. SLEET for the Sizzlesaunastupidcuse. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMikeWx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, tombo82685 said: per that yea, but I would not trust global resolutions, won't pick up small layers abv freezing like mesos. But we are still outside of useful range. So just pound a few beers and wait until sunday 12z Still hope for us Tombo... maybe come up to the hill Monday Whole lotta kutchie 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I like the dot of 2 inch precip in monroe. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 The 700’s stay real cold. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Besides my curse, why are the models insisting on sleet specifically over this stupid city? The Southerly downsloping/warming having that much of a localized impact...again? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 After lake effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, CoolMikeWx said: Still hope for us Tombo... maybe come up to the hill Monday Whole lotta kutchie Hahaha, elevation won't help with IP which is what I think will happen unless we get some ticks southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, CoolMikeWx said: Still hope for us Tombo... maybe come up to the hill Monday Whole lotta kutchie Oh Jesus. Don’t let Matt see this 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, rochesterdave said: The 700’s stay real cold. Crazy. Thats actually quite warm for 700mb lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Nope. SLEET for the Sizzlesaunastupidcuse. My analysis 1 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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