rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, PerintonMan said: The low barely moved, but the dry slot/mix zone just exploded. What gives? Like Wolfie posted above, the upper level low moved NW 200 miles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, PerintonMan said: The low barely moved, but the dry slot/mix zone just exploded. What gives? See my post a few posts up... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Icon nudged a little NW but not the disaster the NAM was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Rgem looks better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 RGEM was a slight improvement over 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Rgem didn't budge. Still looks good for you WNY guys. Garbage for I 81 and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Lake snow firing up now. Snowing nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 HiREZ GFS looks decent. For western areas especially. It’s not showing a sleet fest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 NAM almost wanted to do a full phase with the northern stream this run and send the low over Jamestown. Those h5 and h7 maps make me want to barf. I'd say CNY fate is nearly sealed at this point barring a last min big swing E. Unbelievable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I need this to be safe space tonight. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Icon nudged a little NW but not the disaster the NAM was. Not a disaster but it takes the money band almost entirely into Canada. I think getting into that band is a requirement for 12"+ from this unless you end up in a backside lake band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said: Especially when all the Canadians come out from hiding... Darth Bond over Toronto??? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 10 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Obviously a terrible run. But it’s the NAM and we have 48 hours to revert or salvage something. I’ll be waiting on the GFS that has been pretty solid for days now to see if the NAM truly sniffed out a ‘game changer’ or just the NAM being the NAM. I can't count the number of times back in the day an off hour NAM run a couple days before a coastal would suck me back into a storm by a rotting a def. band over me, while all other guidance (and by that measure, all training, knowledge, and good sense) had it well south and east of me. Right now, some weenie 100 miles north of Toronto is experiencing the same thing. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 52 minutes ago, 96blizz said: You can’t make this shit up. Lol DEARTH band. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 It's counting sleet as snow.. Eventually it changes over.. I have no idea why it counts it for WNY but not CNY lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: It's counting sleet as snow.. Eventually it changes over.. I have no idea why it counts it for WNY but not CNY lol If that huge area...like a 200 mile wide band from PA to Northern NY is Sleet...that would be unreal. Seems quite unrealistic, really. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: It's counting sleet as snow.. Eventually it changes over.. I have no idea why it counts it for WNY but not CNY lol Follows the 540 line. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Give me 4-6” front end thump follow by 2-3” of pack saving sleet and another 4-6” of fresh powder on top from the backside and I’d be through the moon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 18 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Icon nudged a little NW but not the disaster the NAM was. Based on the huge reduction in snow amounts on the Icon's snow map for Central NY, it's sleet here. This is toast for us here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 We lost a couple when the 0Z Nam came out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Devin blew up my phone so hard when that NAM came out. I was watching a movie with wife, shes like whose blowing up your phone like that? I had to tell her it wasn't my side piece, but rather a guy from the weather forum. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 A question I have for one of the Mets or anyone more knowledgeable than me… why do the models seem to be hinting at mixing under the “deformation band” ? I know that there’s a warm layer around 850 mb causing the mixing but isn’t the deformation zone usually where you find dynamic cooling and the best snow growth thus snowfall rates? Just don’t ever recall seeing a modeled deformation band be all sleet like this before while N and S of the band remains snow according to these algorithms. Is it because of the strong SE flow right off the Atlantic “funneling” or focusing the warm air into that area because that’s where the flow is strongest? Just a very unique situation I can’t ever recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Devin blew up my phone so hard when that NAM came out. I was watching a movie with wife, shes like whose blowing up your phone like that? I had to tell her it wasn't my side piece, but rather a guy from the weather forum. Did you call me your weather “weenie” at least? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I fell like this setup has happened before in WNY. Sometime in the 2011 12 13's? Big synoptic storm predicted around 18" right up to the start of the event. Ended up being a sleet bomb surprise killed the snowfall, had 3-4" of just solid sleet ice pellets, heavy has hell and maybe 2" of snow on top. NAM and even RGEM are throwing a lot of warmer air back our way, still looks to hold snow in WNY but another blip adding to this storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: A question I have for one of the Mets or anyone more knowledgeable than me… why do the models seem to be hinting at mixing under the “deformation band” ? I know that there’s a warm layer around 850 mb causing the mixing but isn’t the deformation zone usually where you find dynamic cooling and the best snow growth this snowfall rates? Just don’t ever recall seeing a modeled deformation band be all sleet like this before while N and S of the band remains snow according to these algorithms. Is it because of the strong SE flow right off the Atlantic “funneling” or focusing the warm air into that area because that’s where the flow is strongest? Just a very unique situation I can’t ever recall. my guess would be, kind of what you're saying, the dynamics are bringing the warmer aloft downward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Tropical tidbits looks good with band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: A question I have for one of the Mets or anyone more knowledgeable than me… why do the models seem to be hinting at mixing under the “deformation band” ? I know that there’s a warm layer around 850 mb causing the mixing but isn’t the deformation zone usually where you find dynamic cooling and the best snow growth this snowfall rates? Just don’t ever recall seeing a modeled deformation band be all sleet like this before while N and S of the band remains snow according to these algorithms. Is it because of the strong SE flow right off the Atlantic “funneling” or focusing the warm air into that area because that’s where the flow is strongest? Just a very unique situation I can’t ever recall. Well, there's a couple factors: 1) Pretty much, right on. The raging Southeasterly flow. This isn't a "Nor'easter" with cold air being pulled in for that dynamic cooling. 2) My presence. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Give me 4-6” front end thump follow by 2-3” of pack saving sleet and another 4-6” of fresh powder on top from the backside and I’d be through the moon. That’s the recipe for a bulletproof pack, especially with the Arctic hounds apparently being ready to frolic in the region a week from now. Who am I kidding…we’ll probably see a highly anomalous cutter after a monster storm scoots harmlessly out to sea…and an arctic blast finds a way to evacuate just in time for the apps runner. Oh wait. Am I living in a time loop? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 from what I'm seeing at h5, can't see the gfs going east this run, might tick nw again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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