Owensnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Rgem FTW? Watch it go NW lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Rgem FTW? RGEM's been pretty good over last 2-3 years. NAM's really gone down hill with its performance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 12 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Especially when all the Canadians come out from hiding... Right? Wut up with that? I'm still hanging onto the GEFS cuz muh, ensembles is the faux brainy thing. And I am very faux. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Look at where the Low ends up. Epic journey. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Well..looks like we might have to wait longer to get a synoptic snowfall of greater than 2 inches....especially if the rest of the models follow suit. But, turning ugly so quickly. Unreal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Damn…. Congrats CLE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 This isn’t a bad look. High ratio would pile up under a lake enhanced decaying deformation band. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 15, 2022 Author Share Posted January 15, 2022 I'll wait for tomorrow's 12z and 00z models before I accept anything as inevitable Part of our mutual obsession is going from extreme disappointment to sudden jubilation 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, 96blizz said: This isn’t a bad look. High ratio would pile up under a lake enhanced decaying deformation band. Surrendering to putting hope on a decaying defo. band? That puts the term "death band" in a whole different context... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Drew Carey wrecked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I really feel like the best shot many to the East have is that backside. Almost all models have it. Still time… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: Surrendering to putting hope on a decaying defo. band? That puts the term "death band" in a whole different context... Hey, it’s better than the wind driven rain many are likely to see!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3k with a decent front end before dry slotting/light mix..But it's marginal at best lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 HUGE Shift from 18Z to 0Z... Results of sampling? Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3k not as far west but obviously in its “long range”. More precip to fall after this QPF map that ends at hr 60. What a gigantic dryslot too. Yikes… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Christ. Lol. It’s one run but wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Western snow shield jumped 125 miles! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 This is not unsurprising. The LP center could have gone left or right of the spine. Least resistance is left, and the NAM did that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, rochesterdave said: Western snow shield jumped 125 miles! Even though the Low didn't move anymore west. Why such a ridiculous dry slot in NY? Is there somebody behind the controls playing with the paintbrush and eraser tools? 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Even though the Low didn't move anymore west. Why such a ridiculous dry slot in NY? Is there somebody behind the controls playing with the paintbrush and eraser tools? Clearly the Canadians hacked the weather models tonight. It’s the only logical reason for what we’re seeing. Well done Canada. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Dave's H7 12z vs 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 If someone who knows the models better than me can please post something immediately about the NAM being terrible past 24 hours I would really appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 On 1/12/2022 at 10:38 PM, SouthBuffaloSteve said: I still think we could see this thing slide as far as 2 weenies east or west at this point. Expecting the wild swing one way or another here soon to get everybody all up in a tizzy. This is going to be fun. nailed it... i was really thinking it was gonna be to the east, but history dictates weenies tend to drift west. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I’ve missed a few pages here so maybe someone mentioned this but I noticed something interesting tonight. A mere 36 hours ago this looked like a double phase with that nice little secondary kicker. By tonight there appears to be another obvious shortwave just upstream of the first kicker which seems to be creating a deeper and more negatively tilted phase. That is likely what is moving everything so far west. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Dave's H7 12z vs 0z From Philly to Rochester. Un-freaking-believable. You gotta just laugh. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 27 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Surrendering to putting hope on a decaying defo. band? That puts the term "death band" in a whole different context... Thin ice but I recognize context. But I am not a brainless Twitter censor...you can thank me later. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 24 minutes ago, 96blizz said: Hey, it’s better than the wind driven rain many are likely to see!! True. But then again, those tend to fall apart quickly. So unreliable. The only thing we have going for us, once again, is those lakes to help us out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: I’ve missed a few pages here so maybe someone mentioned this but I noticed something interesting tonight. A mere 36 hours ago this looked like a double phase with that nice little secondary kicker. By tonight there appears to be another obvious shortwave just upstream of the first kicker which seems to be creating a a deeper and more negatively tilted phase. That is likely what is moving everything so far west. You didn't miss much. It's mostly me moaning about how the NAM ruins my life....oh, and the Canadians waking up from hibernation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Obviously a terrible run. But it’s the NAM and we have 48 hours to revert or salvage something. I’ll be waiting on the GFS that has been pretty solid for days now to see if the NAM truly sniffed out a ‘game changer’ or just the NAM being the NAM. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 21 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Western snow shield jumped 125 miles! The low barely moved, but the dry slot/mix zone just exploded. What gives? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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