WxWatcher007 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said: About time...Toronto almost never hits the jackpot, and we hardly ever get lake effect snows. Still hoping Buffalo and Rochester are big winners too. Best of luck. What’s your seasonal average out there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: I question that show shield being as expansive as the Euro is showing it. This look is what gives the nice widespread snow amounts for all of PA and NY. I would almost split that snow shield in half and the southern/eastern half would be a sleet, mix, etc... Bingo, it’s missing warm layers. I would bet there is more sleet than shown here thus cutting down totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I’m fully expecting sleet even being near Buffalo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 6 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: I’m fully expecting sleet even being near Buffalo. I could see sleet making up to Buffalo while Niagara Falls stays all snow.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owensnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 7 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: I’m fully expecting sleet even being near Buffalo. You think the NW camp is starting? I am in Kingsville, ON. Euro currently shows 3 inches or so here (18Z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Infamous 50 mile NW jog incoming on all the 0z model suites. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 This morning the plan was Rochester, but now I'm thinking of headed towards Niagra Falls. Though, if I see more NW ticks I'll just stay home. Really want to get into that deformation/ccb zone as long as possible. Reminds me when I chased to Lewisburg pa last year for the Dec storm. I got mix/dry slotted during the height while just north of me saw 2 feet. Well see what happens 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I know tombo land must be below zero, sitting at 1.2° here, looks like we'll catch a back to back negative.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 34 minutes ago, ayuud11 said: Infamous 50 mile NW jog incoming on all the 0z model suites. Don't you ____ing dare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Next two runs will either provide a surprise or two, or solidify the sleetfest/slotfest for CNY,....at least....kicker wave will be fully sampled. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Fingers crossed that we get into that deformation zone in Toronto 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owensnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, blizzardof96 said: Fingers crossed that we get into that deformation zone in Toronto Thoughts on NW Camp? I am near Leamington, ON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 7 minutes ago, blizzardof96 said: Fingers crossed that we get into that deformation zone in Toronto Think you are looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, Owensnow said: Thoughts on NW Camp? I am near Leamington, ON Tough to say at this point. Small changes in the strength/positioning of the plains vort is resulting in practical changes to the low track. This alters the position of the deformation zone. Recent runs have been trending a bit further south/stronger with the plains vort... leading to more phasing with our cutoff low. Under this scenario (eg 18z ECMWF), the heaviest snow band tracks a bit further NW through GTA etc. Another plausible scenario is something like the 18z NAM which is a bit less phased with the low track further east. Future runs (starting with 0z tonight) should help clarify things and build consensus... hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 25 minutes ago, PerintonMan said: Don't you ____ing dare. You can feel it coming…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: I thought you guys said its going to go further SE last minute? I've been in WNY for a long time and I'd say 80% of Miller As always go further north then modeled the last 1-2 days before impact. Miller Bs have a greater tendency to go further SE. Well it’s not like it has already happened. This storm could go 50-75 miles further East as moves up the coast (plus we are still 48 hours out). I watched nor’easters do weird shit real time over the years. I think there is wiggle room with this anomalous setup and so much convection. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I’ve never seen Toronto get crushed so if it’s going to somewhat miss me I’d love to see them score a big one. It’s takes a really wild setup for that to happen with a huge return interval. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 8 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: I’ve never seen Toronto get crushed so if it’s going to somewhat miss me I’d love to see them score a big one. It’s takes a really wild setup for that to happen with a huge return interval. For Toronto, since 1855: Number of 24"+ events 0 Number of 20"+ events 4 Number of 18"+ events 7 Number of 15"+ events 21 Number of 12"+ events 46 % chance of seeing a 12"+ snowstorm in a snowfall season 28% 15"+ 13% 18"+ 4% 20"+ 2.5% 24"+ RARE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 4 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: I’ve never seen Toronto get crushed so if it’s going to somewhat miss me I’d love to see them score a big one. It’s takes a really wild setup for that to happen with a huge return interval. 18z Euro did, looks like NAM is NW again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 13 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: You can feel it coming…. Especially when all the Canadians come out from hiding... 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 NAM, yuck. Well, we get what we get. Go Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owensnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 15 minutes ago, blizzardof96 said: Tough to say at this point. Small changes in the strength/positioning of the plains vort is resulting in practical changes to the low track. This alters the position of the deformation zone. Recent runs have been trending a bit further south/stronger with the plains vort... leading to more phasing with our cutoff low. Under this scenario (eg 18z ECMWF), the heaviest snow band tracks a bit further NW through GTA etc. Another plausible scenario is something like the 18z NAM which is a bit less phased with the low track further east. Future runs (starting with 0z tonight) should help clarify things and build consensus... hopefully. Well said, Are there any older model runs that previously had shown a more phased NW solution? Sometimes I find the models get it long range but as things get closer, yet still outside of 48 hours, they revert back to the original runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owensnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Especially when all the Canadians come out from hiding... LOL thanks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Lol..we don't even start as snow on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owensnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: Lol..we don't even start as snow on the NAM Sampled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Can see the differences in the energy over the plains. 0z NAM (left) vs 18z NAM (right). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Rgem FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 What a disaster. Just sickening. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I can't believe with a Low over Maryland, we have such an ugly synoptic setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 You can’t make this shit up. Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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