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Widespread Snow Potential January 16th to January 18th


sferic
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10 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:
Models continue to indicate a warm nose aloft making it at
least to the Poconos and Catskills. Should this pan out, those
areas would see snow, changing to a wintry mix Monday morning,
then back to snow on the backside of the system late in the day.
Some model guidance (such as the 12Z NAM) actually has this
warm nose making it very far west (even to some areas west of
I-81). Right now considering this the outlier, but this will
have to be watched closely. Another area of uncertainty is the
fact that much of the area east of I-81 (except the higher
elevations of the Catskills and Poconos) will see downsloping
winds, therefore potentially lowering amounts across those
areas.

In terms of snow amounts, right now expecting a swath of 8-12
inches for parts of the Finger Lakes (with higher amounts west
of our forecast area), with 6-8 inches for areas just west of
I-81. Areas east of I-81 are currently forecasted to see 4-6
inches of snow, with some 6-8 inch amounts for the higher
elevations of the Catskills and Poconos. However, confidence in
these amounts is still quite low due to the above mentioned
factors. A mix of sleet and freezing rain will be possible at
times for areas south of I-88 and east of I-81 as well.

So what this is telling me basically is that KBGM ripped and read this board for the past day. ;)

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1 hour ago, rochesterdave said:

I think we are seeing the mixing issue because we lack a strong Canadian HP that is typically present with these. Our HP slides off the coast and actually aids in bringing in maritime air. Hopefully the east trends kick in soon. 0z might be scary though- right at that 48 hour where traditionally the west lean is strongest. It’s all superstition of course, but I’ll bet they start ticking back tomorrow. 
We’re already losing our eastern players. And it’s knock, knock, knocking on Monroe county. 
I still feel good. 
Sleet is just one of those limiting factors we gotta contend with. It’s always something. 
But the track is great. It’s strengthening as it climbs. I still say Syracuse and west sees a banger of a storm!!

Appreciate the encouraging tone. Doubtful here that this synoptic wasteland of Syracuse gets a good storm. The only thing ever guaranteed here is WARM. Just like what's going to mess it up here while it snows all around.

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6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I thought you guys said its going to go further SE last minute? I've been in WNY for a long time and I'd say 80% of Miller As always go further north then modeled the last 1-2 days before impact. Miller Bs have a greater tendency to go further SE.

I think we still end up being the bullseye. 

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13 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I thought you guys said its going to go further SE last minute? I've been in WNY for a long time and I'd say 80% of Miller As always go further north then modeled the last 1-2 days before impact. Miller Bs have a greater tendency to go further SE.

I think it ticks east at the last minute. Starting tomorrow. Just something I’ve noticed.

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