wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Binghamton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I'll play. ALY 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Really hope we get some big modeling changes in the next 36 hrs. This has been too consistent for too long. I need chaos! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Really hope we get some big modeling changes in the next 36 hrs. This has been too consistent for too long. I need chaos! Be careful what you wish for lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 17 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: First map I've seen from BUF. Looks like an absolutely frigid night east of Ontario. Decided against heading west for this one, but with the pattern LEK highlighted earlier, it won't be long until it's WxWatcher Wagons West Waiting for reds along the South Shore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, vortmax said: Waiting for reds along the South Shore. Greedy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Uh oh, ice storm incoming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 12 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Really hope we get some big modeling changes in the next 36 hrs. This has been too consistent for too long. I need chaos! You got it, GFS WAY west. =/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Hmmm? Mix of Euro and climo? Big spread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Looks like it changes to heavy snow next frame, but that is pretty far NW with heaviest snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Steady decline in temps since midnight.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 The GFS is putrid for many. I should never have quit drinking a year ago… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: You got it, GFS WAY west. =/ We tried to tell ‘em Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Be careful what you wish for lol Not alot to lose. CNY esp near and east of 81 is looking highly prone for dryslotting and possible mixing/ratio issues. This is probably an advisory level event the way things stand right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2.15" of QPF over Niagara Falls 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Ehhh. It’s almost exactly the same. Precip depiction is a different. I’ll bet accumulations are similar. Who knows?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 "If" all snow it would be one of Buffalos largest synoptic storms in history 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Actually better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I like the numbers for buf to roc per nws, not sure yet about syr and my locale, I think sleet is going to be an issue. I think we ping and dry slot. The back side could match what happens in the front part of the system 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Icon actually gives me a couple more inches this run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 my bar is set at 5" anything over that I'm good with 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 GFS somewhat salvages the event with 1/2"-3/4" east of Ontario for the wrap around portion..If you look over history (Lake effect archives) Oswego county tends to do well with NW flow on the backside of systems.. Granted it looks more like wrap around then enhancement.. First part of the event is sketchy lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I'd feel better for my locale if we could get a tick or two east, but im not sure thats going to happen. This system is loaded with convection. As I mentioned to @DeltaT13 that when you have all that convection it can help intensify downstream ridging and help the system go further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 38 minutes ago, 96blizz said: The GFS is putrid for many. I should never have quit drinking a year ago… Ugh... toss it. Toss it quick. Put a mask on first then wash your hands Ugh. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Models continue to indicate a warm nose aloft making it at least to the Poconos and Catskills. Should this pan out, those areas would see snow, changing to a wintry mix Monday morning, then back to snow on the backside of the system late in the day. Some model guidance (such as the 12Z NAM) actually has this warm nose making it very far west (even to some areas west of I-81). Right now considering this the outlier, but this will have to be watched closely. Another area of uncertainty is the fact that much of the area east of I-81 (except the higher elevations of the Catskills and Poconos) will see downsloping winds, therefore potentially lowering amounts across those areas. In terms of snow amounts, right now expecting a swath of 8-12 inches for parts of the Finger Lakes (with higher amounts west of our forecast area), with 6-8 inches for areas just west of I-81. Areas east of I-81 are currently forecasted to see 4-6 inches of snow, with some 6-8 inch amounts for the higher elevations of the Catskills and Poconos. However, confidence in these amounts is still quite low due to the above mentioned factors. A mix of sleet and freezing rain will be possible at times for areas south of I-88 and east of I-81 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 34 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: Icon actually gives me a couple more inches this run. ICON is the best model ever. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I think we are seeing the mixing issue because we lack a strong Canadian HP that is typically present with these. Our HP slides off the coast and actually aids in bringing in maritime air. Hopefully the east trends kick in soon. 0z might be scary though- right at that 48 hour where traditionally the west lean is strongest. It’s all superstition of course, but I’ll bet they start ticking back tomorrow. We’re already losing our eastern players. And it’s knock, knock, knocking on Monroe county. I still feel good. Sleet is just one of those limiting factors we gotta contend with. It’s always something. But the track is great. It’s strengthening as it climbs. I still say Syracuse and west sees a banger of a storm!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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