Thinksnow18 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Most likely this is a not yet slugger but is it possible they issue a warning by tomorrow am or the afternoon shift if things stay the same? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 We'll see how the models play out over the next few runs but the globals indicate a decent hit for CNY and a major one for WNY. ENY on the fence. Given mid/upper level tracks I'm reasonably confident in 8-12" for SYR. We may need some lake assist on the backside to reach 12" though. NAM and RDPS could be onto something with problems with mid level warming about HR72 but not sure i'd get too worked up about that yet. They're still not in their wheelhouse. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 14 minutes ago, PerintonMan said: Oof. Deformation band blasts through and into Canada and it looks like ROC dry-slots and then relies on a good and long backside hit -- not what you want to count on. We won’t know where the deformation zone sets up until it’s happening. Still looks great for all of WNY in my opinion. Perinton should do great! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Real cool satellite loop today (as Tim has linked a few times) showing the lake effect south of Ontario with cooling cloud tops. Also though, check out the downslope shadowing South of the Tughill. That is really pronounced!https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-LakeOntario-13-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=data 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sub_Zero Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Sitting at -1f at the moment up here, looking forward to a good dumping on Monday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaistDeepSnow Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Sub_Zero said: Sitting at -1f at the moment up here, looking forward to a good dumping on Monday. Fitting name there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 For the haters. Lol. 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, rochesterdave said: For the haters. Lol. How dare you!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: For the haters. Lol. I embrace this and commend you on the good work. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 23 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Real cool satellite loop today (as Tim has linked a few times) showing the lake effect south of Ontario with cooling cloud tops. Also though, check out the downslope shadowing South of the Tughill. That is really pronounced!https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-LakeOntario-13-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=data Very cool! We've had snow here all afternoon, mood flakes to start but nice squall ongoing for the last 30 minutes or so. Nice whitening of everything at least as the frigid air moves in. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 hour ago, tim123 said: Looks nice out Hmm, looks like about SIX going on eight new inches, Tim? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Not getting anything in Ontario. Really... Lol Although models have precip mostly overnight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Inches and inches of drysloping sunshine here. Just looking at radar...geesh, Niagara county has had a good winter compared to so many. Seems like the snowbelt this year (secondary to Virginia and Tennessee). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 T+240 (h500 and surface) looks NICE on 12z Euro.... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 In and out of light to moderate puff balls. About half inch down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 hour ago, vortmax said: I'd take 7" here in Toronto. Hopefully it doesn't shift anymore southeast. Wow for Buffalo/Niagara though.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 42 minutes ago, vortmax said: Not getting anything in Ontario. Really... Lol Although models have precip mostly overnight. Overnight tonight into tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, tim123 said: Overnight tonight into tomorrow. Gotta be honest I’m surprised I’m receiving the snow I am currently from Lake Ontario. This gives me real optimism that the numbers the models are currently showing can be achieved with the help of the lake during and after the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 9 minutes ago, tim123 said: Overnight tonight into tomorrow. We'll see. Haven't had much luck with LE this season here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 NAM is east believe it or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Well that sucks lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Not sure how legit this is but funny nonetheless lol We go from 23° to 36° in 3 hrs and back into the 20s 3hours later lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Looks good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 And so the SE shift begins... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 13 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Well that sucks lol Enjoy the Torch...its the only one you got! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 The latest model runs of the 12Z GFS, Canadian and NAM along with the old 00Z ECMWF are all in good agreement with the track of the low from the Southeast States Sunday up through the Catskills and Upper Hudson Valley and into northern New England. The slight shift from 00Z guidance was a track to the west...one that still leaves our region with snow, but could begin to introduce some sleet mixing in across the Upper Genesee Valley and Finger lakes region early Monday. Will leave the forecast as all snow as slight differences in model run to run is expected, though if they do continue this westward trend sleet will become more of a concern along our eastern zones. A surface low will track from near Georgia Sunday morning, inland up the eastern spine of the Appalachian Mountains. This storm will tap into Atlantic moisture, aiding in falling snow to over come an initial very dry lower layer...and begin to produce light snow near the State line early Sunday evening. Sunday Night the surface low will track to southern PA, keeping an inland route with a surface high anchored off the New England coastline. Snow will spread from south to north across our region becoming heavier across western zones Sunday Night where a deformation band of snow will form. Snow under this deformation band will yield snowfall rates of at least an inch per hour, with the heavy snow then tracking towards Canada and the Saint Lawrence Valley Monday. Initial snowfall ratios will be near a 10:1, possibly sub 10:1 across eastern zones where warmer air may sneak into the region. As the surface low tracks by to our north and deeper colder air pushes back into our region, snow ratios will dramatically increase to 20:1 and higher with lake effect snow then falling south of lakes Erie and Ontario later Monday and Monday Night. While blowing snow initially will be minimal, after the surface low tracks by and the push of colder northerly flow commences blowing snow will begin to impact our region. Northerly winds gusting up to 30 to 35 mph off Lake Ontario will lower visibility a long the southern shore counties. Temperatures Sunday and Monday will generally remain in the mid to upper 20s. Lows at night will drop back into the upper teens, to single digits east of Lake Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: The latest model runs of the 12Z GFS, Canadian and NAM along with the old 00Z ECMWF are all in good agreement with the track of the low from the Southeast States Sunday up through the Catskills and Upper Hudson Valley and into northern New England. The slight shift from 00Z guidance was a track to the west...one that still leaves our region with snow, but could begin to introduce some sleet mixing in across the Upper Genesee Valley and Finger lakes region early Monday. Will leave the forecast as all snow as slight differences in model run to run is expected, though if they do continue this westward trend sleet will become more of a concern along our eastern zones. A surface low will track from near Georgia Sunday morning, inland up the eastern spine of the Appalachian Mountains. This storm will tap into Atlantic moisture, aiding in falling snow to over come an initial very dry lower layer...and begin to produce light snow near the State line early Sunday evening. Sunday Night the surface low will track to southern PA, keeping an inland route with a surface high anchored off the New England coastline. Snow will spread from south to north across our region becoming heavier across western zones Sunday Night where a deformation band of snow will form. Snow under this deformation band will yield snowfall rates of at least an inch per hour, with the heavy snow then tracking towards Canada and the Saint Lawrence Valley Monday. Initial snowfall ratios will be near a 10:1, possibly sub 10:1 across eastern zones where warmer air may sneak into the region. As the surface low tracks by to our north and deeper colder air pushes back into our region, snow ratios will dramatically increase to 20:1 and higher with lake effect snow then falling south of lakes Erie and Ontario later Monday and Monday Night. While blowing snow initially will be minimal, after the surface low tracks by and the push of colder northerly flow commences blowing snow will begin to impact our region. Northerly winds gusting up to 30 to 35 mph off Lake Ontario will lower visibility a long the southern shore counties. Temperatures Sunday and Monday will generally remain in the mid to upper 20s. Lows at night will drop back into the upper teens, to single digits east of Lake Ontario. Love this idea. As of now, for near SYR it looks like a thump to sleet to snizzle/dry and then back to high ratio snow off the lake and from the decaying deformation band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, 96blizz said: Love this idea. As of now, for near SYR it looks like a thump to sleet to snizzle/dry and then back to high ratio snow off the lake and from the decaying deformation band. Yes...my over/under for synoptics in Syracuse is 8"...12" factoring in some lake enhancement/effect into Tuesday am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 First map I've seen from BUF. Looks like an absolutely frigid night east of Ontario. Decided against heading west for this one, but with the pattern LEK highlighted earlier, it won't be long until it's WxWatcher Wagons West 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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