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Widespread Snow Potential January 16th to January 18th


sferic
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10 minutes ago, Flying MXZ said:

In the aforementioned New England thread, the Mets there were talking about how ALL the analogs were way to the east of the current models.  And all agreed that with the starting 500mb maps (or something like that) they would bet on a typical storm track.  But with all the models showing what they are, they were thinking this west track is the most likely outcome.

That was maybe the one good point made in their recent tirade of a thread.  Still finding it hard to believe that at least one of the major NWP op models doesn't go off the rails soon to add more confusion to the mix.

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12Z Euro interesting...everything looks really good for CNY but like other models, seems to have a reduced precip area passing thru CNY.  I wonder if its more attributable to the intense banding to the North and west of this feature rather than a traditional dryslot, which seems to be depicted further S&E as you can see below.  The mid/upper  levels look great...stacked low from H850 up to H500 passing just to eastern side of CNY.  The slp location at h72 also is located a tad west of where you would think it would be based on trajectory from the SE up into Canada...

12z EC Fri 66.png

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2 minutes ago, cny rider said:

How does a low follow this track?

Just doesn't seem realistic based on past experience.

 

I still think the models are struggling with the placement of the actual main slp.  Some, including GFS have had multiple closed surface contours invcty of the actual L.  So a bit of uncertainty there perhaps.  But, this 'squirrley' slp track has appeared on numerous models and runs.  So I dunno.  I'm not going to try to invent an explanation.

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