LakeEffectKing Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said: I can’t believe that we’re even discussing the possibility of any mixing with the system so far to our east. Incredible. Focus is too much on a broad LP....FOCUS on the mid level temps....this is NOT a rapidly deepening lp (at least for now, as depicted by models)...so there is not really a mechanism (dynamic cooling) to potentially overcome the warm air intruding from the Atlantic in the mid levels... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, 96blizz said: The Ukie has been extremely consistent. Will give it that. Only its 2 runs (12Z and 00Z). 12Z yesterday was way more west. All eyes on EC to see if it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, vortmax said: Only its 2 runs (12Z and 00Z). 12Z yesterday was way more west. Just looked and that was an anomaly. The 0z and 12z before it looked more like this. But it’s the Ukie, so I’m not excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 28 minutes ago, Stash said: I would think that 700mb low placement on the GFS would be ideal for the SYR area, but it keeps limiting it to the BUF-ROC corridor. This is terrible for here in ENY but we were out of it early. I can't think of too many (any?) storms that evolved like this in mid-January, so from a science perspective its interesting. yeah i haven't dug into the 12Z models (work) but the h7 and h85 low tracks look good for CNY...generically. NWP is insistent on dryslot effects though for CNY. Perhaps due to intense banding to the west which concentrates qpf? Not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I think this is a good dynamic way to look at things. You want to be near the northwest edge of the 700mb jet where the mid level lift is maximized. Anywhere within the strong speed zone is going to at considerable risk of mixing and the dryslot. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 A closed mid-level low pivoting across the Gulf Coast will begin to lift northeast late D2 as it moves over GA/SC, and then races northeast to be over NJ by the end of D3. This will be accompanied by an increasingly coupled jet structure downstream of the pivoting trough, with intense ascent through diffluence aiding in the development and then strengthening of a coastal low pressure moving northeast D2-3. The guidance has come into much better agreement with the placement of this low lifting just onshore the coast, roughly along the I-95 corridor. As this low initially develops, mid-level confluence over the Mid-Atlantic will help reinforce a wedge of high pressure down the east side of the Appalachians in a typical Cold Air Damming (CAD) setup. As the low strengthens, moisture will surge northwestward on robust 290K isentropic ascent characterized by mixing ratios of 4-6 g/kg, and a theta-e ridge blossoming into an impressive TROWAL around the low pressure center. The combination of impressive ascent and deep moisture will produce a significant to major winter storm from the Southern Appalachians through Upstate New York. For snowfall, heavy snow on D2 should be confined to the Southern Appalachians where moist upglide will encounter an atmospheric column that is only cold enough for snow in the higher terrain of NE GA, Upstate SC, and the NC mountains. WPC probabilities on D2 are 40-60% for 4+ inches as the snow does not really begin until late in the period. However, by D3, the low begins to race northward pulling ample moisture with it an spreading snowfall across much of the east coast. While the low track along I-95 will allow WAA to cause p-type to transition to rain from snow well inland, this will not be the case in the higher terrain where WPC probabilities for 6 inches are above 70% from near Asheville, NC through the Laurel Highlands of PA, and it is likely many locations will receive more than 1 foot of snow. To the east, while a changeover to sleet, freezing rain, and rain is likely creating a sharp gradient in snowfall, impressive leading WAA will likely produce several inches of snowfall within the I-95 metropolitan areas before changeover. Further to the west, an impressive deformation axis is likely to pivot from eastern KY through the eastern OH Valley and into Upstate NY, producing a high likelihood for at least 6 inches of snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: I think this is a good dynamic way to look at things. You want to be near the northwest edge of the 700mb jet where the mid level lift is maximized. Anywhere within the strong speed zone is going to at considerable risk of mixing and the dryslot. NIA is the winner then. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 14 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: Focus is too much on a broad LP....FOCUS on the mid level temps....this is NOT a rapidly deepening lp (at least for now, as depicted by models)...so there is not really a mechanism (dynamic cooling) to potentially overcome the warm air intruding from the Atlantic in the mid levels... Looked at text output for 12Z NAM....it has a warm layer at 800-850 mb (+4C) at hr 72. All other hours are subzero. 72 hr UVV is (+20.6!!) Ugh. KSYR gets 0.61" qpf up to that hr. After hr 72 another 0.43" falls for a total of 1.04". How much of that is PL? No idea but if i had to guess, if all snow this amt of qpf would be about 11-12" of snow minus a 3 hr period of PL...so i'd take off ~3" from snow totals. So maybe 8-10"? Per NAM that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Big Fluffy flakes in rochester 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, tim123 said: Big Fluffy flakes in rochester You were promised needles and plates. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 This LES might over perform like Tim has been saying! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Looking at the Ukie and trying to determine the differences. Only thing I could really find is that it doesn't seem to have that double barrel LP look to it - keeps a single (and stronger) LP the entire run (purer Miller A), keeping a narrower precip field. The others seem to transfer towards the convection just below our latitude. Question is, which scenario plays out, Miller A vs hybrid. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: This LES might over perform like Tim has been saying! Wrfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 11 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: This LES might over perform like Tim has been saying! Tim says every event is going to over perform and hits on like 5%(generous) of them. I don’t blame him though, we need more weenies in upstate. 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 19 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Looked at text output for 12Z NAM....it has a warm layer at 800-850 mb (+4C) at hr 72. All other hours are subzero. 72 hr UVV is (+20.6!!) Ugh. KSYR gets 0.61" qpf up to that hr. After hr 72 another 0.43" falls for a total of 1.04". How much of that is PL? No idea but if i had to guess, if all snow this amt of qpf would be about 11-12" of snow minus a 3 hr period of PL...so i'd take off ~3" from snow totals. So maybe 8-10"? Per NAM that is. Meh. I'm going with 4 to 8 inches of snow/sleet/graupel. Double to triple that in snowfall 30 to 50 miles to our NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I was wrong about this storm though. It’s a 1/100 type track. Still won’t believe it until I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Tim says every event is going to over perform and hits on like 5%(generous) of them. I don’t blame him though, we need more weenies in upstate. No I don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Tim says every event is going to over perform and hits on like 5%(generous) of them. I don’t blame him though, we need more weenies in upstate. I think we found the perfect candidate for snowfall measurements at ROC. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: I was wrong about this storm though. It’s a 1/100 type track. Still won’t believe it until I see it. It's absolutely ridiculous. The guys in the New England sub are definitely melting over it and the personal attacks and bickering have begun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, TugHillMatt said: I think we found the perfect candidate for snowfall measurements at ROC. Gladly. Average will be 1000 inches a year 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: It's absolutely ridiculous. The guys in the New England sub are definitely melting over it and the personal attacks and bickering have begun. Can't make it up Snow is serious business. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, tim123 said: No I don't. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, tim123 said: Gladly. Average will be 1000 inches a year Golden Avalanche Award? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, tim123 said: No I don't. I’m not going to pull up all the failed forecast my friend you definitely do. There are 50 posts of “I can see 4-8” of les fluff 1:30 ratios, I’ve seen it before.” Check ROc totals the next day 1.2”, and that’s with rocs slanted stick measuring techniques. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Can't make it up Snow is serious business. Haha...they make my melts (like today) seem pathetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Can't make it up Snow is serious business. That forum is some of the hardest core weenies i have ever seen. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: It's absolutely ridiculous. The guys in the New England sub are definitely melting over it and the personal attacks and bickering have begun. I’ll believe it when I see it snowing here with a good radar presentation. It’s just a very rare track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: I’m not going to pull up all the failed forecast my friend you definitely do. There are 50 posts of “I can see 4-8” of les fluff 1:30 ratios, I’ve seen it before.” Check ROc totals the next day 1.2”, and that’s with rocs slanted stick measuring techniques. Taught from the master. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Golden Avalanche Award? I think mt rainier had close to 1000” one year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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