wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Precipitation trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, tim123 said: Nice run 16” at KBUF through hour 92 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 7 minutes ago, 96blizz said: GFS with this track would have one heck of a backside. I sure wish this would go just 50 to 100 miles further SE..like you are thinking....but of course it has to troll us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 9 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: Are you even going to be in Lysander for this? Yup. I might have the "best chance" at seeing the "most snow" in Onondaga county. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, TugHillMatt said: I sure wish this would go just 50 to 100 miles further SE..like you are thinking....but of course it has to troll Me too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Anyone want to analyze the upper levels and for any noticeable differences? Seems the LP placement has changed a bit from 06Z. Maybe due to northern stream energy digging a bit more creating a slightly more negative tilt? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: I sure wish this would go just 50 to 100 miles further SE..like you are thinking....but of course it has to troll us. Plenty of time… The backside could surprise us too. Happened last year. We got walloped and with a track like that the globals wouldn’t see it and the mesos aren’t in range. That may be our show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, vortmax said: Anyone want to analyze the upper levels and for any noticeable differences? Seems the LP placement has changed a bit from 06Z. Maybe due to northern stream energy digging a bit more creating a slightly more negative tilt? Here’s the 700 low. Right where we want it. Hasn’t moved. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 8 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Yup. I might have the "best chance" at seeing the "most snow" in Onondaga county. I thought you were going to be in Pennsylvania this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, 96blizz said: Plenty of time… The backside could surprise us too. Happened last year. We got walloped and with a track like that the globals wouldn’t see it and the mesos aren’t in range. That may be our show. You got hit nicely. It totally skipped over this area. After the December event that pounded just to the south. Like I said yesterday, there's just been so many busts synoptically around here. it's hard to get excited...especially after seeing what the Nam and Rgem are showing. I fear the warm air is going to ruin it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: I thought you were going to be in Pennsylvania this weekend. Until Sunday Night. But, where I'm going to be looks to get more than here. lol Shall I extend? Might be a win for you guys... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Warmest frame on GFS. All snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Oops. This is warmer. Close on the 700. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I would think that 700mb low placement on the GFS would be ideal for the SYR area, but it keeps limiting it to the BUF-ROC corridor. This is terrible for here in ENY but we were out of it early. I can't think of too many (any?) storms that evolved like this in mid-January, so from a science perspective its interesting. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Warmest frame on GFS. All snow Yes, but like I said, globals will not be able to see warm layers properly due to lower resolution unlike meso models. But I wouldn’t use mesos until tomorrow night 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, Stash said: I would think that 700mb low placement on the GFS would be ideal for the SYR area, but it keeps hitting at the BUF-ROC corridor. This is terrible for here in ENY but we were out of it early. I can't think of too many (any?) storms that evolved like this in mid-January, so from a science perspective its interesting. It's so stupid...and frustrating. Me too. I'm telling you...in the time I have lived here, there is ALWAYS something that screws up synoptic storms here. Not melting...just disappointed. No track seems to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 12Z GEM at 60hr already 4mb stronger with LP (than 00Z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Is it possible for this to still tilt in a different way so that there isn't a firehose coming in above from the Atlantic? Or is that pretty much locked in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Ggem showing some mixing just like the rgem which is not surprising lol Not as wide spread though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: you can see the warm tongue with the llj on gem. See how the higher thicknesses push into syr and roc. Resembles the llj off Atlantic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On the bright side - if some of us get pounded by sleet - there will be some major staying power! The downside is I may throw out my back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Thanks tombo, appreciate the insight.. Hopefully that stays to my south lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Thanks tombo, appreciate the insight.. Hopefully that stays to my south lol Who the heck doesn’t love a little properly placed warm tongue? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: P-type maps on PW showing sleet but it's still adding up lol So I think sleet is included.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 21 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Until Sunday Night. But, where I'm going to be looks to get more than here. lol Shall I extend? Might be a win for you guys... Or a loss for Pennsylvania, lol! I know you’ll keep an eye on the radar because this storm will be moving north from Pennsylvania Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Thanks tombo, appreciate the insight.. Hopefully that stays to my south lol Or east. Should be quick either way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 There's always the Ukie.....right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, TugHillMatt said: There's always the Ukie.....right? The Ukie has been extremely consistent. Will give it that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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