Widespread Snow Potential January 16th to January 18th

[rochesterdave]

I’m still pretty confident we don’t have mixing (and if we did it would be for a minute) but I guess it’s a limiting factor we need to watch. 

[rochesterdave]

We’ll see how robust that typical 48 hour westward push is. Our eastern folks don’t have a ton of room to spare. Especially with dryslotting.  But all in all, looks solid. A big one. 
Can’t remember consistency like this. Days of a fairly consistent track. Scary consistent 

[Thinksnow18]

9 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

I’m still pretty confident we don’t have mixing (and if we did it would be for a minute) but I guess it’s a limiting factor we need to watch. 

It might be why the deformation zone is over WNY is that’s where the best lift will be and copious amounts of Atlantic moisture which could be sneaking in Atlantic air

[Flying MXZ]

37 minutes ago, yankees102110 said:

Off topic but great username Flying MXZ. I have a 98 MXZ 440 fanner, it’s my favorite sled that I own. I’m partial to the older sleds. I had a 2013 F570 but was not a fan of the rider forward position. Now I have the MXZ and a 02 supersport but I prefer the MXZ. 

I've had a couple, starting with a 96.5 MXZ670.  Loved that sled in it's time.  Now ride Renegades but I have that name at several places so I have no desire to change it. 

[DeltaT13]

My only concern for far WNY is that deep convection off the east coast and the possibility of the surface low popping up 50-75 miles further East which could move the deformation band east. We are riding the hairy edge in WNY, the Niagara frontier specifically.  ROC seems well situated with a little more wiggle room though. I’d rather see a little NW trend these next few runs. 

[OSUmetstud]

4 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

It might be why the deformation zone is over WNY is that’s where the best lift will be and copious amounts of Atlantic moisture which could be sneaking in Atlantic air

I think its probably overcooked. The mountain downslope process is a real thing. But that crazy inflow is not just at 850 it's present at 700 and even at 500. So the local temperature change should be offset a great deal through all that inflow converting to adiabatic lift. 

 

[tim123]

Should be cool watching satalite radar today and specifically tonight. Ne wind streamers on south shore. Could be a nice appetizer. 

[96blizz]

6 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

My only concern for far WNY is that deep convection off the east coast and the possibility of the surface low popping up 50-75 miles further East which could move the deformation band east. We are riding the hairy edge in WNY, the Niagara frontier specifically.  ROC seems well situated with a little more wiggle room though. I’d rather see a little NW trend these next few runs. 

Posted about this just earlier. This is my sneaking suspicion after having lived with east coast snowstorms for 37 years. 9 times out of 10 there is a last minute SE tick…. As you may have seen, I wrote years ago in my parody Guidelines:

 

“Phase 6: The Last Minute SE Ticks

You wake up having impregnated your spouse. You’re exhausted and hungover – but you don’t care because you went to bed with 9 versions of the NAM, the GEM-LAM, RGEM and 13 of the 9,913 SREF plumes showing you’re going to get smoked. You roll over out of bed and grab your charged phone or iPad (or both so you’re ready to track it inside all day versus going out and actually enjoying the fruits of your labor) and, O.M.G. The models ticked EAST? WTF!!!! HOW can this happen? (by the way, it f*cking happens EVERY time!!!). The NAM cut back for all areas, ESPECIALLY N and W. The RGEM is a shell of its former self. Meanwhile, the GFS has never budged (and will be wrong) and the Euro has stayed pretty consistent. But now you’re so pissed you want to reach into your partner’s private area and take back your future snow baby. This storm isn’t worth it. Then you look at the radar and, like being high on shrooms, you realize that the models are completely wrong. It’s snowing in Nipplehair, TN. No model had that!!! It’s snowing in Marryyourbrother, WV. Ha! Nothing was even close to that!

But guess what? The models are going to be right and someone who thought they would see snow will be smoking cirrus. For most, it may just be a slight cutback – but it doesn’t feel like it. It’s the final gut punch of this wild ride but, alas, for most it will snow and will be beautiful and all of the above will have been worth it.

So the next time we start tracking one of these bad boys from 360 hours out, give this a read and know it will evolve this way to a degree every single time.”

[tombo82685]

19 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

My only concern for far WNY is that deep convection off the east coast and the possibility of the surface low popping up 50-75 miles further East which could move the deformation band east. We are riding the hairy edge in WNY, the Niagara frontier specifically.  ROC seems well situated with a little more wiggle room though. I’d rather see a little NW trend these next few runs. 

I've also seen all that convection can also really enhance downstream ridging out ahead of a system and argue for a more west option too 

[tombo82685]

I would start paying more attention to mesos starting tomorrow night and def sunday. They are going to be the best to pick up those sneaky warm layers that globals will not. Don't under estimate the power of that LLJ screaming off the atlantic into the system. That will transport warm air inland aloft. Maybe not enough for some to avoid IP but enough to lower snow ratios. That LLJ hose is also what creates your big deform band too

[DeltaT13]

2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

I've also seen all that convection can also really enhance downstream ridging out ahead of a system and argue for a more west option too 

A valid point, it’s a battle between these two.  It seems that there is a definitive low transfer/jump around NYC where you can see the remnant parent surface low and then a new surface low closer to the deeper convection. It appears the OG parent low is driving the defo band in our region. Something to monitor as the location of that band is what takes places from a good storm to a great storm. 

[96blizz]

1 minute ago, tombo82685 said:

I would start paying more attention to mesos starting tomorrow night and def sunday. They are going to be the best to pick up those sneaky warm layers that globals will not. Don't under estimate the power of that LLJ screaming off the atlantic into the system. That will transport warm air inland aloft. Maybe not enough for some to avoid IP but enough to lower snow ratios. That LLJ hose is also what creates your big deform band too

Yeah. I lived in NW NJ in the hills before I moved and those warm tongues were always undermodeled by the globals. We would get sleet all the time - temps at like 25 or so - then flip back as the low pulled away. 

[tombo82685]

Right now I would say rochester area has best shot at 15"+ as they get the northerly to northeasterly flow off Ontario to enhance snowfall. This is assuming no other adjustments are made in tracks 

[tombo82685]

8 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

A valid point, it’s a battle between these two.  It seems that there is a definitive low transfer/jump around NYC where you can see the remnant parent surface low and then a new surface low closer to the deeper convection. It appears the OG parent low is driving the defo band in our region. Something to monitor as the location of that band is what takes places from a good storm to a great storm. 

Yea I see that on the surface map. The one thing that gives me pause and makes me wonder if models are just placing the low under the deepest convection is the mid level tracks. The H85, h7 and h5 low don't redevelop to the east and get vertically stacked under that low pressure. They remain steady with the initial parent low. 

[Syrmax]

1 hour ago, Flying MXZ said:

 

The first map I think I've seen.  He's definitely more of a mid-atlantic forecaster, but I'll take my 6"-10" in our snowhole.

https://dtwxrisk.medium.com/1st-guess-snow-map-for-jan-16-17-tenn-valley-east-coast-winter-storm-d31a02503f1b

HeWhoShallNotBeNamed is usually pretty good with snowstorm forecasts and discusssions.  I love it when he gets emotional and digs into a position that busts. 

 

[Flying MXZ]

4 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

HeWhoShallNotBeNamed is usually pretty good with snowstorm forecasts and discusssions.  I love it when he gets emotional and digs into a position that busts. 

 

Yea, he can be........entertaining. 

[wolfie09]

1 hour ago, vortmax said:

We take pre storm LE Tim/Dave. 

 

 

Nws doesn't seem impressed. 

 

Again...the bitter cold
airmass will generate some light lake snows south of Lake Ontario
with very minimal accumulations. The snow will be less able to accum
to any degree being in the form of needles and thin plates rather
than fluffy dendrites.

[vortmax]

2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Nws doesn't seem impressed. 

 

Again...the bitter cold
airmass will generate some light lake snows south of Lake Ontario
with very minimal accumulations. The snow will be less able to accum
to any degree being in the form of needles and thin plates rather
than fluffy dendrites.

Yet their PNC says 3-7" and map....

 

Today

Light snow likely, mainly between 11am and noon. Cloudy, with a temperature falling to around 14 by 5pm. North wind 15 to 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Tonight

A chance of light snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 4. Wind chill values as low as -10. North wind 15 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Saturday

A chance of light snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 11. Wind chill values as low as -10. North wind 8 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.'

[wolfie09]

Just now, vortmax said:

Yet their PNC says 3-7" ...hmm

Today

Light snow likely, mainly between 11am and noon. Cloudy, with a temperature falling to around 14 by 5pm. North wind 15 to 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Tonight

A chance of light snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 4. Wind chill values as low as -10. North wind 15 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Saturday

A chance of light snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 11. Wind chill values as low as -10. North wind 8 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.'

Don't kill the messenger haha 

Obviously low confidence forecast though, mainly at 40-60% pops .

[vortmax]

Just now, wolfie09 said:

Don't kill the messenger haha 

Obviously low confidence forecast though, mainly at 40-60% pops .

     Hugs and kisses wolfie

[wolfie09]

[vortmax]

They are all in on the track, def band, and LE...nice.

[tim123]

1 to 7 inches for Duluth. Lol winter weather advisories sw side of superior. 

[CoolMikeWx]

7 hours ago, rochesterdave said:

For kicks. Lots to go around! 

I love you guys up north and west but this thing needs to shift SE a bit. Lower HV in the 3-5 inch area. Share the love.

12z run today should be interesting.

[tim123]

Set up very similar in my opinion.

[BuffaloWeather]

[tim123]

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Is that snow or sleet. Color scheme sucks between snow and sleet

[vortmax]

Just now, tim123 said:

Is that snow or sleet. Color scheme sucks between snow and sleet

That's heavy-ass snow. You can see the sleet just north of the Frzr layer.

[DeltaT13]

2 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Is that snow or sleet. Color scheme sucks between snow and sleet

Snow because it’s nested within the last color blue in the snow scale. 

[tim123]

1 minute ago, DeltaT13 said:

Snow because it’s nested within the last color blue in the snow scale. 

Next question how heavy is that. Rate?