rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 BOMB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Another big hit for wny it’s further west then the gfs is. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Overall no big changes. Its still liking an eastern PA track with a wny jack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Hope it’s not too amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 While you wait for the better graphics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Tracks due NE from State College. Great run! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Yup, Euro big hit WNY/NNY/ONT/Lake Ontario. Slot issues for CNY similar to NAM. Decent hit for CNY though. Probably 8-12" here, not counting any lake enhancement on the ass end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Nice defo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Classic. Big comma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Precipitation between the models.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Looking at all models like that seems to be a pretty good agreement now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 For kicks. Lots to go around! 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Watches are up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 6z GFS looks to pretty much hold serve includes the backside lake effect for favored areas. Low tracks east of euro so less dry slot issues… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 hour ago, tim123 said: Watches are up. Yes a bit earlier than I thought yesterday but with the overnight and the 6z model runs really looking the same the NWS is starting to use the word likely instead of possible heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_rules Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 50 minutes ago, 96blizz said: 6z GFS looks to pretty much hold serve includes the backside lake effect for favored areas. Low tracks east of euro so less dry slot issues… It’s been interesting to see an area of much lower accumulations right over my house (western Delaware County) on many of the runs. Go 25 miles East or West and it looks much better. Remarkable consistency, really, for how far away the event still is. Unfortunate, but remarkable. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 11 minutes ago, winter_rules said: It’s been interesting to see an area of much lower accumulations right over my house (western Delaware County) on many of the runs. Go 25 miles East or West and it looks much better. Remarkable consistency, really, for how far away the event still is. Unfortunate, but remarkable. I know it’s not 100 percent popular here, but having had storms like this for most of my life living in NJ, I still believe this jogs SE a bit in the next 48 hours… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 06z RGEM looks good as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 10 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: 06z RGEM looks good as well. Still snowing too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 48 minutes ago, winter_rules said: It’s been interesting to see an area of much lower accumulations right over my house (western Delaware County) on many of the runs. Go 25 miles East or West and it looks much better. Remarkable consistency, really, for how far away the event still is. Unfortunate, but remarkable. I’m north of you in that same snow hole. When I first saw it 3 days ago I had no concerns, and figured it would probably shift east within a run or two. Now I’m concerned. The persistence is really remarkable, run after run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 We take pre storm LE Tim/Dave. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 The first map I think I've seen. He's definitely more of a mid-atlantic forecaster, but I'll take my 6"-10" in our snowhole. https://dtwxrisk.medium.com/1st-guess-snow-map-for-jan-16-17-tenn-valley-east-coast-winter-storm-d31a02503f1b 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankees102110 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, Flying MXZ said: The first map I think I've seen. He's definitely more of a mid-atlantic forecaster, but I'll take my 6"-10" in our snowhole. https://dtwxrisk.medium.com/1st-guess-snow-map-for-jan-16-17-tenn-valley-east-coast-winter-storm-d31a02503f1b Off topic but great username Flying MXZ. I have a 98 MXZ 440 fanner, it’s my favorite sled that I own. I’m partial to the older sleds. I had a 2013 F570 but was not a fan of the rider forward position. Now I have the MXZ and a 02 supersport but I prefer the MXZ. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 16 minutes ago, Flying MXZ said: The first map I think I've seen. He's definitely more of a mid-atlantic forecaster, but I'll take my 6"-10" in our snowhole. https://dtwxrisk.medium.com/1st-guess-snow-map-for-jan-16-17-tenn-valley-east-coast-winter-storm-d31a02503f1b That map is horrible. It’s pretty much a normal “chalk” map as how systems would act with climo. Not certain what that poster is seeing but that remarkably less snowfall than any other model out there. Toss. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 19 minutes ago, vortmax said: We take pre storm LE Tim/Dave. May be over done. But definitely could see 3 4 inches in areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 53 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: 06z RGEM looks good as well. At this point we might be able to start discussing this as an all time event for the Niagara frontier. Someone in that region will get 2 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 6z euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 5 hours ago, rochesterdave said: For kicks. Lots to go around! Have fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 This is total including pre LES 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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