BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 GFS is consistent, maybe 5-10 miles SE on that run? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Total precipitation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Even the GFS is doing that weird mixing to its northwest. It's farther east (over Long Island) than Rgem and Nam, but you can see it showing up in the Berkshires and Eastern NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 25 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Oh, I have. lol I've seen sleet in the teens. Surface temps means very little in terms of IP. All about mid levels 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 and my area in ohio is down to an inch from 15 last night on the gfs LOL 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, tombo82685 said: I've seen sleet in the teens. Surface temps means very little in terms of IP. All about mid levels If I recall correctly, the temp was 20ish during the Blizzard of 93 when we had sleet for hours in Southeastern PA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 13 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: No way you mix with a track like that. With snow between you and the LP?!?No way. I've seen it before, it can happen. It may not be in that location, but it can happen. There is going to be warm tongues in the mid levels. Thats why kuchie maps should be tossed for the middle of the storm because there are warm tongues that may rime flakes 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: If I recall correctly, the temp was 20ish during the Blizzard of 93 when we had sleet for hours in Southeastern PA. Presidents day storm in 03 had pounding sleet in the teens 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Even the GFS is doing that weird mixing to its northwest. It's farther east (over Long Island) than Rgem and Nam, but you can see it showing up in the Berkshires and Eastern NY. Looked at model soundings for those spots, it's sleet. Seems unlikely given the slp and mid level tracks. But, plenty of Gulf and Atlantic moisture being thrown into the CCB circulation so brief mixing is maybe ???. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 A circle of pink in a sea of blue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just look at the fronto on the GFS. Thing of beauty. I think the mixing risk is overdone this far inland. Soundings from the GFS @ 84. While ART is absolutely cooking here verbatim, I think each major location has a period of very efficient snow growth. Rates should be quite nice. Maybe not high end LES but plenty good for synoptic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: I've seen sleet in the teens. Surface temps means very little in terms of IP. All about mid levels 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, TugHillMatt said: A circle of pink in a sea of blue. There’s still a chance someone accidentally gets stuck in PA on Sunday…. Just let us have this one please? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, Blue Moon said: I've seen ZR at 24 degrees. Feb 2015 Plains I believe had it in the teens maybe single digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: There’s still a chance someone accidentally gets stuck in PA on Sunday…. Just let us have this one please? Lol..you guys have it. I just have to sit here another 72 hours trying to figure out if it's going to be sleet or snow. THM Non-Winter Storm Warning in effect. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Just look at the fronto on the GFS. Thing of beauty. I think the mixing risk is overdone this far inland. Soundings from the GFS @ 84. While ART is absolutely cooking here verbatim, I think each major location has a period of very efficient snow growth. Rates should be quite nice. Maybe not high end LES but plenty good for synoptic. Can you pull one from SYR at the warmest period? I think 84 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I remember a observation from Massena ny of freezing rain and a temp of 1 below zero. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Blue Moon said: I've seen ZR at 24 degrees. Feb 2015 1 minute ago, Blue Moon said: I've seen ZR at 24 degrees. Feb 2015 I think it was April 2017 or 2018 we had over a quarter inch of freezing rain at like 18 degrees IN APRIL! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 In all seriousness, as it looks now i'd say erie to rochester to watertown looks the best to maximize snow growth and best spot in relation to h7 track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Blue Moon said: I've seen ZR at 24 degrees. Feb 2015 Probably over running scenario? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Can you pull one from SYR at the warmest period? I think 84 hours? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Strong frontogensis signature for banding and location on 00Z GooFuS 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 GEFS a little west of 18z but not much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, Blue Moon said: I've seen ZR at 24 degrees. Feb 2015 Setup for ZR and even PL isn't right for CNY. If we slot, then maybe some if the mid levels pass right overhead but not in the CCB circulation on the NW side of the system. Esp with the temp profiles antecedent and in-storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Thanks Tom! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 the gefs suck 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, tombo82685 said: the gefs suck I wish they didn't, because they look the best for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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