BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Nam does actually bring 850s above freezing verbatim llol But it's the LR NAM.. What a terrible model 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Warmest frame on GFS. No way it goes above 0. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Blue Moon said: I'm not going to worry too much about NAM runs this far out. I'll keep an eye on where it's placing the low for now. Once we get w/in 36 hours I'll start worrying about dry slots and warm-nosing. Unfortunately we've been burned with synoptic systems sooooooo many times in CNY in the several years I have lived here, that I am so skeptical of good snowstorms here. Syracuse was a true synoptic snow king in the 20th century. 21st Century? Not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Blue Moon said: I don't see how the 850s would be above freezing if the low is on the coast. Well, it looks like it's trying to push that maritime air in off the CT coast, over the Catskills and then it drops into the Mohawk Valley/CNY area. SE winds suck here. But, still seems very unlikely. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 RGEM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Rgem does the SAME thing as NAM. Yes, I would have the ultimate Melt if this happened. @CNY_WXand @Syrmax 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 It drops .75" of QPF in 3 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 ICON 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: ICON Darth Z Bond again. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Not surprising lol 12z Ggem showed the same thing and I expect 0z to do the same lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: It drops .75" of QPF in 3 hours. It’s a hellacious thump lol. There’s some big omega in the soundings within that band. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: It’s a hellacious thump lol. There’s some big omega in the soundings within that band. As someone who loves high snowfall rates over anything else in winter cannot say I'm not excited. I also have off on Monday so nothing to do but chase where ever that band sets up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 For you longer-resident NY residents, have you seen a Low in that position off NJ bring in enough warm air to do such a ridiculous thing in the Syracuse area? It looks like we would be in that heavy snow that's showing up in ridiculous colors, but instead they're both interpreting it as a mix? I'm dumbfounded. The only thing I can think of is what I said earlier with the hellwind from the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: For you longer-resident NY residents, have you seen a Low in that position off NJ bring in enough warm air to do such a ridiculous thing in the Syracuse area? It looks like we would be in that heavy snow that's showing up in ridiculous colors, but instead they're both interpreting it as a mix? I'm dumbfounded. The only thing I can think of is what I said early with the hellwind from the SE. No. That’s a unique new phenomenon called the THM effect, not to be confused with the THC effect. One makes everything melt , the other makes you eat everything in your pantry. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: For you longer-resident NY residents, have you seen a Low in that position off NJ bring in enough warm air to do such a ridiculous thing in the Syracuse area? It looks like we would be in that heavy snow that's showing up in ridiculous colors, but instead they're both interpreting it as a mix? I'm dumbfounded. The only thing I can think of is what I said earlier with the hellwind from the SE. Dynamic cooling is your friend. Dryslot is not. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: No. That’s a unique new phenomenon called the THM effect, not to be confused with the THC effect. One makes everything melt , the other makes you eat everything in your pantry. Hilarious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: For you longer-resident NY residents, have you seen a Low in that position off NJ bring in enough warm air to do such a ridiculous thing in the Syracuse area? It looks like we would be in that heavy snow that's showing up in ridiculous colors, but instead they're both interpreting it as a mix? I'm dumbfounded. The only thing I can think of is what I said earlier with the hellwind from the SE. There will be a dryslot somewhere but the mixing some of these models are showing will not happen. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: No. That’s a unique new phenomenon called the THM effect, not to be confused with the THC effect. One makes everything melt , the other makes you eat everything in your pantry. 1 minute ago, vortmax said: Dynamic cooling is your friend. Dryslot is not. Just now, vortmax said: Hilarious lol... I truly can't believe both models are showing this. What are the odds? Apparently high if I'm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: For you longer-resident NY residents, have you seen a Low in that position off NJ bring in enough warm air to do such a ridiculous thing in the Syracuse area? It looks like we would be in that heavy snow that's showing up in ridiculous colors, but instead they're both interpreting it as a mix? I'm dumbfounded. The only thing I can think of is what I said earlier with the hellwind from the SE. It's Thursday night. Two days left for this to evolve. (Out to the BM LOL) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Syrmax said: It's Thursday night. Two days left for this to evolve. (Out to the BM LOL) So instead of dryslot, mixing, or furnace...it's downsloping? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: lol... I truly can't believe both models are showing this. What are the odds? Apparently high if I'm here. I think this is what you're referencing? Look at sounding and 2m temps, that is heavy snow not a mix. Just checked bottom right and says precip type sleet. I don't think I've seen sleet at 20 degrees before? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Dont sleep on pre game ne flow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: I think this is what you're referencing? Look at sounding and 2m temps, that is heavy snow not a mix. Just checked bottom right and says precip type sleet. I don't think I've seen sleet at 20 degrees before? Oh, I have. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I think this is what you're referencing? Look at sounding and 2m temps, that is heavy snow not a mix. Just checked bottom right and says precip type sleet. I don't think I've seen sleet at 20 degrees before? Especially with the low over Maryland! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Well, if it happens...it would be another example of continued extremes that seem to be occurring in these parts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 16 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I think this is what you're referencing? Look at sounding and 2m temps, that is heavy snow not a mix. Just checked bottom right and says precip type sleet. I don't think I've seen sleet at 20 degrees before? That's a sleet profile but it's overcooked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I think this is what you're referencing? Look at sounding and 2m temps, that is heavy snow not a mix. Just checked bottom right and says precip type sleet. I don't think I've seen sleet at 20 degrees before? Setting aside that it's the NAM at range, you see a couple things that stand out here. First, the lift is quite impressive. Whatever falls looks to be heavy. Verbatim, it looks like things are right on the edge aloft with temps near freezing, and I do spy a bit of a warm nose right around 850mb. Not sure I'd be worried about mixing unless we saw the 700mb low screaming right overhead. The globals don't really introduce mixing into the region but has a rather uniform (and beautiful) deformation that traverses WNY. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 No way you mix with a track like that. With snow between you and the LP?!?No way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: No way you mix with a track like that. With snow between you and the LP?!?No way. NAM gonna NAM. But i wouldn't 100% dismiss it either. Plenty of time for this to evolve. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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