Thinksnow18 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Watches just issued for western North Carolina, western Virginia and West Virginia. The storm fir that area is 48-60 hours out, which means by tomorrow at this time we will also have watches hoisted. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 700 is same. I think this is what they mean by vertically stacked. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 33 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Saw that. Not sure if we have any posters there but I feel their pain. That is usually overdone on the models for there. It takes a rather strong easterly fetch to downslope them severely (Dec 92 is the only somewhat recent example of severe downsloping in the city). In terms of climo, the typical areas of shadowing in ENY during nor-easters are in southern Washington County and Northern Rensselaer County. The City of Albany itself, shadows more on a SW wind flow, which is unusual in nor'easters. If this thing does cut west, depending on its orientation, I suppose it could happen. That said, I do buy the lower totals. I don't usually trust big amounts with the SLP tracking to our west. Its usually an initial strong thump, then rather quick dryslotting/sleet/drizzle. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Needless to say this storm has epic possibilities for WNY, but the whole run of the GFS is still incredible. It’s been mentioned today a few times but it goes to say this has potential for a very special 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I'm waiting for BUF to get excited about it. Definitely has potential to be the bigger synoptic storm in quite some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Already coming down hard on the last frame of RGEM. These maps gave me a chubby 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Already coming down hard on the last frame of RGEM. These maps gave me a chubby Pretty impressive to still get a chubby with no nuts. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Quite a few complete misses for Buffalo on GEFS, definitely went further SE then 12z. Damn. Pretty much every one good here, while the non ensembles show us with dry slot issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Pretty impressive to still get a chubby with no nuts. Shoots blanks 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Only negative is timing, looks like a potential all nighter on tap lol Just don't blink.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, vortmax said: I'm waiting for BUF to get excited about it. Definitely has potential to be the bigger synoptic storm in quite some time. KBUF and every TV met here is like "nor'easter, maybe a heavy snow, we might get brushed by it". Even the usual big hype ones like Cejka are like whatever so far. Weird for a synoptic storm with this potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Leelee said: KBUF and every TV met here is like "nor'easter, maybe a heavy snow, we might get brushed by it". Even the usual big hype ones like Cejka are like whatever so far. Weird for a synoptic storm with this potential. I thought Buffalo Mets only got excited by 3 mile wide bands of ‘shedding mortal coil’ 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, Leelee said: KBUF and every TV met here is like "nor'easter, maybe a heavy snow, we might get brushed by it". Even the usual big hype ones like Cejka are like whatever so far. Weird for a synoptic storm with this potential. I was thinking the EXACT same thing. Just watched channel 7 forecast and Andy Parker said if everything goes right we could get as much as 6-10”. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if we got 6-10” but to say if everything goes right we could see as MUCH as 6-10” seems very low. I feel like if this thing shifts around (which is highly likely as we get better sampling out west) and things shift East or west we could definitely be in for “only” 6-10”… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: I was thinking the EXACT same thing. Just watched channel 7 forecast and Andy Parker said if everything goes right we could get as much as 6-10”. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if we got 6-10” but to say if everything goes right we could see as MUCH as 6-10” seems very low. I feel like if this thing shifts around (which is highly likely as we get better sampling out west) and things shift East or west we could definitely be in for “only” 6-10”… All these public Mets and NWS Staff have all been burned before...and there's always tomorrow to hype the bejesus out of it... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6-10" is a cop-out forecast where they're not going to miss too badly in either direction, but the variance is much higher than that. ROC could get 4" and they'd say "close enough" or we could get 16" and they'd say "well, you got the gist". 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 25 minutes ago, Leelee said: KBUF and every TV met here is like "nor'easter, maybe a heavy snow, we might get brushed by it". Even the usual big hype ones like Cejka are like whatever so far. Weird for a synoptic storm with this potential. Todd was much more on top of it tonight at 7. He even mentioned not trying to scare anyone this far out but said it looks good for a widespread foot for WNY and the potential for an area within to double that. For Todd that’s as hyped as you’ll see. As for Mike he’s been really off his game lately. This am he had snow showers and light snow while ALL models were already showing this scenario. He was also off badly with the lake effect last week as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Anyone have the 18z runs for cmc and euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 There ya go 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Last frame of 18z Euro 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Perfect place for a late game SE correction. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 14 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Last frame of 18z Euro Watch ft Erie be the big winner lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Here was the 18z Canadian, only goes out to HR84.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 The Euro is kind of showing my other concern -- that the deformation band lifts through this area, we get like 4" in 2 hours, then about 8 hours of flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, PerintonMan said: The Euro is kind of showing my other concern -- that the deformation band lifts through this area, we get like 4" in 2 hours, then about 8 hours of flurries. A 985 LP over Scranton is as good as it gets for Rochester. I feel good. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 18z eps track looks close to 12z. Nice deform signature for the south shore area. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 This looks like a 6-10 for most of the region. Buffalo to Rochester 10-15 be my guess 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Which one of you weenies hacked GEFS number 5? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 The EPS really tightened up. Nice. Is 18z the first run with some good northern stream vortmax sampling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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