vortmax Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, tim123 said: Meso models seeing ne flow before storm. Really rooting for this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Ouch lol Stay warm.. WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as low as 35 below zero. * WHERE...Oswego county. * WHEN...From 6 PM Friday to 1 PM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is a potentially dangerous situation to be outdoors. If you must be outside, be sure to cover all exposed skin. Frostbite can occur in 15 minutes or less with apparent temperatures of 25 below zero or colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 43 minutes ago, Stash said: It can happen wherever the deformation sets up, but this is a relatively quick mover. Been in ENY more than 20 years now, and have seen at least 6 or 7 storms of over 20", in between all the whiffs, usually to the south and east. That number includes the back to back storms in 02/03, and two more the past two Decembers. I'm glad to see WNY getting in on the fun this time. That's about right Stash. That dump one year ago December was a beauty. A bit over 30 in my driveway. Just lovely! 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Gorizer said: That's about right Stash. That dump one year ago December was a beauty. A bit over 30 in my driveway. Just lovely! Love your snowblower. Which model JD is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 23 minutes ago, tim123 said: Meso models seeing ne flow before storm. I really hope so for you. You could get a triple punch. This NE flow event, then the storm itself, and then WNW flow on the backside. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: I really hope so for you. You could get a triple punch. This NE flow event, then the storm itself, and then WNW flow on the backside. The Triple Lindy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 This ne flow stuff is usually pure fluff. 30 to 40 to 1 type stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: Love your snowblower. Which model JD is that? GT 235. 18 horses. Had her nearly 20 years now. Runs as good today as the day I got her. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, tim123 said: This ne flow stuff is usually pure fluff. 30 to 40 to 1 type stuff Eh, it depends. If you go by ROC airport's measurements, the ratio will be 75:1. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Nam's out. Doing it's Nam thing...trying to throw lots and lots of mixing in well NW of the Low. Not sure what to make of this... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Takes the Low NORTHWEST from Norfolk to Richmond in 3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 There's lots of cold air pressing in and no big ridge off the coast, so I don't know why it would cut NW like that? Is this what the NWS was discussing with the latent heat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Someone in this storm is going to have a massive dry slot, where that ends up is anyone’s guess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Damn extrapolation takes it right into Jamestown. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Those colors over wny is just crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Nam this far out is always goofy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Damn extrapolation takes it right into Jamestown. Watch this end up in Toronto like feb 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Those colors over wny is just crazy. That snow or sleet? Can't tell with color scheme? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, tim123 said: Nam this far out is always goofy. True. It could just as much all of a sudden jog it Northeast to Newark in the next timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Anyone else notice that fish storm off the coast on Saturday goes sub 960mb, geez. Talk about an active east coast pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, tim123 said: That snow or sleet? Can't tell with color scheme? I think neither. The model doesn't know how to output extremely heavy snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Our attention then turns to a potential significant synoptic system. The 12Z GFS/Canadian/ECMWF continue to be in very good agreement overall with the longwave pattern evolution and synoptic scale details. The deterministic runs continue to show a low track further west than climatology, however the 12Z GFS/ECMWF have trended a LITTLE further east, which is to be expected this far out. Nonetheless, things remain on track for a possible significant event across our region. East coast systems typically track along the coast and close to the coastal front, but in this case the strong synoptic scale dynamics may overcome that trend and force the low track farther west and well inland across the Mid Atlantic and PA. One big reason for this can be blamed on a large surface high that will precede the storm...with the high moving off the New England coast and blocking a more typical storm track up the coast. Nor`easters usually run up the coast ahead of the Canadian high...but the timing is such that the surface high may force the storm system inland and up the coastal plain. Storms of this nature have a history of generating widespread snow throughout all of western and north central New York. The upper level energy that will force this system is currently over the Pacific Northwest. This will allow it to be better sampled by the radiosonde network and aircraft soundings from this point forward, which should continue to promote converging model solutions and increasing forecast confidence over the next day or two. Increased the PoPs to categorical for later Sunday night through Monday given the continued overall run to run agreement within the model suites. If the models continue to support this solution, confidence will continue to increase for a widespread, impactful snow event late Sunday night through Monday. Following this system, expect some wrap around snow showers and at least some limited lake effect east/southeast of the lakes Monday night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 9 minutes ago, tim123 said: Nam this far out is always goofy. Plus, this snowfall map sums up what you said very nicely... lol... Swiss Cheese. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: I think neither. The model doesn't know how to output extremely heavy snow. I mean if you look at the legend, thats just obscenely heavy snow as its nested within the darkest blue colors that are only found in the snow color legend. It's very rare to see that color scale actually in play! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 Well as a newbie here in Onondaga (Cicero ) I'm ready for SNOW Sunday night into Monday Night. I feel confidant 6 inches is a lock and if it's an extreme overperformer 12- 18 inches. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: I mean if you look at the legend, thats just obscenely heavy snow as its nested within the darkest blue colors that are only found in the snow color legend. It's very rare to see that color scale actually in play! I do think there will be a band that does 2 3 inches a hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Binghamton There continues to be rather good agreement that a strengthening area of low pressure will track from the Carolinas to New England Sunday night through Monday. While there continues to be spread within the ensembles, confidence is slowly increasing for a track somewhere in the vicinity of the Hudson Valley. However, considering this is still several days out, this may shift a bit west or east, which creates a very uncertain forecast in terms of type of precipitation and amounts. A shift a bit west would likely introduce the possibility for a wintry mix across parts of the area, especially east of I-81. A shift a bit east would introduce the possibility for the heavier snow to be across our area. Right now, if you went with the deterministic consensus verbatim, the heaviest axis of snow would be actually be across Western NY with a potential dry slot deflating amounts a bit across Central NY and Northeast PA. Main point here is that while confidence is high for a storm system to impact the area, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty with this system. After coordinating with our surrounding offices, opted to not issue any Winter Storm Watches yet due to this high degree of uncertainty and the fact this storm is not expected to impact the area until the Sunday night/Monday timeframe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 9 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: I mean if you look at the legend, thats just obscenely heavy snow as its nested within the darkest blue colors that are only found in the snow color legend. It's very rare to see that color scale actually in play! I was referring to the "yellows" that are not on the legend for snow. Either way, HEAVY snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Icon is back to being inland.. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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