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Widespread Snow Potential January 16th to January 18th


sferic
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Ouch lol Stay warm..

WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as
  low as 35 below zero.

* WHERE...Oswego county.

* WHEN...From 6 PM Friday to 1 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills could cause
  frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is a potentially dangerous situation to be outdoors. If you
must be outside, be sure to cover all exposed skin. Frostbite can
occur in 15 minutes or less with apparent temperatures of
25 below zero or colder.
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43 minutes ago, Stash said:

It can happen wherever the deformation sets up, but this is a relatively quick mover. Been in ENY more than 20 years now, and have seen at least 6 or 7 storms of over 20", in between all the whiffs, usually to the south and east. That number includes the back to back storms in 02/03, and two more the past two Decembers. I'm glad to see WNY getting in on the fun this time.

That's about right Stash.    That dump one year ago December was a beauty.   A bit over 30 in my driveway.  Just lovely!   :wub:

IMG_9627.jpg

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Our attention then turns to a potential significant synoptic system.
The 12Z GFS/Canadian/ECMWF continue to be in very good agreement
overall with the longwave pattern evolution and synoptic scale
details. The deterministic runs continue to show a low track further
west than climatology, however the 12Z GFS/ECMWF have trended a
LITTLE further east, which is to be expected this far out.
Nonetheless, things remain on track for a possible significant event
across our region.

East coast systems typically track along the coast and close to the
coastal front, but in this case the strong synoptic scale dynamics
may overcome that trend and force the low track farther west and
well inland across the Mid Atlantic and PA. One big reason for this
can be blamed on a large surface high that will precede the
storm...with the high moving off the New England coast and blocking
a more typical storm track up the coast. Nor`easters usually run up
the coast ahead of the Canadian high...but the timing is such that
the surface high may force the storm system inland and up the
coastal plain. Storms of this nature have a history of generating
widespread snow throughout all of western and north central New
York.

The upper level energy that will force this system is currently over
the Pacific Northwest. This will allow it to be better sampled by
the radiosonde network and aircraft soundings from this point
forward, which should continue to promote converging model solutions
and increasing forecast confidence over the next day or two.

Increased the PoPs to categorical for later Sunday night through
Monday given the continued overall run to run agreement within the
model suites. If the models continue to support this solution,
confidence will continue to increase for a widespread, impactful
snow event late Sunday night through Monday. Following this system,
expect some wrap around snow showers and at least some limited lake
effect east/southeast of the lakes Monday night.
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5 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

I think neither. The model doesn't know how to output extremely heavy snow.

I mean if you look at the legend, thats just obscenely heavy snow as its nested within the darkest blue colors that are only found in the snow color legend.  It's very rare to see that color scale actually in play!

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4 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

I mean if you look at the legend, thats just obscenely heavy snow as its nested within the darkest blue colors that are only found in the snow color legend.  It's very rare to see that color scale actually in play!

I do think there will be a band that does 2 3 inches a hour 

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Binghamton

There continues to be rather good agreement that a
strengthening area of low pressure will track from the Carolinas
to New England Sunday night through Monday. While there
continues to be spread within the ensembles, confidence is
slowly increasing for a track somewhere in the vicinity of the
Hudson Valley. However, considering this is still several days
out, this may shift a bit west or east, which creates a very
uncertain forecast in terms of type of precipitation and
amounts. A shift a bit west would likely introduce the
possibility for a wintry mix across parts of the area,
especially east of I-81. A shift a bit east would introduce the
possibility for the heavier snow to be across our area. Right
now, if you went with the deterministic consensus verbatim, the
heaviest axis of snow would be actually be across Western NY
with a potential dry slot deflating amounts a bit across Central
NY and Northeast PA. Main point here is that while confidence
is high for a storm system to impact the area, there is still
quite a bit of uncertainty with this system. After coordinating
with our surrounding offices, opted to not issue any Winter
Storm Watches yet due to this high degree of uncertainty and the
fact this storm is not expected to impact the area until the
Sunday night/Monday timeframe.
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9 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

I mean if you look at the legend, thats just obscenely heavy snow as its nested within the darkest blue colors that are only found in the snow color legend.  It's very rare to see that color scale actually in play!

I was referring to the "yellows" that are not on the legend for snow. Either way, HEAVY snow.

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