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Widespread Snow Potential January 16th to January 18th


sferic
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18 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

I’ll bet $100 no one is getting anything near 24 inches let alone the low 30s I see on that map. It’s fantasy shit

Wouldn't bank on 30" anywhere but 18-24" looks doable esp with any Lake Enhancement. We've seen major snowstorms drop 24-30" upstate where the def zone / pivot occurs. It's not exactly a rare event.

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1 minute ago, Syrmax said:

Wouldn't bank on 30" anywhere but 18-24" looks doable esp with any Lake Enhancement. We've seen major snowstorms drop 24-30" upstate where the def zone / pivot occurs. It's not exactly a rare event.

I believe @LakeEffectKing got 30” in Caz just last year in early February with an insane def band. We eclipsed 24” as well here in Skan. 

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5 minutes ago, 96blizz said:

I believe @LakeEffectKing got 30” in Caz just last year in early February with an insane def band. We eclipsed 24” as well here in Skan. 

Yes, also remember the back to back noreasters in Dec/Jan 2002 that had 24+ with pockets over 30" for the first one.  There was also a major noreaster 3, 4, 5 years back that jackpotted the same I-88 and NE area with 2'+. I remember as actual Blizzard Warnings were put up mid storm for the Oneonta and surrounding areas. My vague recollections think it's better than a 1 in 10 year return probability...maybe closer to 1 in 5 years.

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I'm not trying to poo poo anything as this storm is honestly one of the best looking systems for Upstate that I've seen in the last couple of years, I just think it's wise to keep expectations in check right now.  I think a solid 12-15 storm would be pretty damn fantastic.  

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Just now, DeltaT13 said:

I'm not trying to poo poo anything as this storm is honestly one of the best looking systems for Upstate that I've seen in the last couple of years, I just think it's wise to keep expectations in check right now.  I think a solid 12-15 storm would be pretty damn fantastic.  

I’d be over the moon with that. I totally agree that kuchie is ridiculous. But this could be a big one. 

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1 minute ago, DeltaT13 said:

I'm not trying to poo poo anything as this storm is honestly one of the best looking systems for Upstate that I've seen in the last couple of years, I just think it's wise to keep expectations in check right now.  I think a solid 12-15 storm would be pretty damn fantastic.  

I agree. I do think as far as timeframe we are over due in WNY for a storm like this. 

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1 minute ago, DeltaT13 said:

I'm not trying to poo poo anything as this storm is honestly one of the best looking systems for Upstate that I've seen in the last couple of years, I just think it's wise to keep expectations in check right now.  I think a solid 12-15 storm would be pretty damn fantastic.  

Definitely agree. But I will say living in NJ for 37 years if my life - wherever that deformation band sets up will see some insane totals!  Just hard to pin down and it won’t be a huge area. 

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5 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

I'm not trying to poo poo anything as this storm is honestly one of the best looking systems for Upstate that I've seen in the last couple of years, I just think it's wise to keep expectations in check right now.  I think a solid 12-15 storm would be pretty damn fantastic.  

Agree. And there's a full 48 hrs left for model 2nd thoughts to appear. We've all seen big changes w/in 48 hrs too many times to count.  In fact, despite op model consistency, we're probably violating the axiom to not get too up/down about storms 4-5 days out...

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1 minute ago, Syrmax said:

Agree. And there's a full 48 hrs left for model 2nd thoughts to appear. We've all seen big changes w/in 48 hrs too many times to count.  In fact, despite op model consistency, we're lrobably violating the axiom to not get too up/down about storms 4-5 days out...

Normally I agree, but as someone alluded to earlier, the 2nd thoughts are always on non-Miller A systems. I think the models have this nailed down aside from some last-minute SE correction (maybe 50-100 miles). I think with LE on the current track, the South Shore will see 24" lollies. JMHO

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The model guidance for the 00z/06z cycle show reasonable agreement regarding the Southeast/East Coast surface low Sunday-Tuesday. The new 12z guidance sticks pretty close to previous runs, with just the typical run-to-run wobble variance. All of the deterministic solutions now keep the low inland, with the 06z/12z GFS a hair east, and the UKMET continuing to stick farther south. The ensemble means are also a bit east of the deterministic solutions, though still mostly along or just inland of the coast. Interestingly enough, the 06z/12z GEFS mean continues to keep it's low center offshore and displaced well to the east of its deterministic counterpart, though there are a fair number of ensemble members with an onshore low. WPC prefers a track a little closer to the deterministic solutions, given the trend over the past couple of days has been westward. The closest proxy to the forecast was a blend of the 00z ECMWF and CMC, which places the low over the Philadelphia region on Monday morning, and very close to that of the previous WPC forecast as well. Given the spread in the individual ensemble members, there still a fair amount of uncertainty in the exact low track and even subtle shifts east or west could create large changes in the impacts for especially the major metropolitan cities along the I-95 corridor.

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1 hour ago, PerintonMan said:

Naive question: how do these 3 models have the lows in completely different places (Harrisburg, Scranton, and well east of NJ), but the precip shield are almost exactly the same?

The first 2 are suffering from convective feedback and placing the LP to the east. If you look at them carefully, you'll see 2 areas of LP on each map.

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20 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

I'm not trying to poo poo anything as this storm is honestly one of the best looking systems for Upstate that I've seen in the last couple of years, I just think it's wise to keep expectations in check right now.  I think a solid 12-15 storm would be pretty damn fantastic.  

Very wise, Delta!

image.jpeg.188b3d0d114a8db82a2e09b867e6a72c.jpeg

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23 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Yes, also remember the back to back noreasters in Dec/Jan 2002 that had 24+ with pockets over 30" for the first one.  There was also a major noreaster 3, 4, 5 years back that jackpotted the same I-88 and NE area with 2'+. I remember as actual Blizzard Warnings were put up mid storm for the Oneonta and surrounding areas. My vague recollections think it's better than a 1 in 10 year return probability...maybe closer to 1 in 5 years.

It can happen wherever the deformation sets up, but this is a relatively quick mover. Been in ENY more than 20 years now, and have seen at least 6 or 7 storms of over 20", in between all the whiffs, usually to the south and east. That number includes the back to back storms in 02/03, and two more the past two Decembers. I'm glad to see WNY getting in on the fun this time.

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1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said:

Can we please ban the posting of Kuchera maps?  They aren't realistic and get peoples hopes up.  

 

26 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

I'm not trying to poo poo anything as this storm is honestly one of the best looking systems for Upstate that I've seen in the last couple of years, I just think it's wise to keep expectations in check right now.  I think a solid 12-15 storm would be pretty damn fantastic.  

Sorry—was just trying to answer the question with the visual lol. Don’t disagree with any of the analysis. 

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WPC calling this a "Miller B type setup"..(Not that it matters, at least to me lol)

Low pressure sinking out of the Mid-Mississippi Valley will begin to weaken as a new surface low begins to form off the SC coast in a Miller-B type setup. This coastal low will gradually become dominant, especially by D4, as the mid-level closed low over the MS VLY shifts east and combines with increasing upper diffluence to produce surface pressure falls. While much of this will occur just beyond this forecast period, increasing moist advection out of the Gulf of Mexico will spread precipitation northward into the Southern Appalachians. As this occurs, a wedge of high pressure will actually become reinforced by falling precipitation, and precipitation will likely fall as snow in the higher terrain, but freezing rain in the Piedmont. There remains considerable uncertainty into the track and timing of this system, but it does appear significant accumulations of snow and ice are becoming more likely. WPC probabilities for 4 inches of snowfall are above 40% in the NC mountains and extreme Upstate SC, with WPC probabilities for 0.1" of freezing rain above 10% across the Piedmont of SC and into the Sand Hills of NC.

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6 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

In most cases the HP is farther north so the storm gaines latitude before transferring, this one just transfers a little earlier lol

I don't see any mid or upper level xfer that's obvious. There are closed height features that remain closed from the sfc up to at least 500mb from the Mississippi River Valley  and on E and NE.  There's no dying primary, maybe NWP latching onto some secondary centers...

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