BGM Blizzard Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: What the hell is the NBM? National Blend of Models. It's a melting pot of all the various model solutions. https://luckgrib.com/models/nbm_conus/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 We should have a CNY storm contest...predict the time of first pingers. Bonus is time and duration of dryslot. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Or they could be riding the hrrr haha.. Continues to show over an inch precipitation just by morning.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 6 minutes ago, Syrmax said: We should have a CNY storm contest...predict the time of first pingers. Bonus is time and duration of dryslot. Matt should start a CNY pingslot obs thread. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 There has been little change in the 12Z model consensus. Snow will move in slightly faster (perhaps an hour), but models continue to show a major winter storm impacting the area. Raised storm total snow amounts slightly east of Lake Ontario, but only by an inch or two. This area will be close to a dry slot in the storm system Monday morning, but 12Z models show a bit more QPF before the dry slot moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 11 minutes ago, Syrmax said: We should have a CNY storm contest...predict the time of first pingers. Bonus is time and duration of dryslot. Verification at KSYR: first pingers 4:45 AM. Dryslot 6:13 AM to 9:53 AM. What’s the prize? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Here's the exact numbers .I went up around 2".. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 I think first pingers will between midnight and 1am, lasting possibly a couple hours before transitioning to light snow and dry slotting.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Hrrr even after low passes lat and longitude. My lord. Syracuse is cursed 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 This is a really tough forecast, obviously. I think most of Central New York becomes a sleet fest after 2 AM. In Western New York, I do believe some sleet will mix in... Keeping totals down a bit from what is currently modeled. I tried to pick a time when I thought the synoptic system was done, and true lake-effect kicks in..... This forecast is for the synoptic system only. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Maybe a explanation of what is causing a debate about mixing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 6 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: Verification at KSYR: first pingers 4:45 AM. Dryslot 6:13 AM to 9:53 AM. What’s the prize? My in house Deterministic Model (which relies heavily on determining the location of @TugHillMatt for snowfall events), has first pingers 0230, full slot by 0700, lasting thru 1400. Prize could be an all-inclusive virtual tour of the snow belts of Beyond the Holler Pennsyltucky. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Bernie Rayno did a whole podcast this am. He talked about Syracuse a lot. He still likes them for 12. “I just don’t see the warm intrusion making it that far with the ULL placement”. He mentions Buffalo, Batavia and Rochester as the bullseye with 2 feet. But I wanted to throw some hope towards you guys. I’ll be looking at pressure fall maps soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, tim123 said: Maybe a explanation of what is causing a debate about mixing Who the heck is this guy? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Just now, rochesterdave said: Who the heck is this guy? Random dude in our sub haha. Hopefully he is right because there are tons of mixing issues showing up that seem suspect, much like you mentioned Bernie Rayno said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 44 minutes ago, tim123 said: Probably cause nam shifted Cut n paste error... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Who the heck is this guy? Theres sleet in Charleston WV right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Bernie Rayno did a whole podcast this am. He talked about Syracuse a lot. He still likes them for 12. “I just don’t see the warm intrusion making it that far with the ULL placement”. He mentions Buffalo, Batavia and Rochester as the bullseye with 2 feet. But I wanted to throw some hope towards you guys. I’ll be looking at pressure fall maps soon. Rayno really missing the boat if he didn't factor in "The Tug Hill Curse". #protip 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Onondaga county upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning. Sorry if posted already. https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NYZ018&warncounty=NYC067&firewxzone=NYZ018&local_place1=Skaneateles NY&product1=Winter+Storm+Warning&lat=42.9456&lon=-76.4275#.YeR1pRZOkWM 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Hrrr 18z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Heading out to Holiday Valley for the night. Should be snowing on the way back! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 11 minutes ago, 96blizz said: Onondaga county upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning. Sorry if posted already. https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NYZ018&warncounty=NYC067&firewxzone=NYZ018&local_place1=Skaneateles NY&product1=Winter+Storm+Warning&lat=42.9456&lon=-76.4275#.YeR1pRZOkWM BGM upgraded pretty much everyone to a warning. I don’t see much difference in my forecast yet though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Nam meh lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 6 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Nam meh lol Tracks from here to Tombo. Shaping up to be a WAA thump or bust for most of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 20 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Heading out to Holiday Valley for the night. Should be snowing on the way back! Should stay there overnight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 NAM 3km shows freezing rain on the backside of a low pressure system. I've never seen that before. That has to be sleet right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, vortmax said: Should stay there overnight! I know I'm off tomorrow but the guys I'm going with are not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 14 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Nam meh lol Like I said, the NAM will either look like the best model ever, or the NWS should just purge it after this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 8 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Tracks from here to Tombo. Shaping up to be a WAA thump or bust for most of us. Goes right over my house. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Just now, LakeEffectKing said: Goes right over my house. What sort of validity do you find in not only the track, but the extensive mixing it shows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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