rochesterdave Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Hey, real sorry to see advisories over east. I guess we all saw it coming. It’s tough. I know for sure. Maybe things surprise and it’s all gravy because you ain’t expecting much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brentrich Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Final call Roc - 19" Syr - 5" Buf - 13" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 2:51 PM, rochesterdave said: Hey, real sorry to see advisories over east. I guess we all saw it coming. It’s tough. I know for sure. Maybe things surprise and it’s all gravy because you ain’t expecting much. Expand Good news is those advisories only go to 7PM tomorrow and there is plenty of wind driven lake enhanced and lake effect snow with solid ratios to follow. Most should have fun! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 2:51 PM, tim123 said: Dave you will like the wrfs as well. Expand Thanks! It looks much better. The NAM definitely caught the shift west early but maybe over did it? Watch the NWS change their maps in a hurry. They’ve been following the 3k closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 2:54 PM, rochesterdave said: Thanks! It looks much better. The NAM definitely caught the shift west early but maybe over did it? Watch the NWS change their maps in a hurry. They’ve been following the 3k closely. Expand I'd suspect they will change it this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 2:54 PM, 96blizz said: Good news is those advisories only go to 7PM tomorrow and there is plenty of wind driven lake enhanced and lake effect snow with solid ratios to follow. Most should have fun! Expand Love the attitude. I’d be in a closet banging my head against a wall. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 2:26 PM, wolfie09 said: 3k nam is pretty wet, not all snow verbatim but we take lol Looks like around 1.75" liquid near BM in Oswego.. Expand I don't see why backside snow can't bring 12"+ (2 day) totals to northern Wayne, Cayuga and western Oswego Co.. Even if the front side underperforms. That's basically what the RGEM has been hinting at for days. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Alright I'm back to consciousness 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 I’m gonna try not to puke out models today but you can see why the 3k moved like it did. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 2:57 PM, BuffaloWeather said: Alright I'm back to consciousness Expand You have to read 20 pages of posts to find out, lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankees102110 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 12z hi res nam. My area is circled. I notice a lot of times people only post from like central NY into western NY. Not a lot of us eastern upstate NY’ers on here. Nevertheless I still enjoy reading through all the post. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Even icon limits dry slot and mixing. Puts buffalo and roc under really heavy rates for 6 hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 2:56 PM, rochesterdave said: Love the attitude. I’d be in a closet banging my head against a wall. Lol. Expand Meh. I grew up in NJ. This is NOTHING when it comes to disappointment!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 I have to LOL that map for obviously reasons.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 3:09 PM, wolfie09 said: I have to LOL that map for obviously reasons.. Expand The rainy thunderstorm overhead? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 3:09 PM, wolfie09 said: I have to LOL that map for obviously reasons.. Expand The green spot over syracuse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Purple is 1.50+" liquid on the HREF mean 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 3:10 PM, tim123 said: The green spot over syracuse? Expand Lol.. Yeah it has a big blob of yellow right over matt and SW Oswego at that frame.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 3:05 PM, yankees102110 said: 12z hi res nam. My area is circled. I notice a lot of times people only post from like central NY into western NY. Not a lot of us eastern upstate NY’ers on here. Nevertheless I still enjoy reading through all the post. Expand Things are looking up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 MAX ensemble on HREF through Monday evening. Probably a few more inches additional thereafter near the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Rgem crushes rochester. Entire area does good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 3:15 PM, tim123 said: Rgem crushes rochester. Entire area does good. Expand 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On Pivotal it seems the maps don’t account anything for sleet. I think it’s like 3 or 5:1 so you could get 2-4” of snow a half inch or inch of sleet and then powder on top. Staying power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 3:18 PM, BuffaloWeather said: Expand Most of it falls in a 12 hour period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 3:19 PM, 96blizz said: On Pivotal it seems the maps don’t account anything for sleet. I think it’s like 3 or 5:1 so you could get 2-4” of snow a half inch or inch of sleet and then powder on top. Staying power. Expand I think it does account for sleet. Gives syr 1.1 liquid but only 7 inches of snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 3:05 PM, yankees102110 said: 12z hi res nam. My area is circled. I notice a lot of times people only post from like central NY into western NY. Not a lot of us eastern upstate NY’ers on here. Nevertheless I still enjoy reading through all the post. Expand Good luck up there. Models have been pretty consistent with plastering the ridges west of the Hudson. Hope it works out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 3:05 PM, yankees102110 said: 12z hi res nam. My area is circled. I notice a lot of times people only post from like central NY into western NY. Not a lot of us eastern upstate NY’ers on here. Nevertheless I still enjoy reading through all the post. Expand There are a few of us here, but this storm, as well as most lake effect events are not typically ours to get too excited about. It depends on the storm. When last December's storm dropped 20-40" from Binghamton to Albany, I am guessing more of us from this area posted about it. Excited to see what happens further west. I'm happy for them too, as they don't get to see too many synoptic storms like this! It's a pretty good group here overall, and even if there are more posters from out west, they won't hold it against you for getting excited about the next coastal that buries ENY. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 16, 2022 Author Share Posted January 16, 2022 HRRR looking better, no ? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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