96blizz Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 NWS Binghamton briefing. Their warnings and advisories don’t include lake effect but they do add that here for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 3 hour liquid totals on rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 P & C forecast has 7-11” tonight, 7-11” tomorrow and 1-2” tomorrow night lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 6 hour total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 6 hour snow totals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Tim, why don’t you include the model and the time period when you post maps? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Event totals 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Just now, CNY_WX said: Tim, why don’t you include the model and the time period when you post maps? Sorry these are rgem. I am screen shooting them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, tim123 said: Event totals What kills me is it shows Ithaca getting about 14 inches and Syracuse less than 9. Matt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Looks like WPC added some mixing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: What kills me is it shows Ithaca getting about 14 inches and Syracuse less than 9. Matt? Sucks. Reality here is longitude matters big time in the transition / dry slot area. Even a 25-50 mile bump SE can help many here and really hurt no one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Looks like WPC added some mixing.. Oh like this forum has been talking about for 4 days. Lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 We saw this coming. ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Oneida, Onondaga, Chemung, Tompkins, Madison, Cortland and Tioga counties. * WHEN...From 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow starts this evening, then changes to a mix late tonight, then back to snow Monday morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Precipitation Type/Snow:Water Ratios... The strong surge of warm advection in the warm conveyor driven by the 80+ knot southeasterly low level jet may bring enough warm air aloft into play to allow for a brief mix with sleet tonight for a few hours. The mix with sleet may last a little longer across Central NY and the southern Tug Hill region. Across Western NY, the mix with sleet will be brief enough to not significantly impact snow amounts, but it will hold down amounts in Central NY to some extent. Snow:Water ratios tonight in the warm conveyor will likely be fairly low, around 10:1 or even a little lower. A deep isothermal layer beneath the dentritic growth zone in the mid levels suggests heavily rimed conglomerates resulting in an "icy" snow initially. Snow:Water ratios will steadily increase from west to east on Monday as the thermodynamic structure improves within the deformation zone, and as the column cools. By late Monday afternoon ratios will likely be 18:1 or better, especially in areas of developing lake enhancement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 6z Euro tracked from Elmira to Old Forge but still delivers a solid slug of waa snow on the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Hrrr is solid for the first part of the event, it has 1 hr of mixing that just pops up around 3-4 am lol Through Sunday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 19 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Looks like WPC added some mixing.. Technically that is not WPC adding it. Those graphics include the NDFD forecasts which are issued by the NWS forecast offices. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 32 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: Tim, why don’t you include the model and the time period when you post maps? LOL, also why is it always centered on his backyard too 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 I never knew were Monroe county was until about 4 days ago. Now I’m gladly reminded every hr 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Rapid refresh model. 4 inch a hour rates? Buffalo and syracuse are there too. Tobo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 15 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: 6z Euro tracked from Elmira to Old Forge but still delivers a solid slug of waa snow on the front end. That’s actually not bad here. Not sure how realistic it is though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 The HRRR pops 30+ inches for anyone on the southern shore of Lake Erie haha. Have fun up there guys! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Hrrr with ratios and lake snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Flying MXZ said: That’s actually not bad here. Not sure how realistic it is though. Yeah I'm not holding my breath. The NAM is much warmer and starting to look more believable with every passing run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Just now, BGM Blizzard said: Yeah I'm not holding my breath. The NAM is much warmer and starting to look more believable with every passing run. Definitely jogged SE at 12z 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 14 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: I never knew were Monroe county was until about 4 days ago. Now I’m gladly reminded every hr Also, the county of my hometown. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 9 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: The HRRR pops 30+ inches for anyone on the southern shore of Lake Erie haha. Have fun up there guys! That's where I'm headed! Psyched 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, MGorse said: Also, the county of my hometown. Well then let’s bash it some more lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Pretty noticeable shift east with mix and dry slot on nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 6 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Well then let’s bash it some more lol Well now, I am glad I did not name the actual town! LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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